Author: Forex Kong

Trading Greed – Take Profits Faster

Forex Kong 14 Comments

It’s very difficult trying to “teach” people not to be greedy.

Human nature ( or at least the human nature you “had” before becoming a trader ) pretty much has “greed” wound tightly ’round your genes, and for the most part – that makes sense. Man finds something that he wants / needs, then he wants more, he needs more, and if only driven by the human instinct to “survive” – he looks to “get more”.

What happens when you wake up the morning after your “discovery” and the “more” you where planning to go back for – has disappeared? Overnight – the watering hole has dried up.

Thankfully you took what you could the day before right? Running home to get that “bigger bucket” (to put all that water in) didn’t work out to well for you did it?

You have to learn to take profits when you see them…as in this crazy environment there is absolutely no guarantee they’ll still be there in the morning.

Kong on the scoreboard with 4% returns on trades initiated Monday – now looking at re entry . As well on the CNBC front I’ve actually been pleasantly surprised this week as…..the floating heads have shown considerable restraint ( as I would have expected them to just say  buy, buy , buy ).

China Gets The Gold – U.S Stays Afloat

Forex Kong 28 Comments

Not to shabby really. Two full weeks without a trade alert posted, and Monday the Nikkei closes down some -450 points. I hope you got the tweet. Of the 13 pairs suggested I think maybe “one” didn’t move directly into profit within the first few hours of trading.

A wonderful entry sure, but in this day and age you can’t just rely on that. Would it shock me to see the entire move 100% completely retraced  by tomorrow afternoon? Not in the slightest.

Interesting to see, that of the “safe havens” outlined in a post a few days ago – ALL managed yo move higher as risk aversion took center stage. The U.S Dollar, Bonds, Yen and Gold all moving higher as suggested ( I hope you’ve taken something away here –  a nice lil nugget found laying in the dirt.)

There’s been some talk that the “age-old correlation” between the price of gold and the value of the Australian Dollar has once again “found its way” as the Aussie continues to exhibit “some degree of strength” in a “risk off ” environment. Personally I’m not holding my breath as ( call me crazy but…) I’ve formulated some idea as “what the hell has been going on with Gold” and it doesn’t involve Australia.

Has anyone else considered that the Fed / U.S has actually been “allowing” China to buy gold on the cheap as a backroom / side deal  / means to convert / smooth out the waters as opposed to seeing China dump USD as well as future bond purchases?

Makes perfect sense to me. China says “moving away from USD as well no need for more US denominated debt”, U.S has a heart attack and swings a deal to actually “give” China whatever remaining gold is available for the lowest price possible?

The more I think about – the more sense it makes.

You won’t tolerate our “money printing any longer” so…..please don’t drop the hammer on us just yet – “here’s all our gold reserves as well”.

Manipulation ( short selling in the paper market ) essentially giving China the means to buy gold on the cheap as opposed to more U.S denominated debt no?

I’m positive this has absolutely nothing to do with the Australian Dollar and caution that people are at least “open to the idea”. Call me a wack job……fair enough.

We’ll take it day by day but as it stands, all “short AUD” entries look fine here as of this morning

Gold will be gold, and I’m quite certain the Aussie will continue to find itself on its own “downward trajectory”.

Trade Alert! – Kong Gets Long USD And JPY

Forex Kong 19 Comments

And now………..Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit’s Time!

Clear the deck traders. Do the unthinkable! I’m taking a shot here this morning.

Yes as much as it pains me to do so ( he he….not really ) there are certain dynamics of the currency market that simply cannot be overlooked / overshadowed by one’s own “feelings” or “preferences”.

We’ve been wondering for some time now “if indeed” the U.S Dollar would take its usual “safe haven flows” ( although these days I wouldn’t really call it that but… ) when risk aversion takes hold, and sure enough it looks like we’re there.

I am initiating several trades long both USD as well long JPY, as money comes out of equities in both the U.S as well Japan ( Nikkei indeed rejected at the double top as suggested ), and in turn is repatriated to “cash” in each of these given currencies.

Makes pretty good sense doesn’t it?

I’ve listed the trades I am entering ( at various levels ) based on the fundamental shift from “risk on” ( where safe havens are sold ) to “risk off” ( where safe haven currencies are repatriated / bought ).

Short EUR/USD as well GBP/USD

Short AUD/USD as well NZD/USD.

Short EUR/JPY as well GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

Short USD/JPY.

Short CHF/JPY

Short CAD/JPY

Long USD/CHF

I sincerely hope this will be enough to keep you busy for the next couple days ( and perhaps even weeks ). With so many trades taking shape, there will be alot of management / jumping around to do, so we’ll do our best to stay on top of things day to day.

Why Isn't Fukushima Front Page News?

Forex Kong 9 Comments

I’ve learned everything, I’ve read everything – but I still haven’t “heard” anything!

What the hell is going on? I mean seriously!

We’ve got the Golden Globes front and center on a typical Sunday night here in the West, while a population of 13 Million people in Tokyo sit quietly unaware of the looming disaster only 150 miles away!

150 miles! Can you even imagine! A nuclear accident / disaster that makes Chernobyl look like a beach BBQ, and you’ve got an entire population ( not to mention an entire planet now that Japan has passed the laws “forbidding reporting” on the incident ) sitting in the dark!

Obama and the boys in Britain, France, Canada have sent millions in aid and stepped right up to help  tiny African countries work thru civil “disputes” ( not taking anything away from the horrors there in ) as well helped any number of countries through “national disasters” at the drop of a hat!!

How the hell can the entire world continue to turn a blind eye to what’s really going on in Japan?

It’s like sitting at home in Seattle, and the nuke site is in Vancouver – that close ( with winds blowing at a modest 6 km/h)…..and you’re not making plans to move????

Unreal…..we’ve seen more coverage of a “f$&kin cat stuck down a storm drain” than that of the largest industrial disaster known to mankind, let alone the largest impending threat to our human existence! Where are the news helicopters? Where’s the “minute to minute coverage” of the attempted removal of fuel rods etc?? Where’s the “evacuation plan” when ALL OF JAPAN needs to get off the rock?

How can this not be considered a “global event”? And immediately take the attention of the planets top ranking / thinking / experts in the field to “get their asses over there” and get this thing figured out!

I can’t believe that I will actually have to cross off one of the most highly anticipated travel / food / cultural adventures of my “proposed” future now knowing what I know.

I will never get to sit at “Nobu” in Tokyo and stuff my self to the gills with the finest sushi on the planet, and worse yet – I won’t be able to take anyone to enjoy it with me.

Japan now  – “officially” off limits.

Unreal. I am beyond sad.

 

Reflections On China – Where To Next?

Forex Kong 1 Comment

If you’re not following China’s economic story  in a “day-to-day sense” – I completely understand.

It’s not like you don’t have enough on your plate, with what’s going on in your own lives. Tough enough these days keeping up with the troubles in Europe, or the world’s largest nuclear disaster in Japan, not to mention your kids, employment, your health and likely a million other things far more pressing than “what the hell is really going on” in China.

Well…..I try keep things pretty straight forward here for that reason alone. Gimme the info , no need for a bunch of meaningless numbers and charts etc – just tell me what it amounts to, and how it may affect my investment decisions / trading moving forward. Thank you Kong, have a good day – talk to you later. Fine.

You may recall that China’s leaders had their “Third Plenum” meeting some months ago outlining a list of reforms to be taken on by the country through the coming years. The general gist of this as it may affect you is simple – China needs to move away from the policies centered on “massive and somewhat inefficient growth” to a more sustainable model where support is now given to the “tiny shoots” that may have blossomed as a result.

Simple enough, and simply put – China’s reform policies moving forward will contribute to “a generally slowing economy” as “growth” takes a temporary back seat to “sustainability”.

You also have to appreciate that China “IS” the global growth engine. China is now the largest trading nation in the world in terms of imports and exports, after overtaking the US last year.

The proposed reforms in China make absolute and perfect sense as,  much like a well-tended lawn – you’ve done the work to get that grass growing, it’s up , it’s starting to grow – but you’re certainly not going to “flood it” with a pile more fertilizer now are you?

The implementation of reforms in China will undoubtedly contribute to the slowing of global growth moving forward, but as we’ve all come to recognize / understand – this will only be a small “zig or a zag” in the long-term chart of China’s continued move higher.

Forex Kong On CNBC – All Next Week

Forex Kong 3 Comments

Unfortunately “no” I won’t be appearing on CNBC all of next week, as I really can’t see getting to far past “hair and make up” before going completely “apesh#t” swinging from various parts of the set, and likely “tearing to shreds” any number of “floating heads” found therein.

Did I just hear that brunette haired gal suggest “the Fed might need to consider pulling back on tapering??” BEFORE tapering has even started??

If they’ve got mind reading technology down there fine, but if they continue to simply read Forex Kong daily and “pepper my concepts / suggestions” in amongst the rest of their garbage look out!

He he he….but seriously. What I am going to do next week for the sheer “entertainment value” alone is…..I am going to follow / watch, and actively comment on CNBC for the entire week.

I am going to follow / watch, and actively comment on CNBC for the entire week.

Likely of more interest to American readers ( or perhaps not ) let’s look at next week as a unique opportunity to “really see” just what these people suggest during a time of obvious transition and increasing volatility. I will be watching closely.

So far today I heard another guy say “get long Japan and Europe” as well the brunette “hinting” that perhaps the Fed will need to “pull back on tapering”.

Next week promises to be a week full of fireworks, so we might as well enjoy it right?

I’m going to enjoy it alright. Let’s have some fun shall we?

Have a great weekend everyone.

 

Kongdicator Tweaks – More Time At The Beach

Forex Kong 16 Comments

You know I’d have to say that I’m pretty proud of myself.

A full ten days here in January and I’ve placed a couple of little “feeler traders” here and there, but for the most part haven’t made a single “move” of any real size / conviction. The investment environment has been volatile yet “directionless” as even today ( with the “even worse than expected data” out of the U.S – surprise , surprise there Kong ) we still find ourselves “hovering” around the same levels, with currencies taking people for big rides in both directions, and plenty of questions still hanging in the air.

I think you know where I stand.

The idea of “recovery” in the United States is ridiculous, the stock market is a complete and total fabrication, the idea of “tapering” sounds more ridiculous by the day, and I expect to see global growth “slowing” moving forward.

It’s “the timing” that will be key in order to keep pulling profits.

We’ve still not been given a clear signal as to “what’s gonna happen” when we see risk come off, or even if the Fed will “allow” risk appetite to wane as…….you wonder…at what level would the Fed immediately step back in to prop up markets? ( Gees….I’m already looking “that far ahead”.)

With continued concern as to “which way will USD go”? I remain focused on the “known/obvious” correlation between Japan’s Nikkei and the Yen ( trading inversely as expected ) as opposed to getting caught up in the confusion surrounding USD, and the next turn in markets.

I don’t want to get long USD – but I will if I have to.

I’ve over road signals produced by the Kongdicator these past few days as yes….signal fired “long JPY” on several other pairs other than just AUD/JPY, but I’ve approached this with caution, made a couple tweaks and have now “extended” the entry time “x factor” further away from the time signal is initally issued. So far that has kept me out of markets longer, but also out of “chop” a full 2 or 3 days longer so……an improvement in my eyes.

CNBC Says – Get Long Japan

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Have you lost your mind?

Right now you are sitting in front of a television where a “big fat talking head” named Joshua M Brown ( at http://www.thereformedbroker.com/ ) just told you….YES AMERICA –  to “get long Japan”.

Have you lost your mind?

Perhaps this will be the one time the message gets through. The message from “those of us” outside the influence of American media and the absolute “ridiculous transfer of wealth scheme” every witnessed on planet Earth.

Have you lost your mind?

If I saw this guy pass me by on the street, you’d have to hold me back / stop me from punching him in the knee, then spitting in his ear. It’s completely and totally outrageous.

How do you sleep at night Josh Brown??

Buy The News – If You Can Afford It

Forex Kong 24 Comments

I don’t go digging up these little facts and figures on the U.S Economy myself, as the following “quote” was cute/paste/borrowed from our dear friend Dr Paul Roberts:

“””According to the official wage statistics for 2012, forty percent of the US work force earned less than $20,000, fifty-three percent earned less than $30,000, and seventy-three percent earned less than $50,000. The median wage or salary was $27,519. The amounts are in current dollars and they are compensation amounts subject to state and federal income taxes and to Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes. In other words, the take home pay is less.

To put these incomes into some perspective, the poverty threshold for a family of four in 2013 was $23,550.

In recent years, the only incomes that have been growing in real terms are those few at the top of the income distribution. Those at the top have benefitted from “performance bonuses,” often acquired by laying off workers or by replacing US workers with cheaper foreign labor, and from the rise in stock and bond prices caused by the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing. Everyone else has experienced a decline in real income and wealth.

As only slightly more than one percent of Americans make more than $200,000 annually and less than four-tenths of one percent make $1,000,000 or more annually, there are not enough people with discretionary income to drive the economy with consumer spending.”””

The question begs to be asked: With this many Americans, making so little money – how can you honestly believe they can buy stocks? Let alone support a “consumer recovery”?

The U.S stock/bond market is nothing more than a Fed manipulated/fabricated “scam” put forth in attempt to mask the true state of affairs, and to bolster global confidence for as long as possible before this thing goes off the rails completely.