Oil Bottom – Long Entry Here

Play is any way you like, perhaps even a quick options trade in USO if that’s your thing.

Very low risk / high reward trade getting long oil here.

I follow /CL futures, and see a pretty solid level of support here, and in the short-term time frames – a solid move higher shaping up.

Go easy, make nice.

34 Responses

  1. Jworthy January 9, 2014 / 2:38 pm

    Thanks Kong! Appreciate the “Actionable idea.”

    I’ve been buying some BP the last few weeks so this is a nice tailwind.

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 2:41 pm

      Nice work Jworthy.

      As per my criteria, this looks like a very solid trade.

      Don’t get married to it – but risk vs reward here looks like a no brainer.

      • JSkogs January 9, 2014 / 2:46 pm

        If you look at oil seasonality as well the next few weeks make for great long trades. I’ll be reloading an cl futures contract soon again

        • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 2:47 pm

          That’s got us on the same page man…..as per usual.

          • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 2:55 pm

            As well for all reading – Careydina and other AUD/JPY shorts.

            I’ve scratched the trade for a couple pips – and see that markets may be setting up for a “feeble push higher” as USD now showing weakness.

            My feelings are…..I could easily hold AUD/JPY but imagine that she “might pop” back to the high end of the range around 94.00 so…..bank a couple bucks, reduce market exposure and get “back on the hunt” for another entry short.

            No change in bigger picture thinking…just a short term squiggle that I’ll take the time to bank / wait / re load.

            I hope it helps.

      • Careydina January 9, 2014 / 7:49 pm

        Yep Kong, aud/jpy very quiet these 2 days. So i closed all positions and wait for the next one 🙂 thanks

        • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 7:56 pm

          OK Careydina ya….a couple pips on either side, as AUD sits “flat” for the most part.

          Give it a day er two, reduce exposure , and go out and do something fun!

          It “will” come – just long enough grinding sideways for me.

  2. Carlos January 9, 2014 / 2:53 pm

    I like that play. Thanks for the heads up!

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 2:57 pm


      Go easy…..watch it another day even but…..

      Kong say buy!

      He he he….

  3. rolo January 9, 2014 / 3:39 pm

    thanks Kong – picked up USO after your call – hammer candle ish today – looks like great risk reward trade

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 3:40 pm

      You know me…..more time “out of markets” than “in” so….

      Hope it’s a good one for ya.

  4. rolo January 9, 2014 / 3:42 pm

    UCO not USO – more kick

  5. slimpickens January 9, 2014 / 5:39 pm

    Email from your boy Gary Savage to his AP subscribers 2PM EST:
    I just noticed that oil has signaled a failed IC today. Again I have to wonder if oil is leading the stock market into
    a correction. For those interested there could be a possible short trade in oil for the next 3-4 weeks. I’m guessing oil would bottom at roughly the same time as stocks, and stocks should have about 20-30 days before the ICL is due.
    ( Poor guys been on a real bad run lately. )

    Kong, I don’t know anything about forex but I read your blog everyday…Informative and damn entertaining dude! thanks
    (UCO Feb 28 calls…I leverage like a gorilla!)

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 5:59 pm

      Don’t leverage like a “_______-“!

      I don’t leverage / risk jack squat so……read / laugh / contribute….but go easy when trading!!

      • slimpickens January 9, 2014 / 6:35 pm

        What’s wrong with a little leverage? You telling me you made 130% last year without it? And by the way….what’d jew call me?

        • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 7:42 pm

          Lol…..too funny, yes yes it’s a part of trading and too be respected.

          To be honest – I rarely expose more than a third of my actual capital so for the most part – don’t “really” use leverage.

          But I have been known to step on the gas here and there as well..

          He he he…..be safe ma man!

  6. Kalahari January 9, 2014 / 6:18 pm

    Kong what’s your feeling on CAD being influenced by oil price. Just feel that CAD has fallen and is due a bounce. And with the oil price looking to bounce this could tie in nicely with some CAD pairs. mainly looking at AUD/CAD weakening soon.

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 7:50 pm

      Interesting pair choice, and considering I’ve got firm belief AUD is moving lower – makes sense.

      However – NOT at this particular junction / certainly not today / tomorrow / next day.

      97.50 areas looks good to me – so I’ll throw it on my radar ( as I normally don’t trade two commods against one another ) and will post as to when I see it making the turn.

  7. Kalahari January 9, 2014 / 7:59 pm

    ok thanks for that just need to be patient

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 8:04 pm

      You bet….great trade idea / concept……but I’m sure you’ll get a better entry.

      Lets look for 97.50 even 98

  8. JSkogs January 9, 2014 / 8:21 pm

    Thanks for the tip on AUDJPY. I locked in some good profits with CADJPY and some…kinda lame profits with AUDJPY but green is green. Hey you don’t trade USDCAD much do you? Potential reversal it looks like. I guess the two economies are so closely linked its a bit like a European vs European currency trade? Just not sure how short will perform in a risk correction.

    • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 8:31 pm

      USD/CAD is a pain in the ass man…

      As it stands ya….it looks ready for “correction” – ya but to where/what??

      Endless range with occasional spikes in “either direction”. No real rhyme or reason based on USD moves / fundamentals and ya – geographically / trade / linked etc NOT being top of my list.


      It does look like a decent short term trade.

      • JSkogs January 9, 2014 / 8:33 pm

        Kind of affirmed what I was thinking. Probably won’t bother. Thanks for the input!

        • Forex Kong January 9, 2014 / 8:35 pm

          I’d keep an eye on it…but I’d have a bit of a wait before thinking of going short USD/CAD

  9. Anonymous January 9, 2014 / 10:59 pm

    Thanks! I took 30 ticks on a quick short today. Will be watching tomorrow.

  10. schmederling January 9, 2014 / 11:01 pm

    Hey Dr. Kong,

    AUD/USD setting up here for a move…. direction yet to be determined but have a full range of set-ups running in multiple Time-frames…. and finally a daily squeeze set-up! Will see how the lower TF fire off & will scale in from there…..

    Cheers Schmed,

  11. schmederling January 9, 2014 / 11:10 pm

    Something brewing in AUD/USD……. Will see how the lower TF’s fire off as I have set-ups running & even the Daily is working on something for us here…..

      • schmederling January 10, 2014 / 8:16 am

        Long the Aussie…. 🙂 will bail if I am wrong but positive fires lighting up here….

  12. Harold Cow C January 10, 2014 / 12:35 am

    What do you think of gbp/aud
    Will it drop 200 pips before rising again

  13. schmederling January 10, 2014 / 8:21 am

    long PM’s as well but have been for over a week now….. we will see how this plays out….:)
    Cheers Schmed,

    • JSkogs January 10, 2014 / 9:15 am

      Ya it kind of looks like the technical and fundamentals for PMs are starting to line up

  14. JSkogs January 10, 2014 / 8:53 am

    Looking like yen bottom is in…..at least for a little while. Big jobs miss. Dollar crumple?

  15. schmederling January 10, 2014 / 7:35 pm

    Daily Aussie Squeeze still running – once it fire’s off then I will look for the move to complete & dump…. should run a couple more days one would think…

    Cheers Schmed,

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