I’ve used this mornings jump in USD to exit every single trade I’ve had open for 6% on the week.
I’m also having computer trouble here so the timing couldn’t be better. It’s Friday and it looks like another beautiful day here so…..I’m planning to just get outside and leave this rats nest to the rest of you.
At least for a couple hours here this morning.
You know…….If I was currently the CEO of one of the largest social media sites on the planet, I’d likely want to take my company public too. I mean why not right? You and your original investor base, board of directors, underwriters/bankers , family and friends, all made “multi millionaires” – practically overnight.
It’s a fantastic achievement, and an incredible opportunity for those so fortunate as to take advantage. During the internet craze of 2000 I too was encouraged to take my company public – but just couldn’t get through the paperwork / logistics etc…..
So here we are on the cusp of yet another “awesome internet offering” at a time / place where I for one am just a “tiny bit skeptical”.
Twitter has yet to turn a profit.
Of course I understand the model / internet / eyeballs / projections etc……but to be frank, and as an investor – the company evaluation looking like 23 – 25 dollars per share. No profits.
Could these guys be “even smarter” than you think?
Could Twitter’s I.P.O mark the top?
Food for thought people………I’m not involved.
Open’s 25 rips to 40…….then tanks to 12.50?
Sounds about right to me.
The symbol “TLT” which tracks the value of the “U.S Treasury 10 year bond price” has “firmly been rejected” at a very strong level of resistance around 107.50 and continues to fall – now at 105.06
When “bond prices fall” ( the price at which you purchase the paper ) in turn “bond yields rise” ( the rate of interest paid out on the bond ) – as simple mechanics of how the bond market works.
When we see bond “yields rise” and “bond prices” fall, we better understand why the Fed currently buys around 85% of the new debt issued by the Treasury, as “if they didn’t” – bond prices would crater, and the rate of interest owed would skyrocket crushing the U.S under the “already unsustainable” debt load / interest payments.
We saw Greek bond yields move upward in the neighborhood of 27% to up to 48% during the crisis, signalling to the world that in order to “encourage investment in their country” bond holders would require this kind of payout.
This kind of rise in bond yields is a massive forward indicator that ” a country is in real trouble” as sellers dump like mad – and bond yields shoot for the moon.
Always ALWAYS keep your eyes on the bond market for signals of larger moves to come.
We’ll see a pullback in USD here as, on a purely technical level ( looking at smaller time frames such as the 4H and 1H ) she’s extremely overbought.
Considering the over all volatility this “counter trend move” may also prove to be quite dramatic / powerful as “yet again” late comers ( as I see it – pretty much the entire financial blogosphere ) chase a train that’s already left the station.
It’s “buy the dip time” in USD.
Commodities got smoked here as suggested, but in all – gold itself has held up “reasonably well”.
I knew this move was going to be powerful ( although the general “silence” here at the blog “trade wise” has me thinking that most of you didn’t buy that ) and now find myself booking huge profits – looking for re-entry.
I hate to say it but……Thursday is a long way off, and I have a sneaking suspicion we’re not going to see much “tradable action” early in the week.
With some decent numbers out of China over the weekend I expect a little “bouncy bouncy” in AUD and perhaps risk in general as USD pulls back a touch before making the next leg higher.
You’ve really got to be nimble these days to bank profits, and get set for the next short-term move, as “buy n hold” or “sell n hold” for that matter just might have you “holding a bag”.
Stay safe people…and trade within your means.
The strength of the US Dollar has gathered steam over the past few days, with several trades “long USD” already paying well. I don’t imagine this to be your average “run of the mill” type move here – so I feel it worthy of further discussion / analysis.
The US Dollar will most certainly be moving lower in the “not so distant future”, but we trade what we’ve got in front of us so……
Forex_Kong_USD_Moving_Higher
In looking to line up these “technicals” with some broader “intermarket analysis” we’ve got to consider that U.S equities have made some pretty huge gains since January of this year , as USD has more or less gone “up the mountain and back down the other side” – now at exactly the same level around 79.00.
With an impending correction “upward” in USD it would make sense to “finally see equities correct lower” ( if that’s at all possible considering the Fed’s POMO) and unfortunately for many – see gold and the precious metals correct lower as well.
Looking at forex markets it’s obvious the “opposite reaction” of a much stronger US Dollar will equate to a weaker EUR as well GBP and CHF. I would also expect the commodity currencies to correct lower as well, but considering that they’ve already fallen considerably – my focus would be on the Euro type pairs.
So that’s what I’m running with over the next few days – looking to “inch in” to many trades with a “risk off” vibe, and continued strength in the dreaded U.S Dollar.
As I sit here sipping the finest tequilla, minding a couple of fillet mignon and working on some veggies – I contemplate what the boys in Washington are doing at this moment.
Obama most likely has his head in his hands or perhaps has “retired” to a private area – digesting the current fiasco playing out with respect to the “Obama Care” roll out, and good ol Uncle Ben can’t be too thrilled about the rise in USD.
Me? – I just cracked another cold one.
Could it be any worse for these guys?
People now realizing the incredible increase in payments, the difficulties in qualification, and the out right “lies” put forth over the past years in selling this thing to the masses.
I don’t know all the details, and likely never will – but what I do understand is “sentiment”.
When “investor sentiment” changes ie…people become enraged/ scared/fed up/rebellious etc…it always reflects in financial markets. If only a mirror of human behavior, as it pertains to both greed and fear – financial markets provide an incredible field of study.
I can’t imagine it could get much worse for poor ol Barak here, as people are pissed – really pissed.
Sentiment is on the verge of change/ rolling over – and we don’t want to be on the wrong side of that.
Forex Trade Strategies – October 29,2013
It would appear that the U.S Dollar is making its “swing low” here this morning, suggesting that a bottom is close at hand. This one isn’t likely going to be your “usual” bottom in the dollar as it’s now reached extreme oversold levels as well as an area of sizeable support.
As we’ve discussed here many times – when the elastic band gets stretched “too far” the corresponding “snap back” is usually quite fierce, as many inexperienced traders are caught leaning to heavily in the wrong direction.
Wednesday’s Fed meeting/ announcement “should” likely provide the catalyst, and it will be very interesting to see which way a number of asset classes move with respect to whatever is said.
When looking “long USD” here its fair to say that the currency pairs EUR/USD as well GBP/USD should turn downward, as well USD/CHF to the upside – these are pretty much a given, but the commodity currencies will remain “on hold” until we get more clarity.
Both AUD as well NZD have taken “reasonable” turns to the downside as of late “along with” a continually falling US Dollar so……it remains to be see if these will also “continue lower” as the USD carves out this turn.
I plan to trade this quite aggressively as I expect the USD move to be a whopper. Off the top it usually doesn’t bode well for the gold and the metals when we see the Dollar rise….but if this time we see a “rise on flight to safety” it’s not at all hard to imagine both gold and the USD moving higher together.
I will be watching / posting via twitter for real-time moves , as well looking to celebrate my 1st Year Anniversary here at Forex Kong tomorrow!
What “is” wrong with me?
Have I become so crotchy and skeptical as to actually consider next weeks FOMC meeting as yet another “wonderful opportunity” for the Fed to “yet again” pull a fast one the unsuspecting and “all too trusting” American investor?
They said they where going to taper “last time” ( as the Fed “should” be trusted to give guidance on its plans moving forward ) with every analyst and talking muppet on T.V talking it up as if it was an absolute “given”. Then “blasted” anyone and everyone who may have been “preparing” by “not tapering”. The Fed lost what little credibility it still had, and many lost “mucho”.
Am I insane? Have I lost my mind?
Would I be completely out to lunch considering that there is just as likely a chance “this time” that the Fed ( in the current scenario with the massive blow over the debt ceiling, government shut down and still terrible employment data) has everyone assuming “it’s impossible to taper” ( which in theory it is) and “once again” finds opportunity to screw the lot of you?
“Fed announces small 10 billion tapering of bond purchasing program” and the markets go crazy….(Only to then INCREASE QE a month later and catch everyone again)
Or even better……”Fed announces INCREASED QE” Straight Up! Boom! Bet you didn’t see that one coming!
You can see where I’m going with this. It’s long past ridiculous, and “non of the above” would surprise me “any more” than the other.
The Fed’s involvement ( or lack of ) in today’s markets is unpresedented, and weilds such influence that getting it wrong could prove disasterous.
I KNOW what the Fed is going to do , but week to week, minute to minute – NO ONE KNOWS what these weasels are going to “say” they are going to “do”.
My gut has me thinking that “no matter what the outcome” to the FOMC meeting here wrapping up Tuesday, the market is gonna “pop” on news….and sell like hotcakes. I’d have every confidence that we are “lower” looking a week out. I’ll get these trades lined up as they come.
Forex Trade Signal – October 22, 2013
You can visit a thousand different financial websites, each evaluating the markets using a different sets of tools, each with their own “take” on where things are headed next. More often than not I find the majority of these sites generally have a steadfast view either “bullish or bearish” – and tend to just stick with that. Each looking like “heroes” for a time then taking their turn getting wacked when the market turns against them.
Staying objective and working to “trade both sides” can be challenging no question.
I wanted to draw your attention to a chart and concept I had posted on some weeks ago “EEM” the Ishares ETF tracking emerging markets. Take note that we are now at “the exact same spot” as some weeks ago, as U.S equities have continued to reach new highs.
We had discussed how “lots of those freshly printed U.S Dollars” find their way into investments in emerging markets ( as the yield on anything U.S related is nil) and how when “risk aversion” comes into play – these dollars are repatriated back to the U.S and converted “back into USD.”
Why no breakout in “EEM” then? We’re at all time highs everywhere else?
EEM_Emerging_Markets_Forex_Kong
Perhaps I’ll eat my words here, but to see this turn downward “again” in light of the fact that “everything U.S” is apparently headed for the moon certainly warrants interest.
Tomorrow’s “highly anticipated employment report” may prove to be the catalyst either way.
I remain focused on AUD and NZD as well ( and obviously ) USD here as “yet again” we find ourselves in a precarious position. It’s tough to argue with the continued “ramp” in risk assets but my analysis suggests we’ll see pullback before heading higher.
I’ve taken profits “again” here this morning on anything and everything related to the U.S dollar as well “risk” in general. It’s been a touch frustrating spending this last week “toiling away” under the daily barrage of headlines coming out of Washington, and as the days wind down to the “ultimate stand-off” on raising the debt ceiling limit – the likelihood of resolution increases.
These buffoons can’t possibly be so stupid as to actually risk default, and yet another damaging ( if not killer ) blow to American credibility on the world stage. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything more embarrassing for a country’s government, as daily news “across the entire planet” has this “top of the list” of blunders – LET ALONE THAT IT’S 100% COMPLETELY SELF IMPOSED!
It won’t be war, and it won’t be terrorism oh no…no natural disaster or alien invasion will do it nope. The American government can just step right up and get the job done itself. Absolutely unreal.
Trade wise….there is no doubt the media / Wall Street will “rejoice” a resolution, and rejoice in the knowledge that the ponzi scheme is safe and sound for another couple of months.
Commodity related currencies have traded flat as pancakes, GBP has pulled back, and for the most part its been a complete “ghost town” out there leading up to this trainwreck completing.
I’m up 3% and back on the sidelines – waiting a day or two to see how things shake out, looking to take a shot at the “pop” on resolution. Then “back with the bears” into the new year.