trade strategy

Biotech Already Showed You – GDP Dismal

Forex Kong 4 Comments

The US Dollar has FINALLY broken below its previous daily cycle low to confirm the beginning of the long await “intermediate decline”.

A few days bounce may be in the cards, but what is most important to understand is that the cycle of higher highs and high lowers has finally come to an end –  with a “lower low” now in place.

Larger implications?

I assume gold, silver and the related mining companies are about to see  strong move upward, and it will be interesting to see if the price of oil related names move higher – in the face of a weaker U.S Dollar.

The ol adage to “sell in May and go away” looks to be taking hold this year, so I would caution you sleepy , passive , complacent traders and investors to consider “once again” to bank those profits here, as this extended topping process finally comes home to roost.

Short USD trades have performed wonderfully, and we’ve got the JPY related pairs on deck next.

CNBC has now moved to a shitty little office in San Francisco, because t’s all they can afford. Look for the network / channel to likely disappear from the airwaves late this year.

Yesterday’s “trade of the day” posted on Twitter was a smashing success, as will be today’s and the next days and the next….

The Fed has your back here this afternoon. U.S GDP craters lower “again” and the world is a happy shiny place “financially speaking”. Lol.

Keep drinkin the watered down, luke warm kool-aid here today. Ahh screw it….just go back to bed.

IBB_Forex_Kong

IBB_Forex_Kong

 

 

 

 

Getting Ready – Sell AUD/JPY at 95.50

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Not today folks ( but you can see that risk is indeed being sold already).

I am planning for a fat trade Short AUD/JPY up around 95.50 over the next day er two.

What do you know? Apple earnings finally out-of-the-way, and could it be…..no..no seriously?

Market may “actually start to look interesting here again soon”!

I will be posting more short-term trades here in coming days and weeks, as I see the potential developing for some movement – Finally!

Teeter Totter….stocks can fall like water.

 

 

 

 

USD Shorts – Taking Profits Then Reloading

Forex Kong 4 Comments

As per last week’s weekly report to members.

In the current environment these trades playing out over the past 7 – 10 days equate to “monsters” if you ask me.

Long GBP/USD back on like April 17 around 148.50 for 300 pips.

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

EUR/USD for a 100 pips

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

Markets are set to roll over here, so USD could go either way short term…a continued fall or small bounce before “continued fall lower”.

Biotech leading the charge – getting hammered today…

I’ll bank the cash….sit tight a day er two and reload across the board for continued and “larger gains” short USD and short RISK in general.

 

 

Picking Coca In Peru – Beats Following Markets

Forex Kong 1 Comment

The hard cold truth.

There is very little “if any” money to be made on the long side. Period.

If you love “anguish and grief” then great. You can do your best to push though this “as a bull” but……you will likely wake up “morning after morning – for weeks on end” hoping to see a few extra pennies added to your account, only to find more shitty ads on CNBC, an empty sugar bowl, rats in your attic and a dull pain behind your eyes.

With a general view that we ultimately move “significantly lower”….this thing is doing “this” at best:

SPX_APRIL_23_Forex_Kong

SPX_APRIL_23_Forex_Kong

Who could be bothered?

Short of looking for some “big red candles” to follow – I could just as well have a completely  “alternate identity” picking coca leaves in the mountains of Peru as opposed to contemplating this.

Imagine it going sideways for “the next 4 months” and I think you get the picture.

Big red candles or bust folks…otherwise….you’re just wasting your time.

 

I AM STILL EXTREMELY SHORT USD.

 

Up Then Down – Forex Markets Wobble

Forex Kong 1 Comment

It’s my feeling that this continued sideways action is likely to persist into early May – giving us little “tradeable action” in any kind of medium term sense.

The following charts really don’t suggest any advantage “bullish or bearish” as these longer term “triangle patterns” continue to plod along to the ultimate point of confluence – when a solid direction will ultimately be seen.

It’s a real drag. It can’t be helped, but what is important is being able to identify it for what it is….and trading ( or not trading ) accordingly. I for one see no real advantage putting money at risk here…..until of course we see something solid unfold.

How long can this go on?

It can “and will” continue as long as the big boys continue to plan and plot positions, dragging in as much retail money as they possibly can before pulling the pin.

I’ve essentially given up trying to convince anyone that the best possible thing to do at this junction is to bank your profits, call it a “good run” and politely move to the sidelines – while the final stages of this “massive distribution at the top” plays out as….human beings will be human beings.

Greed generally being the driving force. I’ve learned enough over the years to appreciate that, there is very little “more” one can expect to milk from this thing on the long side of risk, and that it makes the most sense to just get yourself prepared and positioned for the next move lower so……..if you want to push it – feel free but so so with caution.

USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

We can see that most anything “USD related” continues to grind sideways until this triangle finally resolves itself. Resolving lower in my view so……I don’t see any “edge” jumping into larger positions short of just letting it play out.

EUR/USD – nothing to really offer.

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

Looking at a weekly chart I’d be more inclined to watch GBP for a better risk vs reward.

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

With consideration for JPY related pairs…they look pretty ripe for short entries anywhere in here with AUD/JPY suggesting that “risk” could just as well turn lower any day.

AUD_JPY_April_20_Forex_Kong

AUD_JPY_April_20_Forex_Kong

I’m looking for another decent down day in risk, and an opportunity to get short the JPY related pairs here very soon, while waiting on USD realted pairs to finally show their hand.

I don’t have any interest in jumping into anything short of seeing something “solid” develop as far as trend goes.

This is not a trending environment regardless of the usual day to day bullshit media suggesting things are “always going higher”.

The big up day in DOW today was widely promoted as “a huge upswing in stocks” while most people have already forgotten Friday’s wipeout. Net net….its – 78 in my books over the past 2 days right?

Sheep will be sheep.

Small orders if tading at all. Waiting for a shoe to drop.

 

 

 

 

Dow Futures Down -225 – China Crashing

Forex Kong 5 Comments

Chinese stock futures are now down almost 7% – the 2nd biggest drop in 7 years.

Down futures down -225 Completely erasing April before you even get out of bed, and get a chance to have a look.

You see what I’m saying here? This thing will not give you “half a chance” to get out with your skin intact if you don’t have the foresight to consider  “ringing the bell” and “taking some off the table” BEFORE IT HAPPENS.

You “powerbulls” can take one on the chin this morning – and you deserve it.

I don’t have alot to say these days, as you know where I stand on the global economy in general, and this puff ball/hot air balloon you call a market.

Looks like you’ve ignored the last two posts…..and the “50 points lower” is “- 250 points lower” before the days has even begun.

Good luck with that, I’m off shopping for a new boat.

Long Trades Sink – Kong Waits On Private Island

Forex Kong 1 Comment

If you’ve heard me say it once – I’ve said it a million times. A strong U.S Dollar will not be tolerated, as it represents a “red-hot poker to the eye” of both the corporate American “and” The U.S Fed.

You can fire up with all the fancy economic bullshit you can rustle from the countless “pro risk/pro USD/pro economic recovery loser blogs” out there ( and I hope you do ) and it won’t make a stitch of difference.

This thing will be cut off at the knees as U.S earnings plummet to the depth of an ocean.

Lets just call it the “Sea of Recession”.

You’ve heard of it but have no f*^*king clue where it is…..perhaps try looking in your backyard.

Short USD trades are once again “up and running” as we prepare to snap up all those long trades – soon going overboard.

I’d take a look at U.S Equities as well and consider that when BOTH the U.S Dollar AND Stocks start dropping like a rock….the big boys will have already taken the life rafts to shore.

I’ll already be on my private island – scanning my beaches for washed up traders and radio shack suits.

Do you think New Yorker’s can even swim?

I doubt it.

Forex Kong Goes Dark – Markets Go Nowhere

Forex Kong 3 Comments

Recent travels have taken me to the far reaches of the planet…..far far away from these pesky markets, deep into the darkest flora and fauna this world has to offer.

I am literally in the middle of nowhere…..and loving every minute of it, short of the “pancake sized” blisters on the back of my heels from having to actually wear shoes / boots. It’s slowed me down a touch….but I’m on the mend now.

No Internet. No Television and barely a scrape of food for miles, let alone a crisp cold beer. I freeze my ass off at night and am now as white as a ghost, blending in the best I can with “wonderful savages” who inhabit this land.

I speak nothing of markets as I am now deeply entrenched in far more “pressing matters” the likes of which I’m not at liberty to discuss – at least for today that is. ut I can tell you this: Something big is about to happen.

Cryptic as it may be, there is no question in my mind that “change is in the air” and considering how stagnant things have been – it’s about freakin time.

I will be back on top of markets as I am now this “mountain we call life” from this afternoon on.

I appreciate your patience but hey……did you really even miss me?

Draghi On Monday – Devil In The Details

Forex Kong 17 Comments

There is a very important detail of Draghi’s proposed “ECB QE Program” that looks to have escaped the larger headline news  (suggesting that Draghi’s program will provide the next boost for markets and ultimately save The E.U Zone from disaster ).

Draghi suggested last week that The ECB “will not be buying securities if” their yields are below the ECB’s deposit rate of minus 0.2 percent.

Well…….with Eighty-four of the 346 securities in the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index with rates below zero ( including all German bonds due in six years or less ) it remains to be seen just “what will be bought” and in what kind of amount.

We’ve all seen Draghi “talk the talk” so many times in the past, so again the question comes to mind if “this time”he can “or will” walk the walk.

Imagine the set up for markets so widely expecting the ECB QE Program to “somehow” put a shelf under the economic destruction currently sweeping Europe…only to realize that once again Draghi pulls the carpet out from under, offering far less than what was originally proposed.

It would not surprise me in the least to see the final bottom to be put in on The EURO triggered by a less than expected result from The ECB ‘s “supposed” QE Bazooka.

We’ll find out here on Monday / Tuesday as the program is expected to begin.

U.S Dollar Strength – A Nightmare For U.S Businesses

Forex Kong 15 Comments

I’m pleased to see that the mainstream media is finally catching up – with these headlines “now” spattered across the news at Google. Are you finally coming to understand the effects of a strong U.S Dollar? Or are you just thrilled that you can power your generator an extra day or two on the cheap?

Strong_USD_Feb_News_Forex_Kong

Strong_USD_Feb_News_Forex_Kong

As we’ve discussed here earlier – a stronger U.S Dollar is The Fed’s worst nightmare ( as debts payable in USD skyrocket out of control ) and is killing U.S Exports.

The “less than expected GDP” print here this morning isn’t even the half of it, as these numbers are goosed along with “all” U.S Data in a sad attempt to mask what’s really going on. The near term “sideways trading” in USD has done little to excite traders, as with the current gong show playing in The E.U / Greece.

USD has “appeared” to be the “best of the worst” with all paper currencies essentially losing value at breakneck speed.

With commodities stretched about as low as one can imagine, and USD now stretched about as far as “America can bear” it’s really only a matter of time ( a short time ) before the elastic band snaps back in “epic fashion”.

You won’t get out in time. You’ll hang on until you are swimming in a sea of red, looking for a lifeline unless you keep your eyes peeled and have the courage to “sell” when everyone else on the planet is buying.