Month: May 2014

Trade Like The Big Boys – Here's How

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Horrible data out of Japan last night has indeed “capped” the recent move higher, but more importantly has “put a stop to further easing” til at least October, if not til early 2015!

The weakened Yen has pushed inflation higher as import costs on food and energy continue to rise. This is absolutely fantastic news for us , as it removes “yet another Central Bank” ( if indeed the Fed has stepped back at all – which I really don’t believe they have ) and opens the window for some  “serious” medium term planning.

No BOJ printing til maybe even 2015? Fed looking to continue tapering? ECB more or less caught like a deer in the headlights? Hello! Contraction time is coming!

Trade wise, this could be a real break as we all know what it feels like “week after week” with markets hanging on every single word from Central Banks. More easing ? Less easing? Ping pong, ping-pong. The message is starting to come clear that the “easy money” is most certainly going to slow.

Strength in JPY has slowing been building since the beginning of the year, as the big boys quietly build for the entire first five months of 2014. Wow.

Yen_2014_Forex_Kong

Yen_2014_Forex_Kong

The market has been an absolute grind the first half of 2014 – and for very good reason. When major shifts in monetary policy loom in the “not so distant future” major market players start making “major market moves”. This takes time. A lot of time. So much time that you’d have to imagine a plan being put in place back in January and “only now” getting closer to a time to see it realized.

Has the “extended down period” in Gold been any different? Absolutely not. Big boys getting into position for the turn. Takes months. Many months, as they can’t move price “to fast” in that they essentially move prices “against themselves” with plans to buy in such quantity that when the time “finally comes” they are “so loaded” it rains money for the following year. This is how it’s done.

When I say patience is required. I don’t mean sitting on your ass waiting for something to happen. I mean working your ass off getting into position “before” something happens.

This is how it’s done. Come check us out at the Members Site…you might actually learn something.  www.forexkong.net

Buy EUR! – Don't Ask Just Buy

Forex Kong 10 Comments

No. Don’t do that – or at least not like it’s gonna be the “get rich trade of your life”. I’ll tell you when to pull the trigger.

I’ve thrown this out there to prove a point, as I imagine I’m the only voice out there suggesting something so insane. Insane is it?

I look across the financial blogosphere and financial news sites today, and all I see is a continuous stream of “bearish Euro” “time to sell EUR” “”Euro to tumble past all support” blah blah blah.blah blah….

As I am completely devoid of emotion, I can’t hate the Euro any “more or less” than I hate or love any paper currency ( all paper currencies being tiny pieces of toilet paper with fancy graphics and holograms ) as the “sell spiel” currently running in main stream media would have you thinking “The Euro” is about to run itself directly off a cliff.

How much do you want to bet “Dear ol Kong” this thing is going nowhere but UP UP UP!

Let’s just let it sit. Let’s let this “glaring example” drive home the point – even harder.

The retail forex/investment landscape works from every possible angle to rid you of your hard-earned dollars as fast as humanly possible ( computers do most of it so….that “is” faster than humanly possible ) with the media only seconds behind.

I challenge you to watch the EURO in coming days and put me to the test.

Clinging to your T.V set, you still can’t quite accept the fact that you are being lied to every single minute of every single day.

Oh Kong I pray you are mistaken!!!

 

 

You Doubt Everything – So Tread Lightly

Forex Kong 3 Comments

You doubt everything right now.

Day to-day you question everything. The endless sea of “arrows pointing this way” or “arrows pointing that way”, the bullish argument or in turn, the bearish. Everyone’s got “a reason for this ” and a “reason for that” all with a million bullet points and charts to equally support “either view”.

You know nothing.

I know nothing, short of the fact that “when in question” – one should always tread lightly.

Are you treading lightly?

Predicting the future is a fool’s game, let alone putting one’s faith in “someone else’s prediction”…I mean seriously.

Ice skating as a kid…..we’d “at least” take a stick and give the lake “a couple of pokes” before moving out the nets. Even at that, once in while we’d hear that ice make a big “craaaack” and see a big fat “white line” materialize in an instant beneath our feet. Needless to say, we grabbed our shit and high tailed it back to shore in a hurry.

It’s frustrating I know, but it is what it is…..and if you consider “skating on thin ice” playing any part in your current trading plan well………it goes without saying….you’re gambling not trading.

You may enjoy the sensation of crisp cool air blowing ‘cross your face, or the freedom of “moving fast” over the smooth shiny surface but if you really want to play ….you’ve still got to lace up those skates, put on that long underwear, and on occasion – go hunting for that puck lost deep in the mounds of snow.

Obviously it’s not easy. But didn’t your dad ever tell you that “nothing worth while” is easy? I thought it was common knowledge.

You doubt everything today. You doubt yourself. You doubt the silly decisions you’ve made based on “what other people” have suggested, and you question if you’ve even got the stones to do this at all.

Tread lightly. Start making decisions for yourself, and don’t let this get the best of you.

A little scare once in a while is fine – but hypothermia is a whole different story.

 

 

Daily Forex Strategy – May 23, 2014

Forex Kong 4 Comments

” A snippet from the Members Site”.

We’ve stayed away from making any “big decisions” with regards to the U.S Dollar and for very good reason. Getting short the commodity currencies vs USD has been fine ( as these currencies have been falling against most ) but with respect to the EU related currencies – no trade has been “the best trade” over the past few days, as USD continues to “grind away” with little discernible direction.

As of tonight / this morning USD will have worked its way up to the 200 Day Moving Average ( on a daily time frame ) and looks poised to finally show us its “cruel intentions”.

The Japanese Yen is also “flirting” with its 200 Day as U.S equities continue to stretch / challenge the “near term highs” seen only days ago.

Talk about an inflection point.

As much as I understand that so many of you have “grown a custom” to seeing the various scenarios “outlined” in charts and “speculative commentary” across the various financial blogs – hunches are hunches and “speculation” has never really done much for my trading.

At this point it seems fairly obvious to me that the Japanese Yen has indeed fueled the majority of this “last leg up in risk” and NOT AS MUCH USD in that….we know the money printing in the U.S has provided dollars for a mirad of reasons / uses to support the current ponzi scheme – but no one can say for certain “where” the money has gone or “how” its been utilized by the Fed and major players.

As “ass backwards” as it may sound, it makes some sense to me that we see USD fall “along side” U.S Equities for the next leg down, as money flows back into JPY FIRST.

USD to fall, as commodity currencies fall “harder” with JPY the primary beneficary and the EU currencies also “rising” as risk comes off is scenario #1.  Nuts eh?

On the completely other end of the spectrum, can one imagine a scenario here where “risk on prevails” and we see USD rise along with Equities, as JPY gets pounded again with the EU related currencies dropping like stones? It seem’s far less likely to me but again…..you can see why “speculation” generally doesn’t do much for my trading.

Bottom line is – you can “think” about these things but “trading off them” is a fools game, and the “heart and soul” of the many bloggers and analysts out there searching for eyeballs in a sea of speculation. I continue to trade “what’s in front of me” and move in one direction “with conviction” until proven otherwise, with the worst case scenario being “I’m totally wrong” and just switch directions a trade later. No foul. No loss. Allowing markets to “do what they will do” then quietly following along.

This is no time for speculation. This is no time for “big bets”. All will be revealed in very short order, so we learn to exercise patience and continue to trade with caution. All the “arrows in the world” won’t change which direction things move tomorrow, as it’s pointless to even consider these “projections” as having any edge in todays “more than manipulated markets”.

Armchair analysts and financial bloggers can kindly take their “bags full of arrows” and shove them where the sun……( you know what  mean ) as it “all amounts to nothing” if you’re not trading it properly.

So today we wait.

Speculation is speculation. Trading is trading.

You want to be a speculator or a trader?

I’ve never really heard of anyone “making any money” contemplating the future, where as “trading the present” has worked out pretty well thus far.

More at www.forexkong.net

Remember To Laugh – It's Only A Trade

Forex Kong Got something to say?

I catch myself once in a while too so….you are not alone.

Considering that 95% of traders fail, its difficult at times to keep a positive attitude. I understand that better than anyone.

Having already gone through the “trials and tribulations” of learning how this all fits together, I know “full well” that it’s hard….not just hard, but damn near impossible when you are just starting out.

Don’t lose sight of yourself as….it’s only a trade. You have to remember to laugh.

I remember a time back when I was trading options, struggling with a relationship with a “wicked and evil girl” and incarcerated in Colombia!

Days later I came home to a “world full of hurt” as markets tanked, my stitches didn’t take, and my heart lay smashed on the cold tile floor. I’d lost more than I care to remember, but still managed to pull myself together and live to to trade another day.

How?

I laughed ( I cried too ).

I learned.

Then I laughed a little more.

You can’t let this get the best of you, and you can’t lose sight of the fact that it’s only a trade. You’ve really no control over it no matter what happens so….all you can really do is protect yourself, and do “everything else you can” to  remain positive. Laugh once in a while! Go see a movie! Go pet a dog!

There are a million and one reasons to laugh these days as the world “outside of trading” is more comical than ever! Trading is trading but it’s certainly not “everything”.

Remember to laugh, and do what you can to put this all in perspective. It’s only a trade. You “should” live so….you might as well have a smile on your face.

P.S – I just burnt the shit out of a roast in the oven while writing this so……..what do you think I’m gonna do about it??

I’m laughing my ass off!

Pushing people to absolute extremes here, markets continue to pull you apart. Buyers are losers, sellers are losers, and the entire thing feels like it’s just one big joke!

Laugh about it people! Your’e gonne feel alot better!

Check us out in “real time” over at the Members site: www.forexkong.net . Lots of laughter going on over there.

 

 

 

China Data – 5th Straight Month Contraction

Forex Kong 5 Comments

How long do you really think this can go on?

If you ask me…… I’d  pretty much say “today is the day”!

China PMI data overnight comes in “under 50” yet again, marking the 5th straight month of contracted growth, Japan is in shambles, The EU Zone toast, and The United States continues to just keep “racking  up the credit card”.

CNBC HEADLINES ARE FLAT OUT 100% FALSE! CHINA NUMBER IS -NEG NOT A POSITIVE!

Broken record yes, but as I’ve stated so many times in the past – If there was something “positive” to talk about then I would! From an investor’s perspective if the lights aren’t clearly “flashing red” then I’d put into question what kind of an investor you are.

The insider selling and “distribution” that has taken place over the past 6 months would have it that “pretty darn soon” the big boys will have everything in place to “drop this thing like a rock”.

Even the commodity currencies have now started to tank, and the Japanese Yen ( the big safe haven / repatriation play ) has locked in a very solid and confirmed UPTREND.

I’m adding to my short SPY / U.S Equities as we speak.

 

Morning Ramp – Robots Only Buyers

Forex Kong 2 Comments

I’m always amazed at the general “market enthusiasm” most people have during the opening hours of trading.

Myself included ( as I’m a very early riser and absolutely love my quiet time in the “a.m”) I to awaken with a certain amount of excitement and enthusiasm anticipating what the day might bring, but always tempered with good dose of realism.

Ahh the psychology of it all.

“Hey look at that!” Markets are up, up , up here this morning! Complete and total bliss, with absolutely no vision of the “actual reality” that “No….actually markets are lower than they where yesterday, and yesterday is far lower than the same day a week ago!”

( now in robotic tone )

Does not compute. T.V says markets surging higher. Must call broker. Can’t get left behind. T.V says markets higher.

The “morning ramp” and the media blitz behind it goes down as one of the most “telegraphed human brainwashing” of our time, as it continues to play out –  day, after day, after day.

When markets are lower than they where yesterday, and in turn much lower than they where a week ago…..isn’t that called a trend?

Oh ooops…..it’s a “down trend” so we best ignore that.

Let’s just eat our scones, sip our coffee and watch the funny people jumping around shouting “buy! buy! buy! “Hey look at that one honey! He’s wearing a funny tie!”

Gold, Bonds, Stocks – Everything Gets Pounded

Forex Kong Got something to say?

For most – this market makes absolutely no sense.

For forex traders we’ve been given a “tiny little gift” here as of yesterday with The Australian Dollar ( AUD ) finally taking out the last of the short-term bulls, rolling over “hard” – and rewarding our patience and fundamental approach.

This before “global appetite for risk” takes a total nose dive, all the while SP 500 “still” clinging to the highs. I’m up 652 pips in just the last few days alone…and the SP500 hasn’t even budged……..yet.

Gold and U.S Treasuries next to “take it on the chin” in an environment where many must be asking “how can all these things move lower at once”?? Where “is” the safety play if gold, bonds, stocks and “everything” head for the basement?

Cash. That’s where.

The “endless slosh” of Japanese Yen as well American Dollars used to “buy all this crap” is now finding its way “back into bank accounts” as safety is sought.

If you’ve no interest / knowledge of foreign exchange then I can fully understand the confusion but….consider something so basic, so rudimentary, so straight forward as this:

Stocks are purchased with cash, gold is purchased with cash, bonds are purchased with cash!

It’s the “cash” that dictates the value of these assets! Not the other way around!

When I have someone ask me “Kong – gold is going lower, what does that mean for the U.S Dollar?” or “Are bonds “sniffing out” a low in USD?

It’s the other way around!

As the largest, most liquid, most widely traded market on the planet it’s the “currency market” that dictates movement in all others “below” it, so when you see “risk related currencies” being sold, and “safe haven currencies” being bought – there it is.

It’s the largest piece of the puzzle and for the most part – the least understood.

You’ve got a fantastic opportunity here – to add something new to your toolbox. Watch how this unfolds and look to consider currency movement as a “major leading indicator” ( if not “the” leading indicator ) when trading in other markets / assets.

We’re in a wonderful position here with active trades well in profit before the fireworks really even get started. I invite “any and all” to have a poke around the Members Site and consider adding “forex” to the list of things you follow / track on a day to day basis.

 

Japan Is Broken – Soon You Will Be Too

Forex Kong 16 Comments

We’ve been waiting for this for a considerable amount of time, and our patience will now be rewarded.

The Japanese Stock Market Index “The Nikkei” has now breached our “waterfall zone” dropping an additional -200 points here overnight in a surprising ( only in that it’s happened on Sunday ) move lower, this early in the week.

The flow of news headlines won’t make a single difference in the world ( depending on what they look to as the cause ) in that, this has been slowly developing over such an extended period…it was only a matter of time before she cracked.

It takes the big players “weeks and months” to move such large amounts of money “in or out”  of position, and the past few weeks have had “distribution” written all over them. Distribution is a market dynamic where over time, large players continue to “quietly sell” to retail as they prepare to “hit the exits” with profits in hand. You certainly don’t want to be the last one holding the bag looking to “buy the dip” once the big boys make the move.

You doubt me? Consider the entire past 5 months as purely “distribution” and now watch how quickly these “gains” are wiped from your portfolio. Weeks and even months of trading “evaporate” in a matter of days.

You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink well…..again I am absolutely stunned that so-called “traders” continue to push the “green button” in the face of something so incredibly obvious.

I guess you need to lose 30-40% of your gains to finally get it.

Best of luck with everything “bullish” here this week and in the months to come. Gorillas are already nearly 100% in position and already in profit pretty much across the board – still just waiting on the final nail ( USD ) to make up its freakin mind so we can jump on that train too.

Long JPY is the way to go, with the commods continued weakness right on cue. SPY and QQQ shorts from “days” ago still performing well and a miriad of trades lining up in USD. More at the members site: www.forexkong.net