Absolutely nothing….I mean “nothing” could thrill me more than this mornings market action.
For medium to long-term traders, there’s generally nothing better than seeing price levels move to “wild extremes” – in the wrong direction.
I’m talking about a “bear market rally” now pushed into the “maximum resistance zone”.
A thing of beauty to say the least.
For those looking at the general correlation between The U.S Dollar and Commodities – look no further, as Gold and Silver haven’t budged.
Chatter from The ECB has simply shifted the flow of currencies from EUR to USD in a small scale/weekly sort of way….and will soon swing back in the longer term direction of choice.
Tuesday at the absolute latest…..USD ripe for the turn.
You know….it’s a tragedy really.
A sad, sad story of deceit.
Unfolding slowly at first, then ramping to climax when “least most expected”.
Think of all the talk in the news…..rates hike expectations, and the “anticipation” surrounding this glorious event when essentially the U.S Fed will “put a stamp” on the economic recovery – and do the right thing.
A rise in interest rates ( as detrimental as it would be to the already “anemic economy” ) would tell the rest of the world that “everything has gone according to plan”, “we’ve done what was needed, and now it’s time for a return to normalcy”. Not gonna happen.
Consider that today’s horrible U.S jobs report ( far lower job growth than forecast ) is just another reason for The Fed to hold off on normalizing rates. Imagine that now……BAD JOBS NUMBERS allow the Fed to just keep on with the only thing it knows how to do . The only thing it “can do” in order to stop the U.S from falling off the cliff into complete and total economic collapse. You got it. You’re getting better at this.
Just print more money.
I predict “at best” a small quarter point raise some time next year – (if that…and only to appease the masses for a short period of time) before the Fed cranks up the printing presses for QE4, QE5 – crushing the U.S Dollar and finally pushing The U.S to the brink.
Perhaps on the heels of some juicy news that Russia has now done this….or China has now done that when really….as I think its become quite clear over the past few years…it’s THE FED that has done this.
As American citizens sit and watch this sad drama unfold…………………..from the cheap seats of course.
I remain short risk as this has been the best trade of the entire year ( going back several weeks now ) and I will “double down” later this year on complete and total U.S Dollar destruction.
Thank you U.S Fed.
You make this sooooo easy.
As I follow Asian markets far closer than I do those of the Western Hemisphere – Look out!
Japan’s just opened and is already down – 520 or 3%….then Hang Seng as well down 3% already!
For those of you in U.S Equities……Look out below.
Gonna get uuuuugly here in weeks to come.
The wait has been brutal, and the USD pairs “wide-ranging behavior” has made it very difficult to pick a specific level, and feel “good” about nailing an entry.
Patience has been pushed to the limit, as the daily volatility continues to wipe out the small guys.
I dare say it again…..but we should see the waterfall commence here very , very soon.
With continued concentration on the JPY pairs vs AUD, NZD and CAD – what can be said?
These trades continue to produce, now I dunno….several hundreds of pips ( 1000’s cumulatively ) in the green.
If you’ve still got a couple pennies in your jeans…..remain short…add short risk as we are clearly moving lower ( and in my view even lower ).
Interestingly……you can’t have a low in Oil…….without a high / turn in USD ( as oil is priced in USD )
I remain short risk…..long JPY and short USD….and as suggested some weeks ago – Feel free to take a look at the profits come mid/late October.
Q: What did the midget say when I asked him for a dollar?
A: “Sorry bud……………………………………….I’m a little short”.
Feel free to pull the trigger anywhere in here today, as most currency pairs have done what was expected – providing for fantastic entries here “short USD” and short “risk in general”.
You’ll see a number of the other usual correlations play out ( as this is so straight forward and obvious ) with commodities moving higher as “the currency that they are priced in” slides lower, then lower…….and lower some more. And yes folks…..even gold and silver!
Again I marvel at the “hoards of financial bloglodytes” peddling this kind of information for money.
This is about as common knowledge as it gets.
Literally……”Introduction to economics 101″.
Learn something here.
As a point of interest. Mark a couple of price levels on any given pair…….NOW.
Then…….sit out the bullshit / retail gong show volatility that will ensue this afternoon.
We will reconvene this afternoon/tomorrow morning as you save yourself the grief of “guessing/hoping” you’ve traded the news correctly.
You won’t miss a thing….in fact you will “gain” as……..
You grow as a trader…..and let the market “tell you” which direction it’s headed all on it’s own.
“Then” you make your play.
So we patiently wait for the Fed rate hike decision, and markets go nowhere.
Tomorrow we will finally get out of this seemingly endless grind sideways – going on nearly a full month now, when The U.S announces it’s decision on rates.
If you are “still” holding short USD and long JPY plays as I am – please be aware. The sudden reaction / volatility surrounding such a major news event demands “mucho respeto” ( much respect ). I anticipate large “sudden” moves in BOTH directions ( no shit sunshine! ) with plans to “add short risk” on any large-scale bounce.
The general lay of the land is just as well explained by Kathy Lien in the link below.
Ms. Lien is so completely and totally boring it would be difficult to read much more than a single paragraph, but in this instance – she illustrates the possible outcomes “well”.
Any way you cut it, global markets will be down considerably into the middle / late October, so to be honest I could care less what happens tomorrow, but for those of you who are a little more “jumpy” than I – be very cautious with your trading prior to the announcement.
If you are out of the market then stay out…then look to pick off opportunities after the gong show.
USD looking prime for complete and total “cliff dive” – alongside “all things risky”.
Even if you are still holding long now ( which is ridiculous by any stretch of the imagination ) it may not be too late.
Get ready for the dump.
Volatility has had equity markets trade up and down over the past week, and currency markets have remained flat.
I assume that will end today.
You won’t survive the next leg down, and if you’re not short USD ( as well long JPY against the planet ) you are clearly on the wrong side of the trade.
But what else is new right? Retail will be retail.
This afternoon I plan to eat copious amounts of over priced Canadian sushi, while sipping vats of the finest sake Japan has to offer.
Come late October………… you can ask me how fat I am.
Get out. Get short. Get bent.
Have it your way.
I marvel at the “trade clowns” looking to pin this downturn on China.
Spoiled little brats, crying to their mommies because the big kid down the street took their ball away.
Infantile. Small minded. Dumb.
Blaming the Chinese…..like the 100’s of thousands of poor farmers there in China, who’ve only recently moved into the larger cities and started small food carts or trinket shops are somehow “responsible” for the decline.
Do you really think any of them are big buyers/seller in the stock markets anyway? Like they’ve got all kind of “extra cash” lying around after barely having enough to eat?
Oh wait…..it’s the government. That’s right. The Chinese government ( with planning so advanced and so “long-term” it would make your head spin) ) has done this to you. Sure….talk about calling the kettle black. How stupid can you be? Naaa….not there in the U.S no, no , no…….the stock market and currency aren’t manipulated there no no…..not at all. Gag.Puke.Hernia.Stroke.
Fact of the matter is – China ( if anyone ) is just fine. It’s the “global economy” that is grinding to a halt while China continues on with its plan. Slowing evolving from an export economy ( selling things to you ) to its very own “consumer economy” ( manufacturing and selling things to its own people ).
You just don’t like it because you are afraid of it.
For what it’s worth……half the planet could drop off into the oceans overnight – and China would just keep on rolling.
The Chinese don’t need you.
You hate knowing that.
Sit down. Shut up.
The pre-market has already “done its thing” and you’ve no chance of survival.
There are no opportunities here today in equities as the Wall St boys have already made their move. ( This doesn’t happen to you when trading Forex as….the market trades 24 hours a day ).
As with yesterday’s plunge ( all pre-market ) or rather – ” inversely ” today the T.V suggests “Equities biggest one day gains” but…….you’ll have none of it.
It’s not for you.
“You” are for “them”.
Just sit down. Sit it out….and get ready for the next “larger leg lower”.
I’m 100% ( yes 100% cash ) and will spend the next few days at the local casino. Burning 100’s on Blackjack for fun.
I gamble all the time….
Just not with my trading.