trade strategies

Trade Like The Big Boys – Here's How

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Horrible data out of Japan last night has indeed “capped” the recent move higher, but more importantly has “put a stop to further easing” til at least October, if not til early 2015!

The weakened Yen has pushed inflation higher as import costs on food and energy continue to rise. This is absolutely fantastic news for us , as it removes “yet another Central Bank” ( if indeed the Fed has stepped back at all – which I really don’t believe they have ) and opens the window for some  “serious” medium term planning.

No BOJ printing til maybe even 2015? Fed looking to continue tapering? ECB more or less caught like a deer in the headlights? Hello! Contraction time is coming!

Trade wise, this could be a real break as we all know what it feels like “week after week” with markets hanging on every single word from Central Banks. More easing ? Less easing? Ping pong, ping-pong. The message is starting to come clear that the “easy money” is most certainly going to slow.

Strength in JPY has slowing been building since the beginning of the year, as the big boys quietly build for the entire first five months of 2014. Wow.

Yen_2014_Forex_Kong

Yen_2014_Forex_Kong

The market has been an absolute grind the first half of 2014 – and for very good reason. When major shifts in monetary policy loom in the “not so distant future” major market players start making “major market moves”. This takes time. A lot of time. So much time that you’d have to imagine a plan being put in place back in January and “only now” getting closer to a time to see it realized.

Has the “extended down period” in Gold been any different? Absolutely not. Big boys getting into position for the turn. Takes months. Many months, as they can’t move price “to fast” in that they essentially move prices “against themselves” with plans to buy in such quantity that when the time “finally comes” they are “so loaded” it rains money for the following year. This is how it’s done.

When I say patience is required. I don’t mean sitting on your ass waiting for something to happen. I mean working your ass off getting into position “before” something happens.

This is how it’s done. Come check us out at the Members Site…you might actually learn something.  www.forexkong.net

Daily Forex Strategy – May 23, 2014

Forex Kong 4 Comments

” A snippet from the Members Site”.

We’ve stayed away from making any “big decisions” with regards to the U.S Dollar and for very good reason. Getting short the commodity currencies vs USD has been fine ( as these currencies have been falling against most ) but with respect to the EU related currencies – no trade has been “the best trade” over the past few days, as USD continues to “grind away” with little discernible direction.

As of tonight / this morning USD will have worked its way up to the 200 Day Moving Average ( on a daily time frame ) and looks poised to finally show us its “cruel intentions”.

The Japanese Yen is also “flirting” with its 200 Day as U.S equities continue to stretch / challenge the “near term highs” seen only days ago.

Talk about an inflection point.

As much as I understand that so many of you have “grown a custom” to seeing the various scenarios “outlined” in charts and “speculative commentary” across the various financial blogs – hunches are hunches and “speculation” has never really done much for my trading.

At this point it seems fairly obvious to me that the Japanese Yen has indeed fueled the majority of this “last leg up in risk” and NOT AS MUCH USD in that….we know the money printing in the U.S has provided dollars for a mirad of reasons / uses to support the current ponzi scheme – but no one can say for certain “where” the money has gone or “how” its been utilized by the Fed and major players.

As “ass backwards” as it may sound, it makes some sense to me that we see USD fall “along side” U.S Equities for the next leg down, as money flows back into JPY FIRST.

USD to fall, as commodity currencies fall “harder” with JPY the primary beneficary and the EU currencies also “rising” as risk comes off is scenario #1.  Nuts eh?

On the completely other end of the spectrum, can one imagine a scenario here where “risk on prevails” and we see USD rise along with Equities, as JPY gets pounded again with the EU related currencies dropping like stones? It seem’s far less likely to me but again…..you can see why “speculation” generally doesn’t do much for my trading.

Bottom line is – you can “think” about these things but “trading off them” is a fools game, and the “heart and soul” of the many bloggers and analysts out there searching for eyeballs in a sea of speculation. I continue to trade “what’s in front of me” and move in one direction “with conviction” until proven otherwise, with the worst case scenario being “I’m totally wrong” and just switch directions a trade later. No foul. No loss. Allowing markets to “do what they will do” then quietly following along.

This is no time for speculation. This is no time for “big bets”. All will be revealed in very short order, so we learn to exercise patience and continue to trade with caution. All the “arrows in the world” won’t change which direction things move tomorrow, as it’s pointless to even consider these “projections” as having any edge in todays “more than manipulated markets”.

Armchair analysts and financial bloggers can kindly take their “bags full of arrows” and shove them where the sun……( you know what  mean ) as it “all amounts to nothing” if you’re not trading it properly.

So today we wait.

Speculation is speculation. Trading is trading.

You want to be a speculator or a trader?

I’ve never really heard of anyone “making any money” contemplating the future, where as “trading the present” has worked out pretty well thus far.

More at www.forexkong.net

Remember To Laugh – It's Only A Trade

Forex Kong Got something to say?

I catch myself once in a while too so….you are not alone.

Considering that 95% of traders fail, its difficult at times to keep a positive attitude. I understand that better than anyone.

Having already gone through the “trials and tribulations” of learning how this all fits together, I know “full well” that it’s hard….not just hard, but damn near impossible when you are just starting out.

Don’t lose sight of yourself as….it’s only a trade. You have to remember to laugh.

I remember a time back when I was trading options, struggling with a relationship with a “wicked and evil girl” and incarcerated in Colombia!

Days later I came home to a “world full of hurt” as markets tanked, my stitches didn’t take, and my heart lay smashed on the cold tile floor. I’d lost more than I care to remember, but still managed to pull myself together and live to to trade another day.

How?

I laughed ( I cried too ).

I learned.

Then I laughed a little more.

You can’t let this get the best of you, and you can’t lose sight of the fact that it’s only a trade. You’ve really no control over it no matter what happens so….all you can really do is protect yourself, and do “everything else you can” to  remain positive. Laugh once in a while! Go see a movie! Go pet a dog!

There are a million and one reasons to laugh these days as the world “outside of trading” is more comical than ever! Trading is trading but it’s certainly not “everything”.

Remember to laugh, and do what you can to put this all in perspective. It’s only a trade. You “should” live so….you might as well have a smile on your face.

P.S – I just burnt the shit out of a roast in the oven while writing this so……..what do you think I’m gonna do about it??

I’m laughing my ass off!

Pushing people to absolute extremes here, markets continue to pull you apart. Buyers are losers, sellers are losers, and the entire thing feels like it’s just one big joke!

Laugh about it people! Your’e gonne feel alot better!

Check us out in “real time” over at the Members site: www.forexkong.net . Lots of laughter going on over there.

 

 

 

Gold, Bonds, Stocks – Everything Gets Pounded

Forex Kong Got something to say?

For most – this market makes absolutely no sense.

For forex traders we’ve been given a “tiny little gift” here as of yesterday with The Australian Dollar ( AUD ) finally taking out the last of the short-term bulls, rolling over “hard” – and rewarding our patience and fundamental approach.

This before “global appetite for risk” takes a total nose dive, all the while SP 500 “still” clinging to the highs. I’m up 652 pips in just the last few days alone…and the SP500 hasn’t even budged……..yet.

Gold and U.S Treasuries next to “take it on the chin” in an environment where many must be asking “how can all these things move lower at once”?? Where “is” the safety play if gold, bonds, stocks and “everything” head for the basement?

Cash. That’s where.

The “endless slosh” of Japanese Yen as well American Dollars used to “buy all this crap” is now finding its way “back into bank accounts” as safety is sought.

If you’ve no interest / knowledge of foreign exchange then I can fully understand the confusion but….consider something so basic, so rudimentary, so straight forward as this:

Stocks are purchased with cash, gold is purchased with cash, bonds are purchased with cash!

It’s the “cash” that dictates the value of these assets! Not the other way around!

When I have someone ask me “Kong – gold is going lower, what does that mean for the U.S Dollar?” or “Are bonds “sniffing out” a low in USD?

It’s the other way around!

As the largest, most liquid, most widely traded market on the planet it’s the “currency market” that dictates movement in all others “below” it, so when you see “risk related currencies” being sold, and “safe haven currencies” being bought – there it is.

It’s the largest piece of the puzzle and for the most part – the least understood.

You’ve got a fantastic opportunity here – to add something new to your toolbox. Watch how this unfolds and look to consider currency movement as a “major leading indicator” ( if not “the” leading indicator ) when trading in other markets / assets.

We’re in a wonderful position here with active trades well in profit before the fireworks really even get started. I invite “any and all” to have a poke around the Members Site and consider adding “forex” to the list of things you follow / track on a day to day basis.

 

Japan Is Broken – Soon You Will Be Too

Forex Kong 16 Comments

We’ve been waiting for this for a considerable amount of time, and our patience will now be rewarded.

The Japanese Stock Market Index “The Nikkei” has now breached our “waterfall zone” dropping an additional -200 points here overnight in a surprising ( only in that it’s happened on Sunday ) move lower, this early in the week.

The flow of news headlines won’t make a single difference in the world ( depending on what they look to as the cause ) in that, this has been slowly developing over such an extended period…it was only a matter of time before she cracked.

It takes the big players “weeks and months” to move such large amounts of money “in or out”  of position, and the past few weeks have had “distribution” written all over them. Distribution is a market dynamic where over time, large players continue to “quietly sell” to retail as they prepare to “hit the exits” with profits in hand. You certainly don’t want to be the last one holding the bag looking to “buy the dip” once the big boys make the move.

You doubt me? Consider the entire past 5 months as purely “distribution” and now watch how quickly these “gains” are wiped from your portfolio. Weeks and even months of trading “evaporate” in a matter of days.

You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink well…..again I am absolutely stunned that so-called “traders” continue to push the “green button” in the face of something so incredibly obvious.

I guess you need to lose 30-40% of your gains to finally get it.

Best of luck with everything “bullish” here this week and in the months to come. Gorillas are already nearly 100% in position and already in profit pretty much across the board – still just waiting on the final nail ( USD ) to make up its freakin mind so we can jump on that train too.

Long JPY is the way to go, with the commods continued weakness right on cue. SPY and QQQ shorts from “days” ago still performing well and a miriad of trades lining up in USD. More at the members site: www.forexkong.net

 

Intraday Charts – Like Kids With Crayons

Forex Kong Got something to say?

You can’t get down on yourself during times like these.

You’ve studied every “technical analysis” known to man, may it be “cycle theory” or “elliot wave” or “fib trading” whatever……yet things still aren’t lining up. You still can’t seem to “time this” and generate winning trades on a consistent basis well…….

You can’t get down on yourself during times like these.

Intraday charts currently look like they’re being created by a group of small children with a couple of boxes of crayons! A real mess to say the least, and hardly what I’d call “works of art”.

As traders you’ve got to learn to recognize when market “just aren’t behaving” in a rational manner, and adjust your trading accordingly. You can’t get down on yourself and throw into question everything you’ve work so hard to learn as..at times – It’s not you!

The market is at an inflection point. Period.

You need to step back. Keep yourself protected and learn from this….as you’ll be more than prepared for the next time.

Don’t let this thing get the best of you.

It’s important to recognize these are “unprecedented times”! Markets are nuts for a reason because for the most part……no one has a freakin clue what’s coming next. The entire thing “hangs in the balance” of Central Bank intervention and the realities of slowing global growth.

Not exactly an “ideal environment” for the new trader, in fact it’s a terrible environment for any trader! If you can’t step back and see the larger picture….then the “smaller pictures” will continue to confound. This is not a time to be “practicing”. This is not a time to be “taking chances”.

When I go fishing, I generally get up pretty early, but I don’t even bother loading the truck if it’s pissing down rain right? You don’t go “scuba diving” during a hurricane do you?

This is no different.  Forest from the trees type stuff – you know.

Sunday’s weekly report on tap this weekend, as well the daily strategies, trading table and intraday commentary and trading full steam ahead. Check us out in the members area and take a break over the weekend. Next week promises to be a whopper.

U.S Bonds – Fed Buying From Belgium

Forex Kong 7 Comments

I’ve had several people ask my views / opinions on the recent “up moves” in U.S Treasuries considering the fact that the Fed “suggests” its tapering asset purchases by an additional 10 billion dollars month over month.

So how on Earth do bond prices just keep going higher? Who on Earth would be buying these worthless / fraudulent pieces of toilet paper if not the Fed?

Answer: It is the Fed, only they are doing it via surrogate buyers in Belgium.

Same bullshit – even more deceptive.

I’ll let our good friend Dr. Paul Roberts do what he does best and explain to you “exactly” how this is taking place, as no one could possibly explain it better.

You won’t believe what you’re reading, when you get your head wrapped around “just how desperate” and “just how deceptive” the U.S Federal Reserve is.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/05/12/fed-great-deceiver-paul-craig-roberts/

YOU MUST READ THIS ARTICLE

 

 

The Canadian Dollar – Trouble Ahead

Forex Kong 2 Comments

I hate to say it, but the Canadian Dollar is heading for some “rough times” in coming months.

Considered a “risk related currency” along side both the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar ( as these countries economies are primarily based on the export of raw materials / natural resources ) a slowing China, slowing global growth, and a “floundering United States” won’t do much to help Canada and its “loonie” stay aloft.

Awful employment data last week certainly didn’t help either, but that’s not nearly as large a driving factor as slowing global growth. These countries depend on “selling what they’ve got” to keep people working and to keep the economy strong, so by simple way of “supply and demand” these economies suffer when global growth slows.

Canadian_Dollar_Forex_Kong_May_14

Canadian_Dollar_Forex_Kong_May_14

And it is slowing. Not matter what you read or see on your television.

None of this turns on a dime obviously, so for the most part you’ll only really “hear of it” long after it’s well under way ( as it’s happening at this very moment ) but the reforms in China will continue to creep into the “inner workings” of our global economy, while the U.S as well Europe continue to struggle – just to keep their heads above water.

Short “Canada” starting to make sense, as I’m already long USD/CAD as well short CAD/JPY.

Check out the Members Area and get real-time trades, daily commentary on gold, stocks, forex and more…

 

Your Vice Presidents Son – Now Ukraine Bigshot

Forex Kong 9 Comments

I had to pass this along, in case any of you still have any questions surrounding The United States interests in Ukraine.

Vice President of The United States Joe Biden’s son has just been appointed as a “new director” on the board of directors of Ukraine’s largest private gas producer Burisma Holdings.

Having served as a Senior Vice President at MBNA bank, former U.S. President Bill Clinton appointed him an Executive Director of E-Commerce Policy Coordination and under Secretary of Commerce William Daley. Mr. Biden served as Honorary Co-Chair of the 2008 Obama-Biden Inaugural Committee.

Now Biden’s son is on the board of directors of Ukraine’s largest gas company????

Common on people! This is public knowledge! ( Thanks to Zerohedge for the tip-off ).

The full article is here at their own corporate website. I’m off to the bathroom now to vomit.

http://burisma.com/hunter-biden-joins-the-team-of-burisma-holdings/

 

 

2 Steps Forward – Then 2 More

Forex Kong Got something to say?

The long USD trades ( in particular vs the EU type currencies ) is absolutely killing it, and for the most part – hasn’t really even started yet.

With “The Nikkei” most recently “serving as my guide” we’ll see reversal here today and the “party can get started” with those Yen related pairs as well.

As I’d mentioned some time ago…I’ve long and since stopped worrying about the silly SP 500, as it’s movement has had “very little to no effect” on currency positioning and bigger picture analysis.

It’s a game. And it’s a game that most are losing.

If I could chose to be one thing right now “other than a gorilla” I’d take bear over bull in a heartbeat, and really can’t wrap my head around the logic buying into this but…..

I guess that’s what retail investors are for.

Buying at tops and selling at bottoms.

I’ve got a bit of swamp land in Southern Yucatan here in Mexico you might want to take a look at as well. The markets hot – it won’t be available for long.

Happily positioned “short risk” and only looking to add on any, ANY short term strength.