dollar short

As we’ve all seen outlined in the previous series of posts – the value if the US Dollar against other currencies/other assets clearly has a direct correlation to the “price of things” ( or commodities  ). In its simplest form – if the USD is worth less, then you are going to need a lot more of them to purchase that barrel of oil , and those lean pork bellies getting loaded in the back.

Domestically ( if indeed you live in the United States) this obviously starts to become a problem, as the cost of things you and your family need, continue to climb higher – because the dollars in your pocket are worth less and less. Oddly, in the current “repressed” economic environment you are somehow going to need to make more money – a lot more money.

However, if you are currently living outside the United States and are holding currencies such as the Euro or Great British Pound, the Loonie or the Kiwi – everything at the farmers market is on sale!  Goods and services for sale in our “global commodities market” become far less expensive ( when you come to see Kong at the currency exchange window out front) because the money in your pocket is worth more!

This is the double-edged sword of the Fed’s current QE plans – as further money printing puts the crimp on people living in the U.S , but in turn promotes exports to those living outside the U.S (due to the “incentive” given with better exchange rates and the perception of value therein.)

A person from Australia very well may book a flight to go on vacation in the U.S with the knowledge that their currency is worth considerably more – and with the perception that “things are cheaper over there”.

I don’t see QE creating jobs at all, but if the desired effect is to increase exports and “incentivize” foreign money to be spent in the U.S well…….you can now see that other countries can get in on that game as well.

It’s called a currency war.

This may seem like common sense to some of you but I thought it important to point out with the analogy of the farmers market and the significance of the U.S dollar exchange rate around the globe.Imagining yourself outside my exchange window, standing next to a group of people with happy smiley faces – ready to go in and buy – with a lot more money than you.

I clipped / edited this as I found it to be most interesting:

A common believe  is that there is no credible substitute for the dollar – so the dollar is safe as the reserve currency.

Another believe is that it would take decades to replace the dollar (central banks need to have “some” assets that hold or increase in value right?).

Increase in value right? …………………………………………………………….obviously the dollar is not doing this.

In truth almost any other asset is a better reserve than the dollar. There is no need for every central bank to pick the same one.

Some believe that it would take the Gulf States many years to replace the dollar as the currency oil is priced in. This is a peculiar claim since Iraq and Iran switched to non-dollar sales in short order (Iraq before the war). As should be expected with a dropping dollar, Iran says it profited from switching to non-dollar oil sales. Other countries can see this and can just as likely – switch too.

Imagine that central banks currently had their assets as 60% Dollars and 30% Euros. If the value of the dollar were to drop in half, then they would have equal value in Euros and Dollars without changing anything.

For thousands of years gold and silver have been used as a store of value. Imagine a central bank with 10% in gold and 90% in dollars. If the dollar goes down by 2 and gold up by 5 it could suddenly have most of its assets in gold.

The point is that the dollar could be replaced as the dominant reserve asset even without central banks ever selling their dollars, just by it’s dropping in value. Several times in the past the dollar has dropped significantly in value in a just a few short years.

Why would now be any different?