Held Hostage By Markets – Take The Pain!

This thing must be grinding your nerves to mush.

I’ve learned over as many years that “sideways” is a market dynamic that you “must” learn to deal with in order to survive. As the days grind on it gets easier and easier to just say “screw this!” and make some kind of a decision based in pure “emotion”.

That’s the idea. This type of market activity grinds equally on both sides, as bulls see “paper profits” diminishing, while bears can’t get enough traction to make a trade pay at all. The idea is to extract as much money from each sides as possible.

And there it is.

These days, it seems that “every day” brings reason for markets to just “sit there”. Waiting for the U.S to “go to war or not”, waiting for the U.S to “taper or not”, waiting for the U.S to “default/shutdown/ raise the debt ceiling” or not. See any pattern here?

Can these jack asses throw anything else on the pile while they’re at it?

You’ve got to just push through and not allow yourself to give in to it. That’s exactly what you’re supposed to do right?  Bulls continue to pile in on easing, bears pile in on “default speculation”.

Then “whoooooosh”! – both get their clocks cleaned.

I feel for you if you’re feeling the heat here. Markets are grinding nerves to pieces ( and I’ll say myself included). We need a move here, and you’ll want to be on the right side of it. Can the risk vs reward actually support further upside in “risk on”?

Stock Market Crash! – Monday Get Out!

He he he……gotcha.

Let’s get something straight here. When I make the suggestion of “a top” or (as I have been since April) a “topping process” – I don’t mean the world is gonna come crashing down around you like in some bullshit movie out of Hollywood.

The financial “powers that be” already got their wake up call in 2008 with Lehman Bros etc and it’s pretty much a given that we won’t be seeing something like that happening again anytime soon.

There is no “doomsday prophecy” here, no “go buy guns n ammo” cuz they’re coming for your gold, no “end of the world scenario’s” no. This stuff rolls out in “real time” and navigating the peaks n valley’s these days just gets tougher and tougher, as the situation gets more desperate.

We know the “coordinated Central Bank effort” is flooding the planet with cash, and we know the tensions between East and West are intensifying. We know the world’s largest consumer economy is still struggling to get back on its feet ( if ever ) and we also know that the large majority of people involved with investment / finance are hell-bent on making it so.

Global appetite for risk comes “on” and it comes “off”. Simple as that. Identifying these times can be extremely profitable for those who choose to fight it out in the trenches.

If you actually think you can weather “buy and hold” when a mere 10% correction in U.S equities has the potential to wipe your account to zero then fine! Do it! Buy all you can tomorrow – and disregard concern for the “global appetite for risk”.

I call it like I see it, and I see a lot.

I’m not particularly “optimistic” about the next few years but that doesn’t mean I think the world is gonna end.

You choose to trade, or you choose to invest. DON’T CONFUSE THE TWO.

Sorry about the misleading headline although – seriously………it’s all I can do these days not to “go completely mad” writing about this day after day. It “may” happen again but at least just this once….give ol Kong a break. (I bet you read the damn thing as fast you could get it open).

Forgive me.

We’ve ok here………………………..at least for Monday.

written by F Kong

It's A Currency War So – War On!

It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day “up’s n downs” of the markets.

A couple of days go by, you make a buck , then you lose a couple. Then slowly but surely the intraday / micro stuff “becomes your world”. Obsessed with the tiny “zigs and zags” that make up your charts, confounded by the “barage” of daily news – you’ve lost touch. You’ve lost your focus.

Have you forgotten?

Have you forgotten that we are smack dab in the middle of one of the most vicious currency wars of the past few decades – let alone your entire lifetime??

And you wonder why thing aren’t going so well.

A number of prior posts come to mind, in particular: https://forexkong.com/2013/01/31/2013-you-will-never-trade-it/ but that’s beside the point. The point is…..you’ve got to get a handle on you environment before you go running off into the sunset!

The zigs and zags will always be there. It’s the environment that changes.

Do you get all excited about going fishing in the rain?

That being said Japan has no idea what to do with respect to the Fed’s move yesterday, as markets are clearly stunned. My printing press , your printing press etc.. It’s “war on” people – no question about it.

In general we are seeing “all fiat currencies” falling, and it’s only a matter of “which is falling more” when considering your trade plan.

There is no “strength”.

The Revenge Trade – Don't Do It

A common psychological reaction for traders ( when presented with a situation such as we’ve seen today ) is to jump in / make assumptions / over trade / freak out / spazz with the notion that:

  • I’ve missed something so huge and now I MUST find a way to be a part of it.
  • I’ve lost so much money on the wrong side of this move that I MUST place another trade in the opposite direction.
  • I’ve now got this nailed down to an “absolute science “and will now look to double / triple my exposure as I’m sure to be a millionaire come sunrise.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Patience young grasshoppa.

  • Yes you’ve missed something huge ( I did ). No big deal. These things happen many times throughout a year, and if you’ve survived at all – just be thankful.
  • If you’ve lost so much money that you are compelled to place a “revenge trade” ( or even considering trading based essentially in your “need for revenge” – I COMMAND YOU TO STOP! – YOU ARE NOT TRADING……..YOU ARE GAMBLING.
  • You made out really well and should be very pleased with yourself. Now take your profits ……go buy yourself ( and your family and friends ) something nice, and DON’T EXPECT THE SAME THING TO HAPPEN AGAIN TOMMOROW.

The psychology of trading will be the one element you struggle with the most, as most of you will likely blow your accounts long before you ever really address it – or have the opportunity to work on it at all.

You need to stay in the game…………………………… long enough to “understand the game”.

O"Bomb"A Doesn't Choose The Next Fed Head

You’ll need to look back a lot further than most of your are interested.

Back to the war of 1812, and back even further to get your head wrapped around the “Rothschild Family”, Free Masonry and the birth of Central Banking.

Main stream media would have you believe this to be “conspiracy theory”, conjured up by a bunch of disgruntled whack jobs – but you’re used to that right? You watch it every single day on your television screens. The truth that is (right).

Incredibly you still find ways to “justify” why your investments just keep costing you money.  “Ya the market’s going for shit”, “Damn, I guess Europe caused it”, “Wow…War in Syria”….all the while Central Banks plotting every move.

You’d need to have your head examined if you don’t see / understand that Obama doesn’t “choose” the next head of the Federal Reserve. Larry Summers “stepping out of the race” is more likely due to death threats or sizeable pressure on Obama ( from….hmm I wonder who?) from external influences – the forces that DO CHOOSE the next head of the Federal Reserve.

Central Banks ( and in particular the Federal Reserve) sit one notch “above” government – and if you don’t believe it then ask yourself this:

Why the f#/%K would a government have a need to “borrow money” from an independent entity holding an exclusive license to “print that money” ? And in turn “pay interest” to this entity?!?!

Open your eyes!

It’s no wonder I need keep this blog anonymous as – I’m now concerned that “the men in black” may be lurking outside my home. Funny stuff – yet …not really so funny.

 

 

Raise Cash – Don't Be A Hero

I’ve touched on this a couple of times before.

When trading ahead of what we in the biz refer to as a “risk event”, you’ve seriously got to question “why” you’d look to take on any additional risk in “getting it wrong”. The fact of the matter is – you’ve got absolutely no clue how it’s going to pan out, and you’ve got no good reason to “trade it” if not looking at it as a complete and total “roll of the dice”. You want to gamble – fine. Take a small percentage of your account, have fun with it, take your chances and hope for the best.

That’s “NOT” how I roll.

This Wednesday’s Fed meeting, and expected announcement of reduced stimulus,  is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated and potentially dangerous “risk event” we will have seen in markets in at least the last couple years.

You cannot afford to be on the wrong side of it.

Reading/researching over the weekend , I’ve come to the conclusion that the bond market has clearly priced in the news, but that U.S equities haven’t moved a muscle, and that forex markets are hanging in wait.

I will look for any “and every” opportunity over the next 72 hours to eliminate exposure, take profits, reduce positions, sell into strength etc in order to “ideally” be as close to 100% cash for Wednesday afternoon’s announcement.

This is trading not “fortune-telling”, and I don’t give a rat’s ass which way the market decides to go “post Bernanke” – only that I’m going along with it.

We’ve got fron Sunday night til Wednesday afternoon. Raise cash – don’t be a hero.

Trading Tuesday Night – What I'm Watching

I’m watching the Nikkei ( The Japanese Equities Index ) for “any” sign of reversal considering that it “has” pushed through the overhead downsloping trend line that has been so well-respected in the past.

In fact…..this is more like a “20 year” down trend so….you can understand my current skepticism.

https://forexkong.com/2013/05/25/nikkei-20-year-chart-rejection/

Considering the current “headwinds” I find it very hard to believe that “now is the time” for a massive breakout / reversal in an area of resistance / trend going back some 20  years.

Otherwise, Im looking to see the correlation and movements underway in the precious metals and USD, as well keeping my eye on those longer term U.S Treasury Bonds.

We’re pretty much at a point where a number of these longer term correlations need to either “stay the course” or “make their move” – with “tapering or no tapering” the primary driver.

With Japan pretty much in the driver’s seat “liquidity wise” a keen eye on the Nikkei and its inverse relationship with the Yen will provide the first signs of reversal in risk.

I’ve taken profits on all “short USD” pairs, but will likely set up orders “above or below” current action in several pairs and look to catch further movement with momentum. I’m also still holding a couple small trades ( in the weeds ) long JPY – but have little concern as these will only be added to / kept.

written by F Kong

Insanity Trade – Don't Try This At Home

As of late – I feel I’ve gotten a little soft.

Pulling back over the summer months ( knowing ahead of time it was gonna be rocky ) has me a tad complacent, and dare I say a touch out of character. Should impending war, global Central Bank intervention , looming collisions with massive asteroids , or nuclear disaster stand in the way of a seasoned forex trader? No chance.

It’s time to light this candle.

September is upon us and blog traffic has literally tripled in a matter of days. I’ve been over the “reader’s poll” ( and want to thank all of you who’ve contributed!) and understand that a large number of you really want to get down to some of the “real-time trades” and straight up entry/exit stufff – no bones about it.

I need to have a little fun once in a while too, as doing this for a living can really get to you at times. Daily walks on a Caribbean beach, cold beer, swimming with turtles/whale sharks, diving , salsa bars, bone fishing etc……these things can really wear on a guy!

I am placing an order “long EUR/AUD” at 1.43 – as well “short CAD/CHF at 90.00 and fully expect that if anyone else tries this……….you will be taken directly to the cleaners.

I implore you “not to try this”. And don’t even ask me  “how / why”.

Summers over. I’m done tapping the brakes.

Let’s get this show on the road.

Why Watch The Dow Jones? – I Don't

Think about it.

We’ve got issues facing the entire planet. War in Syria, the Fukushima spill in Japan, elections in Europe, and the never-ending “gong show” of blunders playing out in the U.S.

We’ve also got stock markets ( completely contained and unto themselves ) in emerging markets such as Brasil, Colombia, Indonesia,Europe, Canada and the list goes on.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is composed of a rinky dink “30 companies in the U.S”! – 30 companies listed in the most rigged / manipulated index on the planet!!  30 companies!  Seriously – Who gives a shit?!

Can you imagine anyone outside the U.S ( or more so anyone with any important global influence / significant contribution to their own local economy / position of strength ) during times of global “risk aversion” giving a rat’s ass about the plight of 30 piddly companies in a single (and completely rigged ) stock exchange in a single country so far in debt it goes broke ( and just raises it’s credit card limit ) every 6 months!?

Common!

Open you eyes. Pull up some new charts. Get your head out of the sand. Seriously.

It’s a “not knowing the forest from the trees” type thing.

An index composed of 30 American companies , and those companies likely being “the most influenced” by Fed intervention, and promoted in the media via 6 major companies OWNED BY THE SAME INVESTOR GROUP AS THE FED – is an index I can do without.

Ditch it.  Pronto.

Story by F Kong at Google +

Short And Sweet – Forex Profits Galore

I’m looking for a little feedback here today.

I’m hoping to see / hear from some of you / possibly frustrated Forex traders, who’ve been following closely this week.

I hope you’ve taken some time to follow along, and seriously consider some of the concepts/ideas thrown around here at the blog. Last nights “tweet” as to the weakness in Japan, as well all of yesterday’s conversation “should” have made for some pretty happy traders here this morning.

In particular a valued reader suggesting the information here was “useless banter” “should” be up 150 pips over night on a single trade suggestion alone.

This stuff doesn’t turn on a dime, as we’ve worked this trade since Tuesday – but the profits as of this morning “should” make a few days effort well worth it.

I plan to sit tight and let this trade develop further, as we are “now” hearing suggestion that “the Fed may not taper”.

Didn’t I say that like a couple of months ago?