psychology of trading Archives - Page 3 of 25

USD Topping Out? – Place Orders Underneath

Forex KongNovember 14, 2016 2 Comments

The U.S Dollar has now reached “another” serious area of resistance here around 100.00 / 99.85

usd_topping_out

Inversely gold and silver mining stocks ( and likely the entire metals complex ) look to be putting in a serious low here ( as suggested in my previous post ).

As I’ve suggested time and time again….the absolute best way to play these “potential turns” is to place your orders some 50 – 100 pips “below” current price action….or in the case of “getting long EUR/USD” some 50 – 100 pips “above”. This way…..you don’t get picked up if price moves against you ( nothing ventured nothing gained right? ) OR you do get picked up on momentum moving in your direction.

Another way to do this is to place your order “above or below” the previous days high/low ( as seen by the bottom or top of the candle of the previous day ) – keeping yourself out-of-the-way of intra day fluctuations, but still leaving you tonnes of room for profit – should price action move in your direction. The key is to get into the trade “on momentum” and not get caught in the daily volatility.

You can’t pick an exact price. You never can. No blog, no investment consultant, no snake oil salesman can call it that close – it’s impossible when you consider we are talking about moves in a currency as small as 1/100 of a cent!

As well…..if you are looking for further confirmation / theory that perhaps things are ready to turn lower….take a look at Apple ( AAPL )

If the entire planet is so “hell-bent on buying U.S Equities” – How come industry leaders like Apple look like shit?

Failed Cycles Abound – Gold and Euro Win

Forex KongNovember 3, 2016 Got something to say?

This market has now taken out some pretty serious support, but now is essentially “too over sold to short”.

With the election looming – it would not be advised to make any large scale trades/investments or decisions as……no one wins come November 8th.

Gold miners bought weeks ago looking great as “king dollar” takes the expected pounding. No rate hike and two nut bars looking to take over the country. How could you possibly consider a “bullish” angle – short of a “pop” and then “ominous drop”?

I’m adding short USD and holding my Gold…..now eyeing “short Canadian housing” as the next big win. Currently researching the best way to hit it.

EUR/USD – USD And Gold – Alien Knowledge

Forex KongOctober 20, 2016 3 Comments

A simple correlation – the price of commodities and the U.S Dollar.

Gold being priced in USD obviously.

As the “value” of The U.S dollar rises – Gold price goes down. When the value of USD falls….one would expect the inverse in gold. Gold moves higher as USD falls. All good?

So you should find it interesting then, that over the past few days ( since giving the green light to buy gold ) The U.S Dollar has remained strong. Suggesting to myself at least…..that “even with a relatively strong dollar” the price of gold and silver related stocks have not only remained buoyant, but have made some pretty sold gains over the past few days.

I bought IMG at 4.68 a couple days ago – Now sitting at 5.29 – All the while USD has continued to move higher.

So what gives Kong? How can the value of the U.S Dollar keep rising AS WELL as Gold and related names?

Answer: An intermediate bottom in Gold.

I’m not talking about a nice little dip to buy, or a quick little stock tip to make you a couple extra bucks for beer….I’m talking about a large scale “fundamental shift in money flow” where the big boys are already well in position. Fully prepared for the U.S Dollar to fall – just that couple of steps ahead of you as…….you still see relative strength in USD even while the big money keeps scooping up Gold.

These large-scale “intermediate turns” don’t play out in a single day.

This will be short-lived, and here is why:

The Euro only further confirms the move currently in play as……it’s now very VERY close to bottoming as well.

Currencies don’t lie. You can’t have EUR and USD going up at the same time!

eur_bottoming_at_1-09

So the trade at hand is as follows. Long Gold / Silver and the miners NOW…….and short USD ( long EUR ) here in coming days…once this turn shows itself to the masses.

These “big turns” take weeks and even months for the big boys to build positions, so you don’t always see typical correlations playing out “minute to minute”. It’s my firm belief that the entire year of 2016 has essentially had the big money distributing stock to retail investors….while they quietly and patiently unload USD and scoop up Gold.

Make no mistake. It’s “Dollar Short Time” again here soon, with large gains planned in EUR longs, and a solid investment in Gold.

You think it’s backwards. You don’t think it makes sense but…….haven’t you been reading / lurking here long enough to know better by now? Once you throw currencies into your watch lists, and basket of tools to draw from…you can see things much clearer.

Big moves coming post election.

Why Are Markets Trading Sideways?

Forex KongSeptember 29, 2016 Got something to say?

In a general sense……you can’t do shit when markets continue to trade sideways.

It’s very difficult for new traders as……you still feel that you “must keep trading” in order to keep money coming in. Trades go nowhere, you get frustrated…..then you make mistakes. Costly mistakes.

Taking a quick look at the Dow ( going back a few months ) we can see at least the past 8 weeks as virtually “unchanged”. Marketing stuck in the mud a full 8 weeks now.

dow_trading_sideways_for_months

You can’t “really” trade this, as this small amount of movement leaves little room for profit – and timing entries becomes paramount. You need to recognize it for what it is….and accept it. Then your trades / trading will improve.

I don’t really expect this to change until AFTER the U.S Election / Gong Show finally winds up in November, and will be planning trades accordingly. Smaller orders…lower expectation. More planning for the larger moves expected post elections.

It is what it is…..you’ve just got to learn to recognize it sooner.

Tomorrow’s Trade – BOJ And Fed On Deck

Forex KongSeptember 20, 2016 13 Comments

Blah, blah blah……as once again The U.S Fed and Bank Of Japan keep markets on their toes.

Tomorrow we “should” hear from both, which sets up a pretty tricky scenario if you are thinking about placing any trades prior to the announcements. That’s not how I roll, although…….I am still holding every single trade entered like – 10 days ago.

Conviction is great, as I am 100% certain that The U.S Fed will not be raising interest rates this close to the election but we can never EVER count on The Bank Of Japan to do what we expect. In fact…there have been several times in the past where The BOJ has surprised markets – big time.

You are aware that the BOJ and The U.S Fed have been working together on this “propped up market” for years now right? Taking turns cranking up the printing presses as to keep these fake dollars / yen rolling into markets?

BOJ takes the next kick at the can

This coordinated effort is widely known….yet poorly understood.

It would not shock me in the slightest to hear Japan “beefing up” its easing and money printing efforts in order to keep the balls in the air a while longer as…..Japan is deep DEEP in The Fed’s pocket.

If Japan pulls the trigger ( allowing The U.S off the hook ) expect markets to rally…..otherwise…we continue flat across the top. Flat across the top until the elections are out of the way…then down.

Further currency trading prior to tomorrow’s announcements is plain stupid.

Sit tight….wait and see what shakes out.

EUR And USD – How To Trade Them

Forex KongSeptember 7, 2016 2 Comments

It´s simple. Very simple.

The EUR and The U.S Dollar are simply the two most widely held currencies on the planet. This being said….you can usually generalize that weakness in one suggests strength in the other ¨regardless¨ of the news. Seriously…….all news aside you can generally just look at EUR and USD as ïnterchangeable¨ – trading nearly 100% correlated. Tit for tat.

So……..with further consideration that USD has now reached a major inflection point ( and is headed decidedly lower ) we can also assume that EUR is set to bottom. Fair assumption?

Now you start looking at EUR pairs specifically and ask yourself……which currencies will I see the largest moves in against EUR?? Well…….we can also assume that commodity related currencies take a hit when risk appetite subsides right? Currencies like AUD and NZD ( Australian and New Zealand ) generally fall when risk appetite wains so……long EUR and short AUD?

EUR_and_AUD_When_Risk_Comes_Off

I’m watching exotic pairs such as EUR/AUD ( which also falls into my ¨faceripper¨ category, being that this thing is extremely volatile, and ready to blow up in your face at any moment ). You can’t trade this thing…..but you can sit on the sidelines and observe.

I´m watching this pair as of today…..not trading it – YET!

Facerippers are nuts. These currency pairs will clean out your account without a moments notice so please – do not try this at home! Watch this pair……watch for the coorelation to ¨risk on vs risk off¨.

USD Tanks – The Decisive Break Lower Arrives

Forex KongSeptember 6, 2016 4 Comments

There’s little more to be said here this morning – as The U.S Dollar plummets nearly a full 1%, down a full 100 points from 96.00.

Absolute Dollar devastation as both GBP as well EUR make 100 point gains, USD/JPY hit’s resistance and dumps….and our little gaggle of gold and silver miners now up 7-9% since entry.

I’m obviously short as “sh&%t”…and very well positioned ahead of the move. So what could you have done better perhaps?

You “could” have plotted areas of support and resistance on your charts “long before this move was made”, and have been fully prepared with your orders

You “could” have created 3 small orders and “legged in” over the previous 3-5 days, ensuring and average price and not betting the farm on a single entry.
You “could” have shut of your T.V, eliminated the noise, and gotten back to your charting…where you would have clearly seen the set up coming.

You “could” have opened your mind to the “other side of the trade” ( vs the general main stream media ) and taken advantage of some pretty early indications ( here at the blog ) that things where about to turn.

Forex_Kong_Ashamed

There it is…..likely the best possible entry / trade tip / suggestion that you’ve seen laid out for you over the last several days…no stress….no pressure. No chasing markets in panic…no text marathon’s with your broker…just proper planning and execution. A very well placed trade, looking to become a very VERY profitable trade.

So what are you gonna do now? Seriously………..what are you gonna do now?

Currency Markets Move – Just Slower Than U Think

Forex KongSeptember 2, 2016 8 Comments

As I’m sure you’ve been following the “bold call” earlier this week..our dear friend U.S Dollar “has indeed reached the 96.00 level”, and as suggested – has clearly been rejected.

On has to appreciate not only the timing and levels, but the “patience required” in planning your trades, then executing properly.

This trade “short USD” was outlined back on Monday.

The_Next_U.S_Dollar_short

This is the key difference in “planning a trade” as opposed to waking up early one morning, and “impulsively taking a trade” cuz of something you’ve heard / seen on the T.V. This generally has you “chasing markets” and usually ends in a loss.

Broadstroke……this has USD headed lower as expected. and will also likely mark a “daily cycle low” for both Gold and Silver ( have you bought your few small mining companies yet? ) providing these with several days upside to follow.

Perhaps consider a shot at EXK and / or GPL for some silver plays ( fun ones…….very cheap ).

Have at it people. If this hasn’t put you in a decent spot to make a buck er two shit……..what else do you need?

Oooh! The Anticipation – Kong Buys IMG

Forex KongAugust 30, 2016 1 Comment

You can play “short USD” in any number of ways….and when considering “diversification” ( as any knowledgeable trader / investor should! ) why not throw a couple of bux towards those good ol gold and silver mining stocks.

As a “token” of my current plans moving forward “as planned”….I am placing the first of many orders “long gold and silver” ( inverse to short U.S Dollar ) here today.

Long IMG at 5.00 Even.

Gold_and_Silver_Long_Entry

The currency side of things plays out pretty simply.

USD goes down and the largest gains are seen in pairs such as short USD/JPY and long GBP/USD, EUR/USD.

When risk comes off “in general” ( which will also happen for a time here ) even bigger gains are found in getting long JPY against AUD, NZD and CAD.

I expect U.S Equity markets to fall “along side” USD as well so – there’s a head scratcher for ya! Kong ! I thought that if U.S Equities get “sold” then money should just pour back into the U.S Dollar no???

No.

The big boys are already out of their “long dollar trades” and it will be JPY that rises as U.S Equity markets sell off.

JPY is the funding currency for this gong show, and you will see it hit the stratosphere when equities are sold.

The U.S Dollar – Here’s What Happens Next

Forex KongAugust 29, 2016 14 Comments

You know it’s funny…..human beings have become so lazy these days…so passive so….sedentary – they really just want to be told whats what. What’s going to happen. What to think. What to do.

Just lay it out for me in a couple of bold headlines and perhaps a small snippet of information please ( as anything more would simply be “just too much”. ) No need to get into any “great detail” – just tell me what to do so I cam make lots of money, and most importantly…think about very little.

Don’t raise any controversy, don’t rock the boat…don’t make me “question anything”. I only want sound, actionable information….and it MUST make me money while I do “as close to nothing” as humanly possible.

This is what is going to happen to the U.S Dollar, and this is what I am doing about it.

The_Next_U.S_Dollar_short

So there it is.

About as straight up / straight forward as it gets these days….right down to the levels, and the days. Is This gonna work for you, or would you also prefer that I push the buy and sell buttons for you too?

The last little “spike” in USD offers is yet another fantastic opportunity to “sell the rips” not “buy the dips” as we are in a very solid and confirmed daily downtrend.

USD Trend is down – the trade is short. This is a rip t be sold.

Do it. Make cash.