forex trading

Do or Die For USD – Seriously…It's Do or Die

Forex Kong 10 Comments

At these levels you’ve got a pretty serious situation on your hands.

The U.S Dollar is literally “a hair way” from breaking below an “extremely significant level of support” with some pretty wide-reaching implications.

A massive drop in value of USD from here ( where it’s “already” dropped huge! ) would have serious ramifications as the international investment community and “world-wide holders of USD” would be concerned – continuing to watch their “USD reserves” reduced to toilet paper.

How much lower before a “literal waterfall” ensues? With international holders of USD finally giving up and “adding” to the selling pressure –  hoping to “just get out” with whatever they have left.

On the flip side……a “much expected bounce” and medium term move higher in USD will also force bond yields higher, tank corporate lending, push up interest rates and add continued pressure on the repayment costs of the U.S Governments monumental mountain of debt??

The U.S Government and buddies at the Federal Reserve have put themselves in a corner alright………………….with the only ones I imagine paying for it – being U.S citizens.

Bravo!

 

 

 

 

Sold As Suggested – Top Call Vindicated

Forex Kong Got something to say?

This is being sold – as suggested.

The Nikkei is now down an additional -430 points, so only another “couple 1000 more points lower” to go on this “next leg down” – as suggested. Watching for 11,500 or 12,000 area.

The Nikkei leads as the money printing in Japan ( and it’s use in buying U.S equities ) has been driving the last legs of this….as U.S big boys have been selling you “their own stock” for months now, while the Fed cash just sits with the banks – as suggested.

There’s really not much more to say about it, as even if / when some “new nominal spike” takes SP / Dow prices near highs again, then again….and even “again” – it’s just more desperation / attempt to keep the ponzi alive a little bit longer.

Talk about a cynic, as I’ll be watching out for “false flags” anytime soon, with the U.S media machine and government clowns look for anything they can possibly muster  – to get people’s eyes off this.

Declaration of war next? Alien invasion?

Let’s see what they come up with next.

Moooooooo!

 

 

 

 

What If I Was Right? – And The Top Is In

Forex Kong 24 Comments

Lets entertain a hypothetical situation for a moment…I mean – why not right?

Let’s say “what if”………

What if I’m correct in suggesting that the 15,000 area of The Japanese Nikkei Index marks the top, and that indeed ( as seen in the past ) this “top” will soon be mirrored in U.S Equities as well?

Now I’m not talking about a “mid-term top” or a “short-term top” – I’m talking about the “top of all tops”. The kind of top you can only imagine / dream that you may have been fortunate enough to have identified, and in turn – traded accordingly.

Yes….”that” kind of top.

So…..What if I’m right?

Can you imagine having yourself positioned not only “before” a major turn in the markets but for a “bearish turn” at that? Allowing your trades to move into profit based on market dynamics “driven by fear and panic”?

How bout letting those trades sit ( much like an investment ) for several months, or even ( in timing it correctly ) “several years” considering what might be coming down the pipe in a longer term “global macro” sense?

What if these levels in stock market valuations ( in both Japan as well U.S ) reflect levels that may “never be seen again”, or at least not for several years to come?

What if?

It’s fun to think about, especially as these past months have been so tricky.

I keep coming back to that 20 year chart I posted the other day, considering that “wow you know Kong……you might just be right”.

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Nikkei_Longer_Term

You might just be right.

Shit Will Hit The Fan In Ukraine

Forex Kong 6 Comments

This is getting ridiculous, and much like a small boy poking a stick into a hornet’s nest – The United States is getting close and closer to “taking the short end of that”.

I’d suggested some time ago that “if you don’t know what’s really going on in The Ukraine” – you should really take a closer look.

Behind the unfortunate disappearance of flight 370, and the never-ending daily coverage ( I swear..my CNN watch has it that this “must be” the single most important story on the face of the planet! ) sit headlines of much greater “global significance”.

The situation in The Ukraine is heating up – and heating up fast as Obama’s complete and total desperation reaches new levels.

  • http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-07/russia-accuses-us-mercenaries-inciting-civil-war-ukraine
  • http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-08/crackdown-begins-ukraine-launches-anti-terrorist-operations-eastern-ukraine-arrests-

Keep in mind that for the most part…..these areas/people of The Ukraine “want” to become part of Russia, so running out in the streets looking to “arrest and detain” these protestors can’t sit well with Mr. Putin.

Obama is pushing his luck here…and I have every bit of confidence that – Russia will not sit idle much longer.

40 Days Trading – Wiped Clean In 72 Hours

Forex Kong 9 Comments

I get the impression that for the most part…..many of you aren’t “particularily thrilled” with what you read here day to day.

You may pass by occasionally, maybe looking to “round out your daily reading” with something a little different, or perhaps you check in once in a while for a laugh at what “ol Kong” has to say about this or that, or maybe ( just as likely ) you stop by with a tiny little “chip there on your shoulder” hoping all the while ( somewhere there in the back of your mind…) that I’m flat out 100% wrong. That’s right – wrong.

Dead wrong. Completely wrong. Totally wrong. No?

Wouldn’t you rather that I’m wrong?

How bout the Japanese Nikkei crapping out at 15,000 and in turn……40 “trading days” of SP 500 profits wiped clean within 72 hours?

You liked that one?

I’ll bet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If Not Gorillas – We Are All But Cows

Forex Kong 16 Comments

Let’s say you’re a cow farmer with your “bread and butter business” relying  on how fat/large your cows can get – then the appropriate time to slaughter/sell in order to maximize your profits.

Over time you feed your cows what they need, you even massage them ( in the case of Kobi beef ) you take care of their overall well-being, you protect them from predators and do for the most part – whatever you can to foster “maximum growth”.

The cows appear content, and everything is looking good as your herd has fatten up quite nicely over the past 5 years but finally…………….the time has come.

You’ve caught wind of large storms brewing the east, you’ve had a few renovation costs on the farm, feed costs are set to rise and you’ve done everything you can – given this extended period of good fortune to “fatten the heard”.

Round up ensues.

After some time, you’ve got most of them in the corral but….for those few last stragglers you’ve set out something special……something “gaurenteed” to get them in, and get them in quickly.

The cows just can’t resist, and before long your corral is literally “packed”, you can’t take a single cow more, the storm is clearly seen on the horizon, and the machines running on the “inside of the factory” are primed. Blades sharpened, belts tightened, grinders set.

You’ve timed it perfectly.

You are a master of your craft, a master of deception as the herd of “happy cows” come “willingly down the chute”, bowing their heads to come underneath the structures above, and aligning their heads “absolutely perfectly in line” with what we’ll just call……..the final surprise.

The herd has served you well, as you knew this would be the case…….. but that’s not quite enough for you no……..

It’s those calfs out in the field you’ve got your eyes on now.

Nikkei Has Topped – There I Said It Dumb Ass

Forex Kong 5 Comments

It’s my belief that the Japanese “Nikkei Index” has indeed topped, and actually did so back around 16,450 at the beginning of the year. Ya, ya , ya – I don’t usually do this / make such bold calls but what the hell…..these days I see every bozo under the sun suggesting things will go up forever so…..you can “take heed” or “take a hike” – trade it as you see fit.

This last “run up to around 15,000” ( where I’ve suggested again, and again, and again we’d see reversal ) has been what some might consider “wave 2” ( if you are an Elliot Wave guy ) leaving open consideration for a much larger “next leg down”.

The Nikkei topped AHEAD OF THE DOW in 2007 in very much the same fashion.

Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007

Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007

Remember this “beauty” from a few months back showing the Nikkei over a 20 year time frame?

*Draw a horizontal line at 15,000 in your mind. That is what we call a very, very, VERY strong line of either support or resistance – considering it’s significance over such a long period of time.

 

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Japan is a disaster, and when looking at things in this context – so is everything else as…..the Nikkei generally leads.

Perhaps this will shed some light as well….on my views about Central Banking and money printing as ( if you can imagine ) the massive dilution of the Yen ( as well USD ) over the past years, if only to achieve an incremental “short-term rise” in stock prices then……..to see things fall right back to where they started – just with waaaaay more “toilet paper” floating around.

Nothing has really changed, short of an incredible “transfer of wealth” from those already left with very little………to those who’ve already got a lot more than they need.

(P.S….in light of this “bold post” I might as well throw caution to the wind and tell you to run out tomorrow, sell your house, rack up every credit card you can, sell everything you own, leverage everything you’ve got another 500%, then “pre – market” dump every penny on a get rich quick “short play” Nikkei/Dow/whatever”, sit back and just watch the millions pile up.)

Please……..don’t be silly. I’m a single gorilla, with a single opinion and view of these things that for the most part – doesn’t generally fit the status quo.

Don’t be a dumb ass.

I know you’re not.

 

 

 

 

What Do You Know? – I'm All Ears

Forex Kong 1 Comment

Friday’s sell off in U.S Equities certainly took a number of people by surprise now didn’t it?

This in itself “not surprising” as the current state of “passivity” and “complacency” among investors is at or “above” all time highs. People have got this crazy idea in their heads that everything is moving along as planned, the “recovery” is well underway and that essentially ( no matter how many times they change their tune ) the Fed is there to screw you oops – “save you” if things start to get ugly.

I borrowed this chart from the good fellows at Zero Hedge to illustrate an important point.

Realistically – how much further do you think the market can stretch ( considering we are already in one of the longest, overstretched, Fed induced, pump job markets in the history of mankind ) before doing what “markets always do” as illustrated in the chart below?

Markets_Top_Forex_Kong

Markets_Top_Forex_Kong

What could possibly have you think that for “whatever reason” – this time it’s going to be different, with historical data going back to “the beginning of time” showing the “boom and bust cycle” repeat, again , and again , and again?

Tell me! Don’t just read this crummy little blurp and go back to the T.V! You tell me what it is that “you know” that has it that “this time”…yes “THIS TIME” – IT’S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT.

  • It can’t be the Fed…..cuz ( haven’t you been listening? ) the Fed says it’s going to continue with it’s tapering and within the next year END IT’S QE PROGRAM all together….so don’t give me that.
  • It certainly won’t be U.S Corporate earnings as expectations for earnings have come down considerably for the first quarter, and what? You imagine the spring and summer quarters will be any better?
  • It can’t be “global growth” as every estimate from the IMF down to the average joe blow walking down the street knows – global growth “ain’t goin nowhere” anytime soon so…….

So what is it Sherlock? What is it that “you know” that the rest of us don’t, that would have you “buy and hold” now?

5 plus years of full blown money printing and equity pump job to have it that 326,000 MORE Americans stood in the unemployment insurance line last week, and 1 in 5 households in American are currently on food stamps.

I can’t wait to hear back. I seriously “can’t wait” to hear back.

 

Nikkei Loses 15,000 – Need I Say More?

Forex Kong 16 Comments

I don’t know what you people are watching these days….likely too much T.V.

The Nikkei just broke below 15,000 oh and look!!

U.S stocks taking a hit, as the final gasps of “hot money” out of Japan start heading for home in preparation for whats coming next.

JPY making a very VERY solid move higher as we’ve been over about a million times.

But let’s just forget all about that….and keep our eyes peeled for CNBC to tell us when things will go higher.

Disgust. Horror. Disdain. Vomit. Choke. Sputter.

More Of The Same – Markets Chase Tail

Forex Kong 5 Comments

Gold taking a bounce here as would be expected.

I’ve got plans to sell nearly anything and “everything” gold and silver related mid-week “next week” on whatever continued strength.

You can’t look past the fact that tensions with Russia ( as well China really ) could put even more strain on the U.S Dollar ( ie……these big boys “selling” ) so……with this in mind….do I think the Fed will let go of its grasp on gold and silver in the paper market “tomorrow”?

Not likely.

Otherwise….stopped out on GBP/AUD and will just try again. So it goes…..so goes trading – no big thing.

Otherwise….all data out of U.S continues to “completely miss” with this morning looking as bleak as ever…so obviously stocks rise.

Yen strength here ( odd in light of “risk” climbing higher ) in stark contrast to “all is well” mentality running at extremes.

Night night Ukraine as the IMF finally gets its mits on The Ukraine with promise of massive loans etc..

Friday morning with little else to say or do.

 

Have a good weekend all.