So it all comes down to Trump’s speech tonight….as market participant stand like fat deer in the headlights..
Gold still the same. EUR/USD up nicely but still more or less the same, and the beast of all beasts NUGT takes the world for a diving lesson. Boom…talk about a stop run. These things don’t happen unless the big boys are making their moves. They can push price a couple bucks in a couple of hours without batting an eye….all the while your piddly 200 shares with a .50 cent stop get’s gobbled up. Multiply that by a couple 100,000 ( or million ) and you start to better understand just how difficult it is to “trade” with a “pea shooter”…when those on the other side of your trade carry billion dollar bazookas.
You really don’t have much of a chance.
I find it incredibly ironic that the Trumpster is calling for some 54 billion more spending on Defence, and 1 Trillion on infrastructure when the country is already 100% flat busted / broke / bankrupt. As suggested by a few of the brightest minds in the comment section here at Kong – sounds like the ol debt ceiling with just get raised, then raised again…then again. Where does the money come from?
Sounds like more money printing to me..but I thought the economy is expanding and there is now talk of the rate hike cycle beginning? Not.
QE will happen in ‘Merica again.
The printing presses can never stop printing.
I used to go on and on about it, but with The Fed printing confetti each and everyday for the past 8 years – it didn’t really matter. The United States is 100% totally broke / Greece style / Flat out busted.
You guys remember that thing called “the debt ceiling”? Well……March 15th – Here we go again…only this time it’s different.
March 15th is the day that the “debt ceiling holiday” that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015 expires.
The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion. It will then be law. It will be a hard stop. The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash. The U.S is burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate.
By summer, they will be out of cash. Totally out of cash.
The holiday is over.
You think I’m joking about this….you don’t take this seriously, and you bury your head in the sand – I won’t be very happy.
Gold up = Fear = USD and U.S Stocks down HARD.
You gotta love it.
Thousands of visitors per day and I don’t get a single comment / opinion / view on the recent “Trump and the U.S Dollar” post. Not a single one. All the while dorks with nothing better to do, actually take the time to comment / call me out – insinuating that I’m NOT in Cabo ( actually now at the all inclusive Barcelo in San Jose Del Cabo ) and that for whatever reason…..I’m lying about it. Again you gotta love it.
Every red blooded American has a view on Trump ( good or bad ) as I see them here…flocking to the televisions like bands of hypno-rats…arguing about the colour of his tie and wether or not Melania has fake breasts. Deep man. Deep.
I find it absolutely fascinating that people who likely consider themselves pretty damn smart, have absolutely no clue how the value of the world’s most widely held / reserve currency might affect their investments / lives / future. No clue.
What’s that Kong? You bashing my U.S Dollar? Fork you dude….that’s ‘Merica you talkin ’bout! My American Dollar! Mine ya’ll! Mine!
Go stuff yourself. This is a currency trading blog people. Check yer ego’s and hand guns at the door please.
In any case….perhaps some casual reading over the weekend.
I am “officially” on holidays.
Gold is up another 15 Dollars overnight so……one can only assume you’ve missed that train.
Like I’ve always said….I’d much rather be early than late, as chasing trades can make your head spin.
The future is looking very bright for gold as “global uncertainty” escalates and “global appetite for risk” wanes. Unfortunately you just can’t have it both ways…unless of course you decide to pick up gold as a hedge ( meaning you purchase an asset that is set to move higher while holding on to assets moving lower ) and hang on to those dividend payers during the long and arduous drawdown coming soon to a theatre near you. I did this once.
I will never do it again.
Kong Is Golden
As a relatively young trader / investor type…I can’t bear the thought of having my money tied up so tight I can’t breathe. Can’t move. Can’t sleep or eat just watching the value of my assets going down, down, down, down further….then down some more. I think we all know this feeling to a certain degree. It can certainly make sense for people a tad older than I as moving theses assets around / pulling apart portfolios and rebuilding again is a bit of a pain but….at least in my view – nothing compared to 3 straight down days -300 on Dow……trapped like a rat, then contemplation of either selling at a loss or holding on for an even larger loss.
Fear and greed baby…..that’s all there is too it. Ride that train in either direction…just don’t miss your stop.
All current trades looking golden. EUR right on. USD falling. Gold on the move.
Don’t say I didn’t give you 5 days advance warning…and a string of excellent trade suggestions.
In the infamous works of Connor McGregor – It’s clearly red panty’s night tonight!
Kong Celebrates A Little Early
I don’t know how many time I’ll have to reiterate.
Small orders…over time……so simple if you can just dump your psychological baggage.
What is the matter with you? Is it not possible to teach an old dog new tricks?
Kong Buys SECOND LOT – EUR/USD at 1.0540 …holds NUGT ( wishing I had an addition million dollars to buy more here at 11.00??? ) If you do so now…..you clearly owe me a commission.
Im out….humanity a very curious thing.
How can it be that a simple system of numbers continues to “defy logic and understanding” – considering it’s been around for like….100 years?
Let’s ask ourselves a few very simple questions. On a fundamental level…
What do you think would benefit the Trump presidency / program more? A strong U.S Dollar or a weak U.S Dollar? And why? ______________ (comment please).
Would you say that the world at large currently views the Trump train as a stable and positive contributor to international trade and global economic development…or as a negative? ___________ (comment please).
In the advent of some “international conflict” involving The U.S, Russia, China, Japan and/or any country in Europe would you expect this to be a positive or a negative for USD? ___________ (comment please).
What do you think the probability is of further escalation of conflict between The U.S , Russia , China , Japan , Korea , ISIS etc? _____________ (comment please).
Throwing around a bit of “geo political analysis” is always great, as it can help provide a viewpoint that isn’t centered on one’s own “local situation” not to mention a break from the math and charts.
Remember…fear and greed are what moves human beings to do the crazy things they do so…. keep this in mind while formulating your answers.
I’ll tell you what I’m doing.
Wait……let me show you.
Kong heading for The Arch in Cabo
Dollar fading……Eur solid…..Gold just took a $10 buck “rinse” on the weak handed.
I’m outta here for the day.
One of the fantastic things about trading forex is that it trades 24 hours a day.
You can have your charts and indicators running ( mine rings a bell when hit ) and choose to place a trade anytime of the day or night. The Japanese Nikkei is in full effect right now as it’s 2:10 p.m in Japan.
I’m in Mexico. You are in Poland. Dorothy is in Kansas. My Dad is in Canada. Who gives a rat’s ass where you are..Boom!
Kong buys EUR/USD at 1.0580. Right here……right now.
EUR/USD On A Japanese Afternoon
You’re going to want to buy EUR before Tuesday.
This trade fits into the exact same framework we have been working with…with respect to The U.S Dollar taking a very large nose dive – very, very soon. You can see in the chart below that EUR/USD has now put in an absolutely “classic swing low” right at the 50 day moving average…after completing only the first daily cycle of this new “intermediate cycle”. This suggests that we’ve got several more daily cycles to go ( lasting somewhere between 30-35 days each) before this upswing completes.
I would imagine the 200 day moving average ( marked in red ) should be the next target. That’s some 350 – 400 pips!
Buy EUR Before Tues Afternoon
These correlations with The Euro, USD and Gold are batting near 100% right now….as you can’t have The Euro rise without USD moving decidedly lower. The same thing goes for Gold, and if you really want to nail this…feel free to get long The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) as well. Yen chart looks exactly the same as EURO.
So…only one more asset class to consider here right? U.S Equities.
I can’t stand the stock market right now, as it’s continued rise goes against just about every fundamental principle I can drum up. There are too many indicators and factors to list – all suggesting this thing tops out soon…or at the very least – makes a serious correction. The stock market is cyclical and there is not a single thing “any acting president” can do to change that.
Trump has certainly “empowered the common man” with the talk of bringing jobs back, and I can certainly appreciate that but…..it won’t last. Unfortunately for stock buyers – foreign exchange leads the way and the message is painfully clear.
This thing needs a complete and total reset before some incredible turn around in the U.S economy will be realized.
Wash rinse repeat people. You know this. Has it ever been any different?