Up Then Down – Forex Markets Wobble

It’s my feeling that this continued sideways action is likely to persist into early May – giving us little “tradeable action” in any kind of medium term sense.

The following charts really don’t suggest any advantage “bullish or bearish” as these longer term “triangle patterns” continue to plod along to the ultimate point of confluence – when a solid direction will ultimately be seen.

It’s a real drag. It can’t be helped, but what is important is being able to identify it for what it is….and trading ( or not trading ) accordingly. I for one see no real advantage putting money at risk here…..until of course we see something solid unfold.

How long can this go on?

It can “and will” continue as long as the big boys continue to plan and plot positions, dragging in as much retail money as they possibly can before pulling the pin.

I’ve essentially given up trying to convince anyone that the best possible thing to do at this junction is to bank your profits, call it a “good run” and politely move to the sidelines – while the final stages of this “massive distribution at the top” plays out as….human beings will be human beings.

Greed generally being the driving force. I’ve learned enough over the years to appreciate that, there is very little “more” one can expect to milk from this thing on the long side of risk, and that it makes the most sense to just get yourself prepared and positioned for the next move lower so……..if you want to push it – feel free but so so with caution.



We can see that most anything “USD related” continues to grind sideways until this triangle finally resolves itself. Resolving lower in my view so……I don’t see any “edge” jumping into larger positions short of just letting it play out.

EUR/USD – nothing to really offer.



Looking at a weekly chart I’d be more inclined to watch GBP for a better risk vs reward.



With consideration for JPY related pairs…they look pretty ripe for short entries anywhere in here with AUD/JPY suggesting that “risk” could just as well turn lower any day.



I’m looking for another decent down day in risk, and an opportunity to get short the JPY related pairs here very soon, while waiting on USD realted pairs to finally show their hand.

I don’t have any interest in jumping into anything short of seeing something “solid” develop as far as trend goes.

This is not a trending environment regardless of the usual day to day bullshit media suggesting things are “always going higher”.

The big up day in DOW today was widely promoted as “a huge upswing in stocks” while most people have already forgotten Friday’s wipeout. Net net….its – 78 in my books over the past 2 days right?

Sheep will be sheep.

Small orders if tading at all. Waiting for a shoe to drop.





1 Response

  1. starmoon May 11, 2015 / 3:44 pm

    whooaa..nice Analysis dude..so Complete and simple..
    whats MA you use ? SMA,EMA or what ?
    keep it up…

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