Future Moves In USD – The Case For Higher

I can’t stand The U.S Dollar.

You know that…..everyone knows that. The actions of The U.S Federal Reserve with it’s complete and total disrespect for the currency and continued abuse of it’s position as the “world’s reserve currency” is enough to make anyone sick.

So when would we start looking for USD to move higher? Why would we even “consider there a chance” for this beaten down piece of junk to go anywhere but down the toilet?


What many fail to understand is that “the value of a given” currency can only be deemed in “comparison” to another currency…or another asset. The pieces of paper themselves carry no intrinsic value what so ever.

Consideration of “dollar strength or weakness” as compared to a single thing ( like The Euro for example ) is ridiculous as….it is exactly that – a “comparison” of only two given currencies.


How’s the U.S Dollar stacking up against The Canadian Dollar?


Looks like a fantastic buy opportuntiy as USD has merely “pulled back” vs Cad.



USD vs CHF looks like a pretty classic reversal over the past few months, making a higher high, breaking the series of lower lows and lower highs. A swing low “somewhere in here” would mark a fantastic entry point long.

What about Crude Oil?


Pretty straight forward. When the price of something “goes down” in can equally be argued that the “value of the money” you are using to purchase such products has “gone up”.

What many just can’t wrap their heads around ( one dumb fellow in particular ) is that “there is no blanket statement” in considering being “long or short” USD as it only depends “against what”?

Another chart “sniffing out” coming USD strength:



A good indication of a stonger dollar can be seen when Emerging Markets start to fall.

Imagine all that “free paper money” printed by The Fed and in turn “invested abroad” as to actually get some return ( you don’t actually think the banks invest the money they get from The Fed in “America” do you? – Please.) piling back into U.S bank accounts / converted back to U.S with concern for a possible rise in interest rates.

An absolute “sunami” of USD floods out of Emerging Markets and back into the United States, on even the smallest “hint” that interest rates may rise.

But……Interest rates ARE rising! In fact….( how soon you forget ) that interest rates on the 10 year U.S Treasury have DOUBLED in the past year and a half!



Rising interest rates cramp corporate borrowing and in turn kill bottom lines. A rise in rates pushes USD up, as well equities down.

Rates have already reversed, adding more fuel to the fire if considering a stronger dollar.

The short term squiggles are more or less meaningless at this point as…..The Fed and Central Banks abroad are just doing what they can to grind this thing a little longer before shit hit’s the fan.

How much longer can they keep this propped up? Not much longer if you ask me.


Are We There Yet Mom? – Trading The Chop

Divergence is off the charts across any number of currency pairs, and can most certainly be seen across a number of other assets / indices.

Regardless of “price” – it’s the “strength” of the move that continues to dwindle day after day.

I remember a time some months ago, when price would hit and area of overhead resistance or underlaying support and “actually reverse” as opposed to “just sitting there” for days on end.

These days ( at least as it pertains to currencies ) it’s become common place for price to spend days, if not even “weeks” just hanging there. No reversal…..no “counter move” no nothing.

As a trader, all you can do is continue to grind through. I know it’s hard.

Perhaps today we finally get “an actual move”.


Negative U.S GDP – Just How Negative?

All eyes on U.S GDP numbers this morning to “once again see” if this market “finally” looks to recognize the deteriorating fundamental picture.

This is the third “revision” of first quarter GDP ( I have no idea how/why it’s the 3rd time this number is estimated but… ) it’s expected to come in around -1.8% Yes…..that’s “negative growth” for the first quarter of 2014 folks.

What’s interesting with our trading is that…..we’ve effectively “gone long USD” to a certain degree in taking profits across GBP/USD, EUR/USD as well USD/CHF now holding long USD vs NZD, AUD and CAD with the long JPY trades still in play.

I hope that members come to recognize how “fluid” this trading can be as……the fundamental landscape may change “underneath” while we move with the “swings” and keep ourselves nimble.

This can obviously go two ways here this morning….so please be very alert / numble / ready to act. Yesterday’s bizarre “late day reversal” seemed quite telling to me, as we’ve already seen the weakness in Nikkei, the commods ( AUD and NZD ) as well a pretty brutal day for U.S equity bulls so…..

A big day today or not? We should get some solid clarification on USD future movement as a decent move higher here would be quite exciting, possibly putting to rest our “concerns” for USD movement “lower” over the medium term.

Man the battle stations everyone! Today could be a whopper!

Profits Keep Coming – Trading Thru The Chop

A very interesting day here ( so far this morning ) with commodity related currencies running out of steam “just” as equities pop. Hmmmmm……

Short The Canadian Dollar is looking fantastic here via long USD/CAD as well short CAD/JPY at these levels. with the long GBP/AUD ( suggested some days ago ) now several hundred pips in profit.

We’ve exited both long EUR/USD as well short USD/CHF this morning, after taking profits in long GBP/USD ( 200 pip gain there ) some days ago.

Otherwise…..patiently waiting for AUD as well to a certain extent NZD – to make their turns.

Please pull a weekly chart of AUD/USD and have a peak at the “candle” forming as we speak – as well the continued “downward sloping RSI”.

The chop has been tough on many, but continues to provide many profitable trades…..you’ve just got to be willing to do a little extra work….and be very, very patient.

Check us out at: Forex Trading With Kong – Getting Started.

Investment Ants – Do As Ants Do

Indulge me for a moment as “I” – am like “you”.

Imagine yourself for moment – as an ant. One of many ants on the farm.

Living out your life, sandwiched between two panes of glass, sitting atop some desk somewhere in some kids bedroom or perhaps atop a desk at oh…..let’s say the Federal Reserve.

Years ago, your grandparents lived out their lives there as well. Innocently going about their business day-to-day, completely unaware of the immense curiosity “looming” outside the confines and safety of the farm.

“Hey Allan……you know….it’s been just over 5 years now staring at this damn ant farm of yours.”

“Have you ever wondered what would happen if you just…..you know – flipped it upside down”?

“Let’s do it! They’re ants for Petes sake! Let’s flip this thing upside down and see what happens!”

Low and behold. Magically…….everybody lands on their feet.

After a brief period of confusion “somehow” the ants just “accept it”… start to rebuild, and continue on their way. No glass broken…no “collective ball” near the exit at the top no. Just ants…completely unaware……doing what ants do.

The first time was a gamble sure….as The Fed had no idea “what might happen” but……these days?

Shit…….these days? They shake that thing up….flick paperclips at it, and will most certainly “once again” – turn things upside all-knowing……

We ants will just keep doing what ants do.


Turning Japanese – Trading The Weeks Ahead

Currency wise….little can be said. The chart of USD/JPY says it all.

This is “not” a time to consider individual economies / monetary policy / economic data of any specific country as……it’s really not about that now.



With such an extended move in “risk” all the while rapidly eroding fundamentals “world wide”…..we are faced with a very simple trade / principal with far more “significant implications” than the simple economic “rattlings” of a given country on any given day of any week.

Short term traders ( looking for an easy buck ) will have been ( and will continue to be ) completely blown to bits here as……..there is no short term trade.

100 pips ( represently fluctuation of a single cent ) jump like popcorn here, as do extended periods of time where a given currency pair just “pulls you off side” then spends days hanging in no man’s land ( sound familiar? ).

Nothing is going anywhere until this “distribution and repositioning” has run it’s course.

The obvious question at hand………………when?

I continue to watch the “continued strength” in JPY ( regardless of the lack of movement across JPY pairs ) as well the “expected reversal in Nikkei” as leading indicators – market wide.

We can’t be far off now.




Scratching the surface here these days at the free blog. For more on specific trades / entries / real time trading come join us at www.forexkong.net



Gold Going Down – Snake Oil Salesmen As Well

How is it that you continue to flush your money down the toilet?

It’s been pointed out here time and time again that “gold is not a trade” yet you continue to “buy the snake oil” these chicken shit / bullshit / con artist / “financial bloggers” keep selling you.

Perhaps you’ve gotten lazy, and have put your trust in others to “navigate the mine field for you” well……..

That’s just plain stupid.

Gold is going lower because ( big fat light bulb above your head )……Gold is going lower.

I’m not “selling you the reason”. I don’t need a chart.

You’ve got to stop looking for the “freebie” ( as you lose your ass ) and start looking at some of this stuff for yourselves.

What could some “clown in a desert” possibly know about the future of Gold – that you can’t just as easily figure out for yourself?

Blank stare…head scratch….akward silence…..dead air…….






Is it any wonder I’ve had little to say as of late?

There finally comes a time where……you’ve seriously “had enough” and just can’t be bothered to explain / rationalize this nonsense.

The Fed “STILL” refuses to spit it out, talking this afternoon as if they are ( rolling on the floor laughing my ass off ) “achieving their goals” and that ( love this ) the U.S economy “continues to expand”.

Again…….laughing my fu$&kin ass off. “Expand”?

Perhaps the “balloned heads” of those on Wall St. and obviously the “waist lines” of the general American populus continue to expand ( a wonderful honor – deemed the “fattest nation” on the planet ) but……the economy???


You boys better get this war going soon as……..even Yellens acting coach is now re watching the tape with consideration that “shit! – we can’t get away with this again”.

Adding short SP 500 at 1940.



Intraday Ramblings – Don't Even Bother

I’m pretty sure that markets will take the 3rd and final “zig/zag” of this correction on the Fed statement tomorrow afternoon.

The Fed must align with the “already downward sloping projections” of both the IMF as well World Bank “admitting” – global growth ( and along with it – U.S growth ) is firmly on the decline.

I expect this to kick off the last little leg down, before ( god knows for what reason other than Central Bank intervention ) markets make one last shot for the highs – completing the “projected market direction” from last weeks report.

Investors may want to consider the next month even, as the last and final stop / place to consider taking serious steps towards portfolio liquidation / protection and a complete “changing of the guard” if you will.

Holding stocks after this final push higher will have you sitting in loss for much longer than it could possibly be worth ( short of the piddly dividends ) tieing up dollars that could easily produce much better returns “actively traded” on the short side so……please be warned. Buy and hold will not survive here. Period. You’re a complete and total idiot holding stocks past Sept – and I will mark this post / welcome you to look back and quote me in fact…..I’m marking it, and will look back to tell you so….

Traders can take a shot at it ( as I will be ) catching the next turn higher and taking it for what it is – a trade.

I will quite likely just “stop and reverse” on EUR/USD, GBP/USD ( re-enter short ) and USD/CHF at the bottom of this correction, sell USD/JPY as well the SP short  – and leave the JPY’s flat / re-evaluate the commodity currencies as……I don’t really expect these to “rocket ship higher” based on a crummy “last-ditch effort” in equity markets.

In any case……watch for another leg lower here in risk on “Fed admission” of lower projected growth in the U.S – then prepare for a quick turn and “last-ditch effort” ( which could still run for weeks if not months ) before markets turn for good late Aug / early Sept.

For members – Real time trades to follow in your inbox. I’m holding all now and will likely add short SP 500 to average in “after Fed” tomorrow, with plans to blow out this trade a few days later.