psychology of trading

Growth In The U.S – Agree To Disagree

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Do you believe there is real “true” growth in the U.S economy? Do you feel that the numbers quoted on T.V hold any real meaning / reflection of actual “economic growth”?

Do you “see” any real growth?

When I see a statistic quoted on T.V that is “a percentage point” different from the “expected number” or more than likely “half a percentage point” – I ask myself……..can these people actually be serious?

Can you find a single difference in your day-to-day life that hinges on what a “half a percentage point difference” in something as ridiculous as the “beige book” reflects? Have you ever heard of the “beige book”?

Does anyone even care?

“Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and based on information collected on or before January 6, 2014. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.”

Hilarious….“prepared by the Federal Reserve”.

What do you think it’s gonna say about the economy and growth?

Bury head back in sand now please.

Reflections On China – Where To Next?

Forex Kong 1 Comment

If you’re not following China’s economic story  in a “day-to-day sense” – I completely understand.

It’s not like you don’t have enough on your plate, with what’s going on in your own lives. Tough enough these days keeping up with the troubles in Europe, or the world’s largest nuclear disaster in Japan, not to mention your kids, employment, your health and likely a million other things far more pressing than “what the hell is really going on” in China.

Well…..I try keep things pretty straight forward here for that reason alone. Gimme the info , no need for a bunch of meaningless numbers and charts etc – just tell me what it amounts to, and how it may affect my investment decisions / trading moving forward. Thank you Kong, have a good day – talk to you later. Fine.

You may recall that China’s leaders had their “Third Plenum” meeting some months ago outlining a list of reforms to be taken on by the country through the coming years. The general gist of this as it may affect you is simple – China needs to move away from the policies centered on “massive and somewhat inefficient growth” to a more sustainable model where support is now given to the “tiny shoots” that may have blossomed as a result.

Simple enough, and simply put – China’s reform policies moving forward will contribute to “a generally slowing economy” as “growth” takes a temporary back seat to “sustainability”.

You also have to appreciate that China “IS” the global growth engine. China is now the largest trading nation in the world in terms of imports and exports, after overtaking the US last year.

The proposed reforms in China make absolute and perfect sense as,  much like a well-tended lawn – you’ve done the work to get that grass growing, it’s up , it’s starting to grow – but you’re certainly not going to “flood it” with a pile more fertilizer now are you?

The implementation of reforms in China will undoubtedly contribute to the slowing of global growth moving forward, but as we’ve all come to recognize / understand – this will only be a small “zig or a zag” in the long-term chart of China’s continued move higher.

CNBC Says – Get Long Japan

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Have you lost your mind?

Right now you are sitting in front of a television where a “big fat talking head” named Joshua M Brown ( at http://www.thereformedbroker.com/ ) just told you….YES AMERICA –  to “get long Japan”.

Have you lost your mind?

Perhaps this will be the one time the message gets through. The message from “those of us” outside the influence of American media and the absolute “ridiculous transfer of wealth scheme” every witnessed on planet Earth.

Have you lost your mind?

If I saw this guy pass me by on the street, you’d have to hold me back / stop me from punching him in the knee, then spitting in his ear. It’s completely and totally outrageous.

How do you sleep at night Josh Brown??

Buy The News – If You Can Afford It

Forex Kong 24 Comments

I don’t go digging up these little facts and figures on the U.S Economy myself, as the following “quote” was cute/paste/borrowed from our dear friend Dr Paul Roberts:

“””According to the official wage statistics for 2012, forty percent of the US work force earned less than $20,000, fifty-three percent earned less than $30,000, and seventy-three percent earned less than $50,000. The median wage or salary was $27,519. The amounts are in current dollars and they are compensation amounts subject to state and federal income taxes and to Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes. In other words, the take home pay is less.

To put these incomes into some perspective, the poverty threshold for a family of four in 2013 was $23,550.

In recent years, the only incomes that have been growing in real terms are those few at the top of the income distribution. Those at the top have benefitted from “performance bonuses,” often acquired by laying off workers or by replacing US workers with cheaper foreign labor, and from the rise in stock and bond prices caused by the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing. Everyone else has experienced a decline in real income and wealth.

As only slightly more than one percent of Americans make more than $200,000 annually and less than four-tenths of one percent make $1,000,000 or more annually, there are not enough people with discretionary income to drive the economy with consumer spending.”””

The question begs to be asked: With this many Americans, making so little money – how can you honestly believe they can buy stocks? Let alone support a “consumer recovery”?

The U.S stock/bond market is nothing more than a Fed manipulated/fabricated “scam” put forth in attempt to mask the true state of affairs, and to bolster global confidence for as long as possible before this thing goes off the rails completely.

Bernanke Was Drunk – I Understood Everything

Forex Kong 2 Comments

Well I’m pleased.

Still sounding like a someone scared half to death ( that little “quiver” in his voice ) Bernanke (clearly “buzzed”) fielded questions from some pretty sharp people this afternoon and frankly – I’m not sure if he answered a single one.

All the same I am pleased in that, it’s the first time I believe I’ve ever seen the man smile, or even show the tiniest bit of human emotion.

Can you even imagine how happy he must be? Carrying such a burden for so long, I seriously can’t imagine a comparative situation in my own life, where perhaps such “relief” may have been felt.

Here’s to you Ben! You gave us one hell of a ride! With enough twists n turns to give everyone “well their money’s worth”! Good luck to you Ben! All the best!

You won’t be missed.

A very interesting day out on the field today with the U.S Dollar pushing “about” as far as I’d be willing to see it before turning back for “just one more” fall. Have you seen the price of oil last 3 days as well? Wow….so who’s thinking that oil just tanks and the U.S Dollar shoots for the moon from here?

Not me……but I’ll tell you – we ARE getting very, very, very close to considerations of USD making a move higher, watching bond yields of course, then there’s that JPY and Nikkie oh….and don’t forget Gold! 

The following weeks promise to be very exciting. Have a good weekend everyone.

Gold And The U.S Dollar – Where To Next?

Forex Kong 6 Comments

A fantastic question from another valued reader.

PT asks?

“Some time back you spoke of what readers wished to hear. So I thought I’d question a true professional. As a forex novice, my query pertains to gold, silver, and its shares.Where do you see the DXY in the intermediary term (3-6 months)? I know your trades often only last hours, but what is your “change” or expectation for the dollar going forward?”

Kong says:

We’ve seen the decoupling of the traditional relationship / correlation of “lower dollar = higher
gold” right? Or have we?

Pull a 25 year chart of gold and see that this “massive correction” isn’t really that massive at all.
Compared to any other asset / chart you see on the 25 year for example….this is ( Elliot boys
chime in please ) some kind of “wave 4” maybe…..but not a change in trend!

Gold_Bull_Market_Fine_Forex_Kong

Gold_Bull_Market_Fine_Forex_Kong

I have no change in expectation for the dollar ( as I expect it to essentially go to zero ) but will
be wary / watchful for correction “just like we see in all asset classes” when the time comes.

Knowing full well “nothing moves in a straight line for long” sure…..the buck will “buck us bears”
at some point…..as the correction in gold has equally “bucked the bulls”. This shit happens every
day, in one asset or another…..one chart or another.

What most people fail to understand is that “every single pivot / zig and zag” doesn’t play out/correlate/  “on a dime”. An asset like gold ( with such a high value ) has been “on it’s own correction” based on the value / time / zigs / zags etc, while the US Dollar struggles within it’s own set of parameters.

There are points where “stars align”, but in general “intermarket analysis” is extremely difficult for a novice to effectively “time”.

If you ask me what I think. I think the U.S Dollar is going to zero and I think that gold is going to the moon. If you ask me “how long is that gonna take”?

I’ll tell you you’re trading to large, reduce your position size, don’t expect this to be easy and “don’t” pull your life savings with any expectations that you’ll “be even close” in timing it.

Near term – I’m looking for this last leg lower in the dollar – then an obvious bounce.

Unlearn Everything – Make Something New

Forex Kong 3 Comments

Without new ideas…what have we really got?

We copy, we mimic , repeat , reproduce, borrow etc…..but with nothing really new “introduced”, round and round we go, spiralling into the mundane, the benign  – all things we know to be “essentially” safe.

I’m really not much for that.

A chef may jump from culture to culture learning new things, an artists the same, pulling what they can from others, in an attempt to “make it their own” but in the end – is it really anything new?

Traders have poured over historical data for years, “looking back” in order to formulate ideas of what potentially lies ahead. The charts, the “indicators”, the jargon, the trend… all seemingly unchanged for what feels like an eternity.

Are there any new ideas left?

You bet your ass there are.

I’ve got a storage locker full of scribblers/notenbooks and a couple 100 more stuffed under my bed if you wanna talk about new ideas. 2014 is “coming” but I like to think of it more so as “I’m coming for 2014”.

This “trading thing” has been more or less an exercise so far, and I’m about ready to turn a couple of things on their heads.You’ve got to learn every single thing you can about a particular discipline, in order to throw it all out the window and contribute something new. You’ve got to learn it….to “unlearn it” in order to approach it “again” creatively.

2014 promises to be yet another incredibly challenging year, as far as trading is concerned and believe me – I’m ready.

In fact………………..I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Lets get this party started.

Merry Xmas! – Singapore! Hong Kong! Thank You!

Forex Kong 4 Comments

What better day than today to reach “back” out – and wish all of my wonderful readers / supporters the very best. Merry Christmas everyone! Where ever you are…and what ever it means to you. I wish you all the very best!

A snapshot of the top readers here at Forex Kong. The United States and Canada grabbing the top spots, with a “fantastic list of such wildly diverse cultures” rounding out the top 20/30.

I am absolutely thrilled to see / know that we’ve attracted such a global audience here over the past year. I wish you all the very best this holiday season and so look forward to trading with you in the years to come!

Merry Christmas everyone!

Forex_Kong_Global_Reach

Forex_Kong_Global_Reach

Obviously markets are flat/closed here today, but be sure to keep a watchful eye as – it “is” year end, and there are a number of factors (taxes , profit taking , etc..) that can / will move the needle.

I’m not getting too excited about much ( unfortunately ) until we get this year over with so…best to just play things safe – stay out of trouble and enjoy the holidays!

Make Mistakes – Learn – Move On – Have Fun

Forex Kong 8 Comments

Keep in mind markets are still open, all be it the “holiday season”.

We don’t generally expect to see fireworks during the coming week, or the following week for that matter but…….it doesn’t hurt to stay tuned as these days – you never really know.

To “remain vigilant” is a base requirement for shorter term traders, as periods of low volume often generate wider swings in price, and can easily “whipsaw the weak” ( if you know what I mean ). With fewer trades being placed, any “reasonably large trade” can have a much larger effect on price so…..it makes sense to keep an eye on things.

We’ve got 2013 winding down – wow. 2013 – over and done with yes!

On a personal level I can say with certainty – I won’t miss it.

Since the “dawn of the Internet” I’ve found solace in ( and perhaps coined ) an analogy that more or less describes/outlines/ defines the way I’ve lived my entire life.

“I don’t have a back button”.

Like a web browser, or perhaps an “edit function” in one of the programs we all use daily (there for you at the push of a button). A simple click to erase your mistakes……a wonderful opportunity to just……”go back”.

I don’t believe in that.

I’ve made mistakes sure…..big ones….huge ones, no…”massive ones” but………I don’t really look at them as “mistakes”. I dont’ look back  – I don’t look back for a second no…I move forward. I move towards the future.

I “am” the future as……if  you don’t believe in yourself then – what’s the f#%king point?

We all make decisions, that in turn lead to more decisions, and so on, and so on……..

How could we be expected to get “every single one” right?

Go ahead and make mistakes. Learn from them….and move on.

Last time I looked…I think they call it “life” no?

Have fun……and make a point of it.

Have fun!

The Future Economy Explained – Video

Forex Kong 16 Comments

The following video ( and series of videos should you wish to view all of them ) provides some of the most straight forward and easy to understand explanation of The Federal Reserve, the history of fiat money and Central Banking ,as well ideas of what the future may hold – with respect to the outcome of this current financial “experiment”.

These are some extremely well-respected gentleman talking ( many have beards ) including one of our favorites Dr. Paul Roberts, and the material is extremely easy to understand.

I recommend that “anyone” who still may have questions about some of the basics, or still may be struggling to wrap their heads around some of this  – Watch these videos.

I wanted to include them in the material available here at Forex Kong as the information is provided in such a straight forward manner.Perhaps plan to bookmark and come back throughout the week as each video is about an hour-long.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nB8GmcRV_yg]