With Japan now out of the way….we can clearly see that markets don’t dig it. The Yen is powering higher which is the absolute last thing Japan would like to see.
A strong Yen is terrible for Japan ( as a strong currency is for any nation these days ) and suggests that money is actually flowing “out” of markets – back to the place where it was originally borrowed at 0%.
Think about it.
Let’s say you went nuts and borrowed thousands of dollars when the interest rate was 0%, then invested it in U.S Equities hoping you could make a buck. Months later your U.S Equities trades are flat at best, but even more likely sitting at a loss. Then you figure out……hey wait a minute – if we get an interest rate hike here in The States…this market is gonna tank! You sit there thinking…..man I better get the hell out of here, or I am gonna get killed.
Imagine if they actually DO raise rates in the U.S today? You are hooooooped!
How will I pay back all that Yen I borrowed??
So you unwind your trade. You sell your U.S Equities likely at a loss…..then you have to convert the U.S Dollars “back” to Yen ( at a new rate that also hurts ) and finally pay back your loan. This is the fundamental driver behind movement in the currency pair USD/JPY. This is why it’s been tanking since markets “actually topped” back in late 2015. Everything else has been pure distribution as the big boys and heavy hitters unwind their Yen Carry trade, and it’s taken more than a year to quietly do so.
You can see it on the charts so clearly, and now that USD/JPY is at parity……things could get pretty ugly.
Clear signs that markets have more or less topped out – and have been distributing to retail “hopefuls” for the past full year.
Little mining stocks on fire….just getting started in the larger macro trend people so……go grab a couple!