USD Update – Failed Daily Cycle

The U.S Dollar has now breached the low from the previous daily cycle….confirming that this “next cycle” will also manifest as a “left translated cycle” and take the dollar decidedly lower.

But first we bounce.

We bounce higher in a confirmed downtrend so…you don’t go buying this dip in USD bonehead. You wait 4-6 days ( 6 at most I imagine ) and “sell the rip” as we are in a downtrend. Patience is everything when trading, as you’ve got to fight that “urge” to get in there…and be involved every minute of the day.

I can honestly say that these days ( having long since been through the emotional torment experienced when learning ) I spent more like 85% of my time plotting / scheming / observing markets than I do “actually trading”.

Magically…..the less I trade – the more money I make…but don’t confuse this with “investing”. Yes I believe that gold and silver have bottomed, the Euro will rise and USD will fall…JPY will surge and U.S equities will soon take a substantial hit so….

Investing is 100% totally / absolutely / without question OUT!  I trade…..and I trade assets I believe to be in longer term trends. I don’t consider it investing.

Most of the standard correlations are looking pretty good right now ie…USD down has The Euro and commodities ( priced in USD ) moving higher…and The Japanese Yen flying cuz money borrowed some years ago is now repatriating to the place of its origin. Yen up = U.S equities down.

The fact that this thing has traded sideways for this long must have many of you looking at your portfolios and wondering – why haven’t I done so well this past year?

How much “higher” can you really expect anything to climb in the face of a dramatically waning “appetite for risk”.

The planet is completely freaked out about Trump. Good or bad….I have no opinion, but I can tell you this….markets hate uncertainty, and the future looks “more than uncertain” to say the least.

Wouldn’t you agree?

Kong Sells NUGT – 11.65

Im busy trading people. There’s no time to site back and “write”.

I’ve sold NUGT for an additional 16-18% gain asI never leave money on the table.

I identify larger scale macro turns on longer term charts…then I jump down to smaller time frames and trade the shit out of it.

The cycle’s are extended…..USD has been pole axed and needs to bounce ( however slightly ) so….I’m banking coin and planning to wait another 6-8 days for re entry.

 

Yes! Re entry! Gold and Silver have seen the low. Now it’s all about “active trading” so I take my profits and I wait for the next pullback. I will let you know.

 

Pro Traders vs Amateur Traders

Pro Traders vs Amateur Traders

Trade Timing – How I Win So Often

It’s always nice to look back and say “man I really nailed that trade”. But it’s the “knowing why” that makes the big difference between being a decent trader….and a professional trader. Was it just dumb luck? Was it a once in a lifetime “tip” from some guy dressed up as a gorilla?

Or……..

Was it the hours of planning? Months looking back at longer term charts and trends….factoring in “macro global factors”, plotting areas of support and resistance and working thru best practices in money management?

Obviously the latter, with a few “ringers” in there, generally providing me with the information I need to make good decisions and trades.

I look at Japan, and I see a stock market that likely topped out a full year ago…and is just about to put in a “lower high” on long-term monthly chart. This lower high ( once confirmed ) should lead to a large-scale move lower in both Japanese and “global equities” as well the continued demolishing of The U.S Dollar. ( How many days ago did I make this call based in currency market movement?? ( a full week ago while many analysts are just now coming out with the news ).

We have arrived at the turn.

A large-scale turn on long-term charts suggesting that indeed….gold and silver ( now very much confirmed ) will begin a new yearly cycle and that USD will also do the same ( these assets moving in opposite directions ).

Stay sharp people. Book some profits at the very least.

Gold Price and Bond Bubble – 2017

Many gold market analysts focus on irrelevant, but catchy factors, such as mining production or jewelry demand. Others think gold is a simple inflation or stock market hedge. It is a bit strange that the relationship between the bond and gold markets is not commonly examined, given that bond market is much bigger than stock market, while real interest rates are one of the main drivers of the price of gold.

If you have even the most basic understanding of bonds, bond pricing, interest rates and how these are reflected / seen in financial markets as a whole have a quick read of this article at Gold Switzerland which quite accurately outlines my general feelings about gold, usd, bonds and our current set up heading into 2017.

 

 

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Kong Sells Miners – Buying Again Soon

Over the past 2 days. I’ve sold GPL, IMG and NUGT for a 28% return on the trades.

I’m still holding short USD/JPY as well long EUR/USD.

I expect this to be a “shallow dip” with respect to the gold and silver related stocks, so I will be scaling back in to these and more here shortly. On this next entry I am going to do my best to actually “buy and hold” something for at least a couple of weeks / if not months but then again…….we’ll see how that goes.

The larger macro turn in both USD as well commodities is slowly making its way…so there is still plenty of time to start building positions.

 

 

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