As I follow Asian markets far closer than I do those of the Western Hemisphere – Look out!
Japan’s just opened and is already down – 520 or 3%….then Hang Seng as well down 3% already!
For those of you in U.S Equities……Look out below.
Gonna get uuuuugly here in weeks to come.
The wait has been brutal, and the USD pairs “wide-ranging behavior” has made it very difficult to pick a specific level, and feel “good” about nailing an entry.
Patience has been pushed to the limit, as the daily volatility continues to wipe out the small guys.
I dare say it again…..but we should see the waterfall commence here very , very soon.
With continued concentration on the JPY pairs vs AUD, NZD and CAD – what can be said?
These trades continue to produce, now I dunno….several hundreds of pips ( 1000’s cumulatively ) in the green.
If you’ve still got a couple pennies in your jeans…..remain short…add short risk as we are clearly moving lower ( and in my view even lower ).
Interestingly……you can’t have a low in Oil…….without a high / turn in USD ( as oil is priced in USD )
I remain short risk…..long JPY and short USD….and as suggested some weeks ago – Feel free to take a look at the profits come mid/late October.
Q: What did the midget say when I asked him for a dollar?
A: “Sorry bud……………………………………….I’m a little short”.
Feel free to pull the trigger anywhere in here today, as most currency pairs have done what was expected – providing for fantastic entries here “short USD” and short “risk in general”.
You’ll see a number of the other usual correlations play out ( as this is so straight forward and obvious ) with commodities moving higher as “the currency that they are priced in” slides lower, then lower…….and lower some more. And yes folks…..even gold and silver!
Again I marvel at the “hoards of financial bloglodytes” peddling this kind of information for money.
This is about as common knowledge as it gets.
Literally……”Introduction to economics 101″.
Learn something here.
As a point of interest. Mark a couple of price levels on any given pair…….NOW.
Then…….sit out the bullshit / retail gong show volatility that will ensue this afternoon.
We will reconvene this afternoon/tomorrow morning as you save yourself the grief of “guessing/hoping” you’ve traded the news correctly.
You won’t miss a thing….in fact you will “gain” as……..
You grow as a trader…..and let the market “tell you” which direction it’s headed all on it’s own.
“Then” you make your play.
So we patiently wait for the Fed rate hike decision, and markets go nowhere.
Tomorrow we will finally get out of this seemingly endless grind sideways – going on nearly a full month now, when The U.S announces it’s decision on rates.
If you are “still” holding short USD and long JPY plays as I am – please be aware. The sudden reaction / volatility surrounding such a major news event demands “mucho respeto” ( much respect ). I anticipate large “sudden” moves in BOTH directions ( no shit sunshine! ) with plans to “add short risk” on any large-scale bounce.
The general lay of the land is just as well explained by Kathy Lien in the link below.
http://www.investing.com/analysis/trading-fomc-is-not-a-simple-binary-bet-265020
Ms. Lien is so completely and totally boring it would be difficult to read much more than a single paragraph, but in this instance – she illustrates the possible outcomes “well”.
Any way you cut it, global markets will be down considerably into the middle / late October, so to be honest I could care less what happens tomorrow, but for those of you who are a little more “jumpy” than I – be very cautious with your trading prior to the announcement.
If you are out of the market then stay out…then look to pick off opportunities after the gong show.
USD looking prime for complete and total “cliff dive” – alongside “all things risky”.
Even if you are still holding long now ( which is ridiculous by any stretch of the imagination ) it may not be too late.
Get ready for the dump.
Volatility has had equity markets trade up and down over the past week, and currency markets have remained flat.
I assume that will end today.
You won’t survive the next leg down, and if you’re not short USD ( as well long JPY against the planet ) you are clearly on the wrong side of the trade.
But what else is new right? Retail will be retail.
This afternoon I plan to eat copious amounts of over priced Canadian sushi, while sipping vats of the finest sake Japan has to offer.
Come late October………… you can ask me how fat I am.
Get out. Get short. Get bent.
Have it your way.
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