As a larger and more pronounced “correction in risk” draws near – we’ll likely get “on more” attempt at new highs – regardless of what’s already underway in currency markets.
It also looks pretty clear to me that this will line up “right on the money” with the ol standard correlation of weaker stocks = stronger dollar, or at least for the initial “zig” of the “soon to be created” series of lower highs and lower lows.
As per the last 6 – 8 months these “zigs n zags” will often see “inverse movement” on smaller time frames, as the “cross winds of influence” push and pull in a generally “confusing manner”.
Sounds like a bunch of hooey doesn’t it? Now try trading it.
To be honest – we really can’t say for certain how things will shake out when / if we do finally get our first “real and true” correction in risk, as it’s been so long, and so much has changed since last time.
For currency traders here’s a mind bender. Do not be surprised at all to see BOTH the Japanese Yen AS WELL the U.S Dollar rise TOGETHER. So if you see the currency pair USD/JPY moving lower – it means that JPY is rising MORE than USD – get it? I thought not.
Otherwise, as suggested by JSkogs ( reader / trader “profesionale”) consideration of where U.S Bonds will go, and of course Gold.
As all four of these assets ( JPY , USD , U.S Treasuries and Gold ) have all at one time or another represented “a play for safety” – it remains to be seen which will take the lions share, when indeed safety is sought.
I for one can’t see the U.S Bonds doing anything but “bouncing”, and am positive that the Japanese Yen will blow people’s faces off, if only for an incredible blast higher.
I’d “like to think” that any USD bounce will be short-lived ( and certainly not a macro change in trend ) and that Gold yes gold…….finally makes its turn.
It will be very interesting for those of us who’ve been trading markets prior to 2008 ( and I can only imagine for those who’ve been trading longer ) to see how this plays out.
I plan on it been equally profitable as well.
Thoughts welcome as always!