forex market analysis

The U.S.D short’s have been amazing, and the profits are in the bank.

Several of the usual trolls lurking ’round Kong have been silenced, and the world is a beautiful place, with both The British Pound as well The Australian Dollar looking a little “top-heavy” here.

I expect a modest bounce in USD and in turn, a pullback in oil and commodity related names in general.

The stock market? You can have it. If waking up every single day to this endless back n forth / see-saw is your idea of a good time…..all power to you. Having “not paid attention to it has been one of the most liberating moves of this entire 2015.

Stocks are going nowhere. Nowhere this month, nowhere next month and then down for the forseeable future.

The US Dollar now at 4 month lows will pop for a small correction “upward” here –  then she’s all down hill.

I’ve finally tracked down the few missing parts for the spaceship still parked on the rooftop, and plan on smuggling them out of Canada mid month June.

I’ve come in contact with some very “tech savvy Canucks” here as of late, and feel that lift off is now “imminent”.

Mrs. Kong has done a bang up job keeping the authorities at bay, as the craft itself has been difficult to disguise. The small crowds that gather out in the front yard have now been disbursed, thanks to a couple $20 Canadian Bills having been passed to my dear friends the “Policia”.

Oh how I love authority. Oh how I love the police. Such kind, warm-hearted gentleman – and only there to help.

Markets look like a runway. Flat as pancakes for you equity guys, while our short US Dollar trades add a whopping 10% over the past few weeks. Plan to book profits here again……and prepare for bounce/next leg down.

The next one takes equities with it.

The only missing piece now being these damn spacesuits. You know…..the moon landings back in the 60’s? Made of paper more or less – and wouldn’t have kept out a single ion of radiation ( of which space is filled ).

At least these days the technology exists. I’ve just got to track it down.

Book’em Dano!

Taking profits short USD today. Bounce then re enter short.

Placing “want ads” now – Interstellar Seamstress needed.

If you are only  “half a moron” O.K fine…….you’re allright.

But if you envision yourself as “full moron” well…….that’s your thing.

COMPLETE MORON…..and now I’m looking to punch you in the knee, spit in your ear, and very likely kick you in the face – as you flounder around…….. reaching for your retainer ( and your Ibankcoin log in info ).

This is truly “complete moron”.

You buy JPY here ( meaning you “short” JPY related pairs such as AUD/JPY etc..) and you go boat shopping.

You dump your winning trades NOW, and you get to cash NOW….you book profits NOW…you go boat shopping NOW!

For forex people….duuhh…short AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY,USD/JPY and every other JPY pair under the planet.

Abe won’t be thrilled.

It’s my feeling that this continued sideways action is likely to persist into early May – giving us little “tradeable action” in any kind of medium term sense.

The following charts really don’t suggest any advantage “bullish or bearish” as these longer term “triangle patterns” continue to plod along to the ultimate point of confluence – when a solid direction will ultimately be seen.

It’s a real drag. It can’t be helped, but what is important is being able to identify it for what it is….and trading ( or not trading ) accordingly. I for one see no real advantage putting money at risk here…..until of course we see something solid unfold.

How long can this go on?

It can “and will” continue as long as the big boys continue to plan and plot positions, dragging in as much retail money as they possibly can before pulling the pin.

I’ve essentially given up trying to convince anyone that the best possible thing to do at this junction is to bank your profits, call it a “good run” and politely move to the sidelines – while the final stages of this “massive distribution at the top” plays out as….human beings will be human beings.

Greed generally being the driving force. I’ve learned enough over the years to appreciate that, there is very little “more” one can expect to milk from this thing on the long side of risk, and that it makes the most sense to just get yourself prepared and positioned for the next move lower so……..if you want to push it – feel free but so so with caution.

USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

We can see that most anything “USD related” continues to grind sideways until this triangle finally resolves itself. Resolving lower in my view so……I don’t see any “edge” jumping into larger positions short of just letting it play out.

EUR/USD – nothing to really offer.

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

Looking at a weekly chart I’d be more inclined to watch GBP for a better risk vs reward.

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

With consideration for JPY related pairs…they look pretty ripe for short entries anywhere in here with AUD/JPY suggesting that “risk” could just as well turn lower any day.

AUD_JPY_April_20_Forex_Kong

I’m looking for another decent down day in risk, and an opportunity to get short the JPY related pairs here very soon, while waiting on USD realted pairs to finally show their hand.

I don’t have any interest in jumping into anything short of seeing something “solid” develop as far as trend goes.

This is not a trending environment regardless of the usual day to day bullshit media suggesting things are “always going higher”.

The big up day in DOW today was widely promoted as “a huge upswing in stocks” while most people have already forgotten Friday’s wipeout. Net net….its – 78 in my books over the past 2 days right?

Sheep will be sheep.

Small orders if tading at all. Waiting for a shoe to drop.