I’ve sat out a few days and missed some pretty decent action in USD – as the slide continues.
This will continue for much longer, so I’m going to take a day er two here to let it breathe – then jump back in on the short side. The U.S Dollar is attempting to find a bottom, not only in an immediate sense ( having absolutely no luck ) but more so in an “intermediate / medium term” sense. Let me explain…
When you see a continued pattern of “lower lows and lower highs” on a daily chart / time frame you’ve got to understand….this is no small time trend. We are talking about weeks and week of a given asset falling lower, then lower than the previous low, then lower than “that” low until finally a much larger “intermediate cycle” completes. You dig?
The U.S Dollar will bounce here and likely bring in a large number of traders assuming this is a bottom. This IS NOT even close. Look for a decent bounce here on the 1H as a great place to re enter short.
That’s all I’ve got for today folks as I am busy busy with “yet another venture” so…watch for the bounce here in “risk in general” and get your levels checked/locked and loaded on all correlating pairs – set for another round of “short use trades”.
Let’s put this in perspective first.
You live in a tiny “tiny” bubble. You see the world through the broken lens of your local media, and can’t imagine a world where “fake news” actually exists. Wait…..you actually believe the news on your local news channel?
Aside from the human interest stories ( often highlighting people with their dogs…or more often than not – people “crying the blues” about how hard they have it ) your local news serves only as a simple extension of the “administration” and the message you are “required to view” – short of actually developing opinions/ideas of your own.
Television shepherds to living room sheep.
Face it. You have absolutely no clue what is going on, short of tuning in each night with your Cheetos and Budweiser in hand…having the local “news gal” spew crap ’til you finally switch to the game.
The world is moving much faster than you can imagine. Currencies tell all – T.V’s suck.
Trade wise…..hmmm…….an interesting junction although in all – really not that interesting.
Commodities “in general” are up against a bit of resistance here so – I could suggest a few things.
Commodities At Resistance
- Take profits in Gold as it’s been a hoot ( not to say the long term play is 100% totally still in play ).
- Take stock of the current geo political situation and ask yourself..truly…..is this really the time to go “all in” on the long side? Don’t be a dumb ass.
The powers that be aren’t quite ready to switch the algo’s from “buy to sell” in a macro sense, but in all honesty….even a run towards the highs doesn’t really amount to much.
Sometimes “no trade” is the best trade…and I’m not suggesting anyone get’s all giddy bout stocks but….we’ve got war! We’ve got war now so…..what does any American President do when his ratings slip past the red line??
You betcha…..time to really the troops! Time to get that ‘Merican blood pumping! We’re going to war! Let’s just start a war!
So obvious….so “cliche”.
I’m in cash….and will stay that way for at least a day er two. You know where I’ll be should anything “significant” actually come to play.
Simply said – I’ve done somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-800 pips and taken “immeasurable profits” here today. There could be more on the table but…I don’t work that way.
I have no back button in my browser.
USD/JPY has now touched the 200SMA “from above” as well AUD/JPY ( my ultimate risk barometer! ) so…I don’t need to squeeze a single penny more.
I am 100% cash ( short of my recent purchase of ACB – Aurora Cannabis ) at 2.78 – Feel free to ask me about that.
Rock n roll my people! Good luck to all!
It’s not a contest, but a serious question. Is anybody “else” making any money today?
I know. You’re petrified of coming to the “dark side”, as getting short “risk” is akin to casting spells and sacrificing small animals but hopefully…..something can still be learned from this. Markets behave very differently when the driving factor is “fear” and not “greed”. The moves are faster, the choices more difficult, but in most cases the rewards are also “unearthly”.
As suggested some days ago…indeed The U.S Dollar has hit the skids and the vast number of “risk averse” trades are well in profit. My plan was in effect last Tuesday.
A solid “Dow down -500 points” over coming days would have me back on a beach and shouldn’t even take “too big a bite” out of you Bulls so in all……everyone can win as long as you are on the right side of the trade at any given time.
The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) is up across the board with both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY behaving as expected. USD/JPY continues lower, with EUR and GBP both making gains. It’s a full sweep here.
Even JNUG hanging in profit – however slight.
It’s more of a holistic approach, having these correlations burned into the back of skull like a cerebral tattoo. When one goes…..they all go. Even The Nikkei has broken support as foreseen many, many days ago.
How far we can go here is still anyone’s guess, as it’s not as much the “specific” levels I look at ( as I draw my lines of support and resistance with my Crayola crayon and not my laser beam ) but more so the combination of “price and time”.
Baring any significant news ( good news? – I highly doubt that ) I would expect to hang in here through the week, and likely book profits quickly in these times of continued Central Bank intervention, behind the curtains of shenanigans.
Bang on the money.
I bought JNUG at 6.80 yesterday afternoon, as well shorted USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I took long positions in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD first thing this morning.
How can anyone imagine the meeting of Trump and Chinas President Xi being anything less than a total disaster?
April 11th I “believe” to be a full moon ( what you didn’t check your lunar cycles either? ) – I am very comfortable with these positions through the weekend and beyond.
It’s celebration time here so…..have a good one y’all.
If you don’t have a plan. You’ll never succeed at this.
Watching the T.V or looking for a quick tip in some bullshit newsletter is exactly that – bullshit. You might catch one here or there….but without a well thought out plan “days n’ days” ahead of time – you’re hooped.
Recall some days ago I suggested that The U.S Dollar “might” roll over early ( along side U.S stocks and risk appetite in general ) providing for the next fantastic trading opportunity? I think I gave it 6-8 days max.
So here we are. Some 6 days later and whatever “rally” we may have expected in “risk” has really yet to materialize. And of course, Thursdays are “data days” where Wall St. usually makes some of it’s larger moves so…..the timing is exactly right.
The plan is simple.
If USD rolls over and puts in a “swing high” – I’m shorting risk via the following currency pairs:
- Short: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and even CAD/JPY
- Long: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
- Then some form of play on Gold via any number of instruments.
If The U.S Dollar does not roll over/ swing high Thursday. I will “entertain” long ideas, but likely wait until Monday for entry.
So there it is. This is what the pro’s are doing “if indeed” risk comes off….and if not? I’ll look to jump on board for a few little trades in Kool-aide.
I hear it’s all the rage these days.
As most of you already know, I follow The Japanese Nikkei more closely than American Markets as its my firm belief that we will see larger scale moves reflected their first.
The Nikkei has been trading completely flat for a whopping 16 weeks now ( 4 months flat as a pancake ) at levels that are starting to suggest that “a lower high has already been made” on a larger scale time frame.
Let me show you.
Here is the “weekly” chart of The Nikkei clearly showing the 16 weeks of flat/range trading which, unto itself isn’t really that big a deal.
Nikkei Trading Flat For Weeks
Now if we “zoom out” even further things start to look a bit more interesting as we start to put this “congestion zone” into perspective.
Here is the “monthly” chart of The Nikkei.
Nikkei Monthly Chart
It’s my feelings that The Nikkei actually topped “mid 2015” and that we’ve spent the entire last year and a half in “distribution mode” – with respect to the continued pump in U.S Equity prices. Japan’s stock market has been unable to share in the Kool-aide drinking, as cheaply printed Yen has flooded over to America, been converted to USD and used to buy stocks.
This is why you see the incredible correlation with U.S stocks and the currency pair USD/JPY ( bet you where wondering about that! ) as the pair rises when stocks are purchased and falls as stocks are sold.
I don’t see The Nikkei reaching for new highs but rather (and more likely) breaking thru support and moving along to create a very large / significant “lower high” on a monthly time frame. Things could get quite ugly from there.
This does not bode well for the “risk on trade”.
This “so called rally” is weak at best. Crawling out of the daily cycle low like a turtle on prozac – this thing is going nowhere fast, lending further to the proposed theory…we may not even see a “higher high” before this rolls into the larger expected correction.
As suggested some weeks ago – what’s the point? why bother looking for further upside as opposed to just plotting / scheming for the inevitable fall. Get your ducks in a line for some short plays as well continue taking whatever profits you have.
An old high school girlfriend of mine had a grandpa. This guy was sharp as a tack.You just knew it the second you met him. Words rolled off his tongue, math was a joke. He could sing / play the piano and was outright hilarious on almost every occasion that we met.
You know what he owed it to? His secret? His “super power”?
Cross word puzzles. Yup……good old run of the mill crossword puzzles.
When you’ve got a trade environment such as this ( struggling to move higher, yet refusing to go down ) go find something to learn! You’ve got the time! The charts / stocks and currencies aren’t going anywhere. Everything will “be there” when you get back.
Japanese candle sticks for one…..go study Elliot Wave Theory. Take a crack at Gann’s Studies or “get wild” and go have a look at Lunar Trading and the connections with human sentiment. Pull up some charts and start throwing new indicators on them / evaluate what they can or can’t do for your trading. Go read a report…..or pick up a musical instrument for Petes sake! Do something else!
This stuff will drive you bat sh#t crazy if you let it. Trust me…..I know. I have trouble sitting in a room with an overhead fan ( as I tend to look for cycles / counts in the rotation) and god help me if there might be a tap dripping, or a dishwasher running at the same time. I start pitting the rhythms against each other looking for patterns etc….its nuts.
Sitting on the sidelines is healthy as….I do far more “observing” than I actually do trading these days – and it pays off big time.
Get away from the computer more, and you will see your trading improve – I guarantee it.
I too will be taking part….but of course – in my own “creative way”. Even at that “very cautiously”.
The U.S Dollar as well U.S Equities will now put in the long-awaited “swing low” ( if you don’t know what that is yet….please research swing trading ) so for those of you interested in pressing the long side in stocks – now would be your time. I have no individual stock suggestions as the vast majority are so ridiculously bloated, with valuations that ( to me at least ) make very little sense but….you can’t knock “retail euphoria”.
The larger question at hand begs….
Will the next leg in “risk” reach for higher highs before hitting the skids? Or……will we fall short / put in a “lower high” and roll on over for the larger scale “plunge” expected in coming months?
The current geo-political landscape isn’t exactly what I would call “stable” but how many times has that been the case where U.S Equities simply shrug it off…and the funny money just keeps flowing.
I’m immune to earthly headline / media disease and rely only on my “inter-dimensional time shifting machine” to guide me. I see retail money……must get retail money…must have MORE RETAIL MONEY! So……there it is in a nutshell.
Buyers beware. Stay tight. Remain vigilant. But feel free to jump out on the playing field and take a kick at the can.
What’s the worst that can happen?