I’ve been watching the market like a hawk these past 2 days.
I’d spotted the weakness in USD, then in turn the Japanese “Nikkei” pushing up to its prior level of resistance…then it’s rejection, discussed the likelihood of the Japanese Yen (JPY) taking on strength in times of “risk aversion”, and just in the last few hours suggested that commodity currencies are under pressure.
I’ve taken on the “insanity trade”, and have been actively posting just about everything I can ( here and via Twitter, Google+, Linkedin and Facebook) over the past 48 hours as to what I’m looking at – and what I’m up to.
So what the hell – here’s another nugget.
I’ve exited all “USD short” positions, and am currently looking at “risk off” type positioning via “long JPY” ideas, as well a couple other “crafty variations on risk” short AUD as well NZD.
The one variable I’d not really not “nailed down” this time around, was weather or not USD would “fall along side risk aversion” ( as it has several times these past 2 quarters ) OR if the old school correlation of “risk off = USD up” might rear its ugly head once again.
Global “risk aversion” WILL have USD as well JPY shoot for the moon as “safety is sought” on a macro / awesome / unbelievable / nut bar / chaotic / monumental level – while “risk is sold” in equal fashion.
I’m pleased to be free of any USD related trades, and almost hate to say it but…….we “could” ( and I do say “could” ) be close.
Kong “debating long” USD.
JPY pairs are most certainly rolling over here as suggested with Nikkei making it’s daily “swing high”. Commods look weak so that’s pretty much a given trade. What remains to be seen is where we fit the good ol US of D. My “hunch”? – We’ll have to wait a day for that.