forex trading

Beer Money In 2014 – Happy New Year!

Forex Kong 5 Comments

With the fundamentals “out the window” now going on some 6-9 months ( if not the entire year of 2014 ) traders and analysts alike have simply stuck with the familiar adage “you can’t fight The Fed ” and just buy the dip.

No question that “if” you’ve been able to endure the massive swings (Sept – Oct for example – essentially wiping the entire “yearly Dow gains” in a matter of 12 days ) or even the smaller one just recently ( drilling The Dow 1000 points in a matter of 6 days ) you should be very, very , very proud of yourself.

Oddly….you never really hear much from “perma bulls” during these times, and one really has to wonder…if it was just that easy to “buy and hold” – then shouldn’t virtually “everyone” be stinking filthy rich right around now??

Funny……you don’t really hear much of that kinda talk either, and by way of U.S unemployment figures ( another miss at 298,000 last week ) you have to appreciate the “mixed message” most people are getting. Is this thing going up? Or is this thing going down?

It’s really the “art of survival” these days. Bull or bear….if you’ve got some extra money in your pocket at the end of the year hey…..job well done.

2015 will undoubtedly bring with it an “even more challenging trade environment” as global geo-political tensions are clearly on the rise, Central Banks are “still” struggling to put floors underneath spiraling economies, and global growth forecasts have been cut, then cut…….then cut again.

I wish all of you the very best in the new year, and as always – encourage you to stay vigilant. The rug gets pulled very quickly, and if I’ve learned anything over these past few years….I’d rather be the guy standing over in the corner………. with a cold beer in hand when it does.

Happy New Year all!

 

USD Sliding Closer – Japan Already Off The Edge

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Not exactly the “best end to the year” for the good ol Nikkei eh?

Down some 6-700 points over the past two days.

You know I’ve recently been focused on USD, but lets not forget – the insane QE program of The BOJ is “still” propping up USD/JPY and U.S Equities the best it can.

Even though the entire planet clearly recognizes…it’s “end game for Japan”. I can’t imagine a single long term / medium term investor could possibly “still believe” that The BOJ is going to print / buy itself out of the current “never ending spiral” of the Japanese economy. No chance. End game Japan.

So…..USD has “almost” created the “swing high” I’m looking for ( falling short by a point er two ) while U.S Equities have struggled. The SP 500 has now fallen “back into the expanding megaphone pattern”.

What happened to all the “year end buying” and all the chatter online of the “bonuses on Wall St” / and continued move into stocks?

What a load of crap.

The Central Banks are starting to lose the “confidence game” if you ask me….and I’m equally confident that Draghi and the ECB will also dissapoint here mid January.

So what’s left?

Day in, day out….the constant debate of “how many points higher The SP will go”? Wow….even if it’s 2130 or 2200 for that matter…it only amount to a couple days worth of trade action.

I’m looking to stick a fork in this thing.

The low volume / holiday season type action does nothing for you short term guys. If you’re not looking at the “medium term” swing upon us well…..get used to another couple of weeks with no clear advantage.

I’m looking to jump on this “short USD” trade as outlined a couple days ago. So far……( short of pulling the trigger ) I like what I see.

Members will get the trades here in real time as they come to fruition.

Happy New Year everyone!

Christmas Time With Family – Be Thankful

Forex Kong 5 Comments

As a child I remember it well…..Christmas was always amazing.

No matter where we were, whatever the circumstances – my parents always made Christmas something very special for my brother and I.

The tree was magnificent, the lights, the music, the food and the gifts!! Always “so much more” than either if us could ever have imagined.

“Spoiled rotten” as it were.

Looking back I realize “now” ( as when you’re a kid – who gives a shit right?? ) that it likely wasn’t easy from them. Raising two boys ( eating them out of house and home ) the money to provide such a wonderful experience may “or may not” have been there year after year….but we’d never have known.

Year after year I got every single freakin thing I’d ever wanted. We were “on top of the world” hearing my Dad’s cheery voice in the wee hours of Christmas morning – “Ho ho ho !!”…..”Ho ho ho !!”

I bolted out of bed like a rocket…literally….I’m not even sure my feet hit the ground.

These are very fond memories. Things I will never forget.

So……. I’m far far from home for yet another year, but the memories will suffice for now.

I want to pass along a very Merry Christmas to everyone here at Kong, and encourage you to enjoy every last-minute you possibly can with your family and friends.

These are the people who love you…..no matter how far from home you may stray.

Merry Christmas everyone!!

 

 

I Will Short USD – See You In January

Forex Kong 3 Comments

Just a few quick clicks away……USD at 90.15 – Please mark this post.

Today’s magical “U.S GDP revision” is the icing on the cake.

I have never in my life seen data / information so grossly manipulated, so completely out of wack….so totally out of this world as to suggest a U.S “revised 5% GDP” output for the 3rd quarter.

You would have to have had your head buried under the front porch of “yer hill billy cabin in the hills” this entire year to buy that.

It’s absolutely insulting…considering any human being with half a brain would “actually believe” this. You too must be “off your rocker”.

The U.S Dollar is only days from topping out, and a number of other “area’s of the market” are already well on their way.

Take a look at “IBB” The Biotechnology ETF selling off, as well “JNK” junk bonds now set for reversal.

I may or not be posting tomorrow or Thursday, but if you see a “red candle” in USD either tomorrow or the next day – you know where I’ll be.

I’m only a couple “pushes of the button” away from one of my largest / most confident trades of the year.

I wish you all the best over the coming holidays! Merry Ho ho ho ho ho!!

Long Term Investors – The World Has Changed

Forex Kong 10 Comments

You don’t need to hear anymore from me on the subject, but I strongly encourage long-term investors and perhaps anyone over the age of 40 to pull up a chair, sit back in front of your beautiful hi-res monitor, get comfy and watch the following video.

Jim Rickards is an extremely intelligent and highly regarded professional in his field, with a unique ability to take very complicated and confusing elements of the global financial system, simplify them, and explain their implications/ramifications – making it very easy to understand.

From the coming fall of the Petro Dollar to China’s interest in buying gold, Mr. Rickards cuts through the bull and provides a very clear picture of what investors can expect in the years to come.

I strongly recommend you take the time to familiarize yourself with the information and principles outlined, as there is absolutely no question it will be of considerable value to you.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KYW5OGWfqJc]

 

Falling Oil Prices = Slowing Global Demand

Forex Kong 6 Comments

With readership here at Kong now doubling “again” over the past few months – I struggle to understand what “new information” people are looking for.

You do understand that the recent fall in oil prices ( well …actually not so recent considering it’s been falling like a rock since June – down from 110 to now 58 bucks a barrel ) is a blatant and obvious indication that “global growth” and “global demand for oil” is falling off a cliff right?

Seriously…….if you don’t see the connection between “supply and demand” in something this blatant and simple well…….one has to wonder “what you do see” – if anything relevant at all.

Finally something “other than The Fed / mainstream media bullshit” to get you off the couch and start asking yourself?

Could it actually be? You mean all this Kong talk of “global slowdown” over the past months ( despite the ridiculous rise in equity pricing ) is actually for real?

Give your head a shake. The world outside your tiny bubble of plastic wrap and pizza boxes is selling off like hotcakes and you still think Apple looks like a buy here at 110.

Oil related currencies such as The Canadian Dollar as well The Mexican Peso are getting creamed even as The U.S Dollar is falling hard, and The Japanese Yen enters “lift off stage”.

Debate over the next couple weeks and “what ever miniscule points are left” in the general propping up of both Japanese and American markets is a dead mule.

Step back and imagine oil at 30 bucks…perhaps that will get your attention.

 

No Central Bank Bull Today – Just U.S Budget Balance

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Hmmm……

Nikkei down another  150 here as of this “early morning writing ” ( it’s 5:30 here this morning ) and no big moves up in SP futures.

It still “feels” a little early but thus far reaction to the move from The PBOC has been sustained. Markets are not looking very “green” to say the least, but we all know what generally happens every morning before the U.S open.

USD/JPY usually ramps – but thus far………trading flat as are EUR/USD as well GBP/USD.

One “has to wonder” what “breaking news” from one CB or another will manage to make its way into the headlines any minute.

I can only suggest to get “under or over” currency pairs by a minimum of 50 pips, getting a couple orders into the system and just letting momentum pick you up.

Today could just as easily be a tiny “doji type candle” or very small / flat as Thursdays generally bring about the larger move.

USD has now met “all criteria needed” to satisfy the beginning of its intermediate decline, but that’s not to say things still can’t move sideways another day or two.

The sustained move lower in oil has obviously got the energy markets spooked, Yen has now put in a solid “swing low” as USD looks to have topped out. Gold and Silver consolidating the big “up moves” from yesterday so……everything “appears” to be on track.

Expect this afternoons “US Federal Budget Balance” number to again miss / disappoint as government spending continues to “grossly surpass” government revenue by oh….I dunno….120 “billion” per month?

Sounds very healthy.

Chinese Stocks – Largest One Day Fall Since 2009

Forex Kong Got something to say?

It’s all too easy for investors to get caught up in the hype of the current “western media spin”, going about their daily business with the general belief that everything is moving along nicely – as U.S stocks remain elevated.

But one has to remember ( and especially these days ) that we live in a “global economy” where the puzzle pieces are so interconnected “planet wide” that even the smallest ripple in “other markets” can have a sizeable effect on things closer to home.

Last night ( on the heels of recent moves by The People Bank of China to actually “tighten monetary policy ) The Shanghai index fell 5.4%, registering the largest one day fall since 2009.

More from The Wall Street Journal:

 China’s stocks, currency and corporate bonds suffered their largest tumbles in years Tuesday after Beijing took fresh steps to rein in growing risks in the country’s debt-laden financial system.

The selloff started in the bond market, as traders rushed to sell and raise cash after a regulator banned investors from using low-grade corporate debt as collateral to borrow cash. The turmoil then spread to the yuan, which recorded its biggest two-day tumble ever. Later, the benchmark Shanghai index slumped 5.4% to record its biggest fall since 2009.

The sudden moves serve as a reminder to global investors about the country’s shaky finances, just as China opens up its capital markets more to overseas cash. Policy makers gathering in Beijing this week for a key summit are signaling to the investing public that they should prepare for a lengthy period of slower economic growth after years of amassing debt to fuel high growth levels.

It should come as no surprise that both The U.S Dollar as well U.S Equities enter “free fall mode” here this morning – with the current global economy resting like a house of cards built on pillars of sand.

There has never been a time in our history where the “global economic picture” has been so fragile, after the crash of 2007/2008 and the last 6 years of Central Bank driven “pseudo recovery” the “tiniest little breeze” has the potential to push that house cards “way out ” into the surf.

Life preservers and floatation devices now being checked and re-checked, as Gorilla’s are generally pretty shitty swimmers.

 

 

 

More Funny Money From The ECB? – Not So Fast

Forex Kong 14 Comments

Todays European Central Bank announcement marks the very last “Central Bank risk event” on the calendar for 2014, as the world awaits even more easing / asset purchases from yet another of our favorite Central Banks.

The Euro has been beaten down for weeks leading up to the announcement this morning, with general market expectations “on high” – assuming Draghi will do what he’s been told to do, stay extremely dovish and give the market what it wants.

Unfortunately……The ECB has a much more difficult task than most CB’s in representing an 18 member group of countries as opposed to only one ( in the case of Japan or The U.S ) so I can only assume that we get “more of the same” from Draghi here today ie…….alot of talk ( which has been working well enough ) but very little action.

The “shared currency experiment” certainly has it’s drawbacks as it’s nearly impossible to keep everybody happy with countries such as Germany generally “towing the line” while Spain, Portugal, Italy etc continue to drift into the economic abyss.

One could assume that whatever the immediate reaction to Draghi’s statement is, this will likely put a floor under the Euro as there will be nothing more to expect until the first quarter of 2015.

 

Oil Prices Plummet – What Does It Mean?

Forex Kong 3 Comments

The big news over the past 48 hours has obviously been OPEC’s surprise decision “not” to cut oil production.

In a world of increasingly “lower demand” for oil ( further confirmation of a truly “global slowdown” ) The Saudi’s have opted to sustain production of 30 million barrels per day, keeping market share and putting a real squeeze on The American shale / fracking business, that generally needs to see oil at 75-80 barrel just to remain profitable.

The net effect is generally perceived as “net negative” for oil exporting countries, and could also be a potential catalyst for weakness in U.S equities, with indices carrying “significant weighting” of oil / energy related companies.

The Saudi’s can produce oil much , much cheaper than other nations so in keeping production output high ( and in turn driving prices lower ) there may be more to this than first meets the eye.

A strategic move to drive other oil exporters ( in particular The U.S with it’s high costs of production ) out of the market? 65 dollar bbl oil puts the majority of U.S oil exporters on the back foot and potentially “out of business” should these price levels remain, not to mention driving home the point that “indeed” global demand for oil is certainly on the decline.

I believe it was a 35-40% decrease in the price of oil that also proceeded equities downturns in both 2008 as well 2011.

We are almost exactly at the same point with oil prices as of this morning, so it remains to be seen “what reaction” we may see here in the West as markets digest the information.

First the currency war and now perhaps a “commodity war”? Needless to say….never a dull moment here these days – with “yet another shocker” rippling through markets here this week.

Let’s see what The Central Banks do next right? As this has absolutely nothing to do with you or I.