It’s not a contest, but a serious question. Is anybody “else” making any money today?
I know. You’re petrified of coming to the “dark side”, as getting short “risk” is akin to casting spells and sacrificing small animals but hopefully…..something can still be learned from this. Markets behave very differently when the driving factor is “fear” and not “greed”. The moves are faster, the choices more difficult, but in most cases the rewards are also “unearthly”.
As suggested some days ago…indeed The U.S Dollar has hit the skids and the vast number of “risk averse” trades are well in profit. My plan was in effect last Tuesday.
A solid “Dow down -500 points” over coming days would have me back on a beach and shouldn’t even take “too big a bite” out of you Bulls so in all……everyone can win as long as you are on the right side of the trade at any given time.
The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) is up across the board with both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY behaving as expected. USD/JPY continues lower, with EUR and GBP both making gains. It’s a full sweep here.
Even JNUG hanging in profit – however slight.
It’s more of a holistic approach, having these correlations burned into the back of skull like a cerebral tattoo. When one goes…..they all go. Even The Nikkei has broken support as foreseen many, many days ago.
How far we can go here is still anyone’s guess, as it’s not as much the “specific” levels I look at ( as I draw my lines of support and resistance with my Crayola crayon and not my laser beam ) but more so the combination of “price and time”.
Baring any significant news ( good news? – I highly doubt that ) I would expect to hang in here through the week, and likely book profits quickly in these times of continued Central Bank intervention, behind the curtains of shenanigans.
Bang on the money.
I bought JNUG at 6.80 yesterday afternoon, as well shorted USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I took long positions in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD first thing this morning.
How can anyone imagine the meeting of Trump and Chinas President Xi being anything less than a total disaster?
April 11th I “believe” to be a full moon ( what you didn’t check your lunar cycles either? ) – I am very comfortable with these positions through the weekend and beyond.
It’s celebration time here so…..have a good one y’all.
If you don’t have a plan. You’ll never succeed at this.
Watching the T.V or looking for a quick tip in some bullshit newsletter is exactly that – bullshit. You might catch one here or there….but without a well thought out plan “days n’ days” ahead of time – you’re hooped.
Recall some days ago I suggested that The U.S Dollar “might” roll over early ( along side U.S stocks and risk appetite in general ) providing for the next fantastic trading opportunity? I think I gave it 6-8 days max.
So here we are. Some 6 days later and whatever “rally” we may have expected in “risk” has really yet to materialize. And of course, Thursdays are “data days” where Wall St. usually makes some of it’s larger moves so…..the timing is exactly right.
The plan is simple.
If USD rolls over and puts in a “swing high” – I’m shorting risk via the following currency pairs:
- Short: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and even CAD/JPY
- Long: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
- Then some form of play on Gold via any number of instruments.
If The U.S Dollar does not roll over/ swing high Thursday. I will “entertain” long ideas, but likely wait until Monday for entry.
So there it is. This is what the pro’s are doing “if indeed” risk comes off….and if not? I’ll look to jump on board for a few little trades in Kool-aide.
I hear it’s all the rage these days.
As most of you already know, I follow The Japanese Nikkei more closely than American Markets as its my firm belief that we will see larger scale moves reflected their first.
The Nikkei has been trading completely flat for a whopping 16 weeks now ( 4 months flat as a pancake ) at levels that are starting to suggest that “a lower high has already been made” on a larger scale time frame.
Let me show you.
Here is the “weekly” chart of The Nikkei clearly showing the 16 weeks of flat/range trading which, unto itself isn’t really that big a deal.
Nikkei Trading Flat For Weeks
Now if we “zoom out” even further things start to look a bit more interesting as we start to put this “congestion zone” into perspective.
Here is the “monthly” chart of The Nikkei.
Nikkei Monthly Chart
It’s my feelings that The Nikkei actually topped “mid 2015” and that we’ve spent the entire last year and a half in “distribution mode” – with respect to the continued pump in U.S Equity prices. Japan’s stock market has been unable to share in the Kool-aide drinking, as cheaply printed Yen has flooded over to America, been converted to USD and used to buy stocks.
This is why you see the incredible correlation with U.S stocks and the currency pair USD/JPY ( bet you where wondering about that! ) as the pair rises when stocks are purchased and falls as stocks are sold.
I don’t see The Nikkei reaching for new highs but rather (and more likely) breaking thru support and moving along to create a very large / significant “lower high” on a monthly time frame. Things could get quite ugly from there.
This does not bode well for the “risk on trade”.
This “so called rally” is weak at best. Crawling out of the daily cycle low like a turtle on prozac – this thing is going nowhere fast, lending further to the proposed theory…we may not even see a “higher high” before this rolls into the larger expected correction.
As suggested some weeks ago – what’s the point? why bother looking for further upside as opposed to just plotting / scheming for the inevitable fall. Get your ducks in a line for some short plays as well continue taking whatever profits you have.
An old high school girlfriend of mine had a grandpa. This guy was sharp as a tack.You just knew it the second you met him. Words rolled off his tongue, math was a joke. He could sing / play the piano and was outright hilarious on almost every occasion that we met.
You know what he owed it to? His secret? His “super power”?
Cross word puzzles. Yup……good old run of the mill crossword puzzles.
When you’ve got a trade environment such as this ( struggling to move higher, yet refusing to go down ) go find something to learn! You’ve got the time! The charts / stocks and currencies aren’t going anywhere. Everything will “be there” when you get back.
Japanese candle sticks for one…..go study Elliot Wave Theory. Take a crack at Gann’s Studies or “get wild” and go have a look at Lunar Trading and the connections with human sentiment. Pull up some charts and start throwing new indicators on them / evaluate what they can or can’t do for your trading. Go read a report…..or pick up a musical instrument for Petes sake! Do something else!
This stuff will drive you bat sh#t crazy if you let it. Trust me…..I know. I have trouble sitting in a room with an overhead fan ( as I tend to look for cycles / counts in the rotation) and god help me if there might be a tap dripping, or a dishwasher running at the same time. I start pitting the rhythms against each other looking for patterns etc….its nuts.
Sitting on the sidelines is healthy as….I do far more “observing” than I actually do trading these days – and it pays off big time.
Get away from the computer more, and you will see your trading improve – I guarantee it.
I too will be taking part….but of course – in my own “creative way”. Even at that “very cautiously”.
The U.S Dollar as well U.S Equities will now put in the long-awaited “swing low” ( if you don’t know what that is yet….please research swing trading ) so for those of you interested in pressing the long side in stocks – now would be your time. I have no individual stock suggestions as the vast majority are so ridiculously bloated, with valuations that ( to me at least ) make very little sense but….you can’t knock “retail euphoria”.
The larger question at hand begs….
Will the next leg in “risk” reach for higher highs before hitting the skids? Or……will we fall short / put in a “lower high” and roll on over for the larger scale “plunge” expected in coming months?
The current geo-political landscape isn’t exactly what I would call “stable” but how many times has that been the case where U.S Equities simply shrug it off…and the funny money just keeps flowing.
I’m immune to earthly headline / media disease and rely only on my “inter-dimensional time shifting machine” to guide me. I see retail money……must get retail money…must have MORE RETAIL MONEY! So……there it is in a nutshell.
Buyers beware. Stay tight. Remain vigilant. But feel free to jump out on the playing field and take a kick at the can.
What’s the worst that can happen?
The 3x leveraged ETF’s have just not performed during this last waterfall in USD so I’m booking out of NUGT here at 9.86
The way things are setting up we will get another fantastic buying opportunity once The U.S Dollar gets its inevitable bounce out-of-the-way here in the next few days. Once USD puts in a daily cycle low….we can really only expect about 6-8 days UP before she rolls over for another devastating leg down.
I am sitting 100% cash as of this moment. Not a single penny on the table.
Can you imagine how good that feels?
Ugly in Japan right now ( Nikkei now down -323 ) ….so you can likely look for a pretty tough open there in ‘Merica tomorrow morning. Yes that’s right…..Japan’s stock market opens while most of you are still “drinkin buds ‘n throwin horseshoes” out back yer mamma’s trailer. Sunday night baby!
Sunday night is when “we” start putting in the work.
The U.S Dollar continues to get absolutely demolished on the back of Trump’s “healthcare beat down”. You get it right? Markets are recognizing very quickly that poor Mr. Trump isn’t gonna get jack shit done in Washington ( as this was his first real attempt ) and that future tax cuts / infrastructure spending and all the other horse shit promised ( no fault to the Donald on that though…. ) will inevitably fail. Not gonna happen. Impossible. So…….
QE5 is coming to America. Sooner than you think, and it doesn’t have a single thing to do with “who” sits at the helm.
USD and “risk trade” works like this:
The U.S Dollar is incredibly late putting in a “daily cycle low” and will likely do so very soon. Not to say we don’t get further “waterfall action” first but….I’m actually more interested in “the next leg down”.
USD Failed Daily Cycle
Now that we have what we called a “failed daily cycle” we can count on the next one doing the same ( as suggested months ago ) so……you wait for a daily swing low – then max 6-8 days bounce ( in this case likely less ) for re – entry on the next full daily cycle expecting it to go EVEN LOWER.
This will coincide with all the same currency correlations I’ve hammered you with for years now, so keep your eye on JPY as well EUR and AUD for some “massive trades” coming soon.
Gold is…..well gold so……fear = gold up and we’ve got “just a wee bit of that” going on now no?
By Megan Davies and Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Trump Trade could start looking more like a Trump Tantrum if the new U.S. administration’s healthcare bill stalls in Congress, prompting worries on Wall Street about tax cuts and other measures aimed at promoting economic growth.
Investors are dialing back hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump will swiftly enact his agenda, with a Thursday vote on a healthcare bill a litmus test which could give stock investors another reason to sell.
“If the vote doesn’t pass, or is postponed, it will cast a lot of doubt on the Trump trades,” said the influential bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive at DoubleLine Capital.
U.S. stocks rallied after the November presidential election, with the posting a string of record highs up to earlier this month, on bets that the pro-growth Trump agenda would be quickly pushed by a Republican Party with majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Investors extrapolated that a stalling bill could mean uphill battles for other Trump proposals. Trump and Republican congressional leaders appeared to be losing the battle to get enough support to pass it.
Any hint of further trouble for Trump’s agenda, especially his proposed tax cut, could precipitate a stock market correction, said Byron Wien, veteran investor and vice chairman of Blackstone (NYSE:) Advisory Partners.
I expect markets to continue lower well into next week, as those who’ve not yet sold “freak out” at the last minute…then sell into the waterfall. Sound familiar? Stocks will bounce sure…so if you are holding now…you likely lose a few nights sleep but “its too late to sell now”.
How many days / weeks ago did I suggest to “raise cash” and look for another great entry opportunity?
Read the rest here.