Yesterday Erased – Short Term Retail Smashed

Are you at least “a little bit” concerned yet?

You should be.

Oil tanking – wreaking havoc across global markets as investors also come to terms with the reality that The ECB’s QE Program is a complete and total dud.



We knew this. It’s not at all a surprise that markets are falling. No surprise at all.

The question begs….do you really think there is sufficient upside left ( perhaps one more “nominal new high”? ) before this thing comes home to roost?

Would it really be worth it to “just hold on” another week / month to see if you seriously squeeze “anything more” out of a market that has gone straight up for essentially 6 years straight?

Madness. Greed and more madness.

When someone suggests that it might be a good idea to “at least” take a little bit off the table considering the run you’ve had….6 years running….you really think you’re gonna see anything more in the way of profits?

Oil will never “ever” see a hundred dollars a barrel again – as global demand ( a product of slowing economic growth ) continues to fall.

Ring the bell on some winners….keep building / holding on to those gold / silver related names and you’ll be golden. Literally.

Kong. Gone.


Perspective – How Small You Really Are

As I’m sure most of you know by now – I’m a space / astro biology / cosmology / physics buff.

Sometimes “looking at the big picture” is difficult for some, as we tend to get tied up with the “little things” in our daily lives, and particularly with trading. Every little squiggle holding such significance for some, but when put in perspective – really nothing more than a “small vibration” in the bigger picture.

Perhaps the following video will give you some perspective, where perspective is truly what’s needed.

Pontificate This – SP 500 Negative For 2015

Pon·tif·i·cate – To express one’s opinions in a way considered annoyingly pompous and dogmatic.

Nothing moves in a straight line forever, and anyone with an outwardly “bullish” standpoint has just seen their paper profits taken back to levels of mid November of 2014 – only in a matter of days.

Did you sell at the top? Ya……as I’ve suggested that “sideways” has been the markets direction for many months now – I guess you only need a couple of days like this to see things as they truly are.

Egomaniacs and emotional traders tied to the idea that “markets will do no wrong” now speechless as 4 months worth of “riding the bull train” sets them back to late 2014. Otta watch 4 months worth of paper profits go up in smoke in a matter of days.

Point being…….this market takes no prisoners as both bulls and bears have their day in the sun, with the advantage seen from either side being slight to non-existent for months now.

Don’t be a f%$kin baby. Don’t be a loud mouth either. Take your wins with humility and do us all a favor….

Feel free to take your losses in silence.

Draghi On Monday – Devil In The Details

There is a very important detail of Draghi’s proposed “ECB QE Program” that looks to have escaped the larger headline news  (suggesting that Draghi’s program will provide the next boost for markets and ultimately save The E.U Zone from disaster ).

Draghi suggested last week that The ECB “will not be buying securities if” their yields are below the ECB’s deposit rate of minus 0.2 percent.

Well…….with Eighty-four of the 346 securities in the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index with rates below zero ( including all German bonds due in six years or less ) it remains to be seen just “what will be bought” and in what kind of amount.

We’ve all seen Draghi “talk the talk” so many times in the past, so again the question comes to mind if “this time”he can “or will” walk the walk.

Imagine the set up for markets so widely expecting the ECB QE Program to “somehow” put a shelf under the economic destruction currently sweeping Europe…only to realize that once again Draghi pulls the carpet out from under, offering far less than what was originally proposed.

It would not surprise me in the least to see the final bottom to be put in on The EURO triggered by a less than expected result from The ECB ‘s “supposed” QE Bazooka.

We’ll find out here on Monday / Tuesday as the program is expected to begin.

U.S Dollar Strength – A Nightmare For U.S Businesses

I’m pleased to see that the mainstream media is finally catching up – with these headlines “now” spattered across the news at Google. Are you finally coming to understand the effects of a strong U.S Dollar? Or are you just thrilled that you can power your generator an extra day or two on the cheap?



As we’ve discussed here earlier – a stronger U.S Dollar is The Fed’s worst nightmare ( as debts payable in USD skyrocket out of control ) and is killing U.S Exports.

The “less than expected GDP” print here this morning isn’t even the half of it, as these numbers are goosed along with “all” U.S Data in a sad attempt to mask what’s really going on. The near term “sideways trading” in USD has done little to excite traders, as with the current gong show playing in The E.U / Greece.

USD has “appeared” to be the “best of the worst” with all paper currencies essentially losing value at breakneck speed.

With commodities stretched about as low as one can imagine, and USD now stretched about as far as “America can bear” it’s really only a matter of time ( a short time ) before the elastic band snaps back in “epic fashion”.

You won’t get out in time. You’ll hang on until you are swimming in a sea of red, looking for a lifeline unless you keep your eyes peeled and have the courage to “sell” when everyone else on the planet is buying.


Nothingness Becomes Somethingness – Patience Required

I remember a time (not too long ago)  when I would return home from my morning walk along the beach – excited to see how the markets where behaving.

Ahh the good ol days, when I’d get back to the house eager to pull up my charts and see the profits. Seeing the market moving “exactly as I anticipated” and revel in the knowledge that “I’ve got this thing figured out”.


When things have traded sideways for this long…those days are now few and far between.

I’ve weathered the storm countless times throughout my career, and have endured extended periods of “nothingness” before but…..this time……this time has been nothing but a cruel exercise in both “patience” and “self-discipline”.

Frankly….I can’t remember the last time I came back to the computer and saw anything of interest. Just day after day of the same “up and down” intraday shakeouts. The same flatlined “nothingness”. The same ol day-to-day “grind” as price action essentially grinds to a halt.

It’s dull. It’s boring. It sucks the life out of hopeful traders looking to “catch a trend” when all they continue to see day after day… the same ol thing.


At least for those of us who’ve “seen this all before” one can take solace in the fact that these extended periods of “nothingness” are almost always followed by periods of “somethingness” ( however short ) and that perseverance, patience and self-discipline always pays off in the end.

We can’t make the market move any faster,

We just plan to be on the right side of it when it does.


USD/JPY – A Disturbance In The Force

Finally! Something of significance!

If you take a look at two pairs such as GBP/JPY as well GBP/USD as a “control” – you’ll see that over the past few days of general GBP strength “both pairs” have been moving higher essentially ruling out any real movement in either JPY or USD.

Zooming in closer and taking a look at each of these pairs on much smaller time frames ( take the 15 minute for example ) you’ll blatantly see the “post Fed minutes” move has GBP/USD pushing higher and GBP/JPY falling off a small cliff.

THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO SEE! ( Yoda may not ).



Suggestion that both USD as well JPY are finally moving “regardless of the currency they are pitted against”.

Obviously the same thing can be seen just taking a look at USD/JPY as  a pair unto itself but….in this case ( looking wider at many pairs ) we see clear suggestion that USD and JPY are moving ( in opposite directions) to  a much larger degree.

The Nikkei has also taken quite a “fast dip” here post Fed minutes so it’s pretty fair to say that markets aren’t particularly pleased with “something”.

Any bets on where The SP 500 and The Canadian TSX are likely headed next?

US Dollar Rinse Job – Now Complete

The U.S Dollar as well as U.S equities have failed to breach the highs from Fridays “Sell Risk” post.

Equity markets look to be rolling over here “again” at the 2040-2060 level, while USD takes out the last of the smaller traders.

One can assume that things are now “hanging in the balance” with respect to an outcome with the current “Greece situation” but in all….I really don’t think it matters.

The markets move on much larger time frames, and whatever is to become of Greece ( all will turn out fine in my view ) will just be another silly headline geared to moving the masses.

Greece is not leaving the EU Zone. It will continue to “hang in there” as well continue to keep you up at night – if you let it.

Countdown till the “real action” starts, as we are flat as a pancake “yet again”.



The Week Ahead – For Traders And Morons Alike

Chinese Manufacturing PMI came in Saturday with a miss at 49.8 – again signalling that the world’s “economic power house” is now in contraction, so I wouldn’t be expecting a big “up day” tomorrow morning.

One needs to “completely ignore” the current slew of media headlines as every Central Bank / manipulated media outlet on the planet is on “full alert” to do whatever they possibly can to assure the general investment community that “all is well – there is nothing to worry about at all”. Right.

European stocks have had their “booster shot” due to the QE announcement from The ECB, but have now been rejected at the previous highs.



As totally frustrating as the last few weeks ( if not months ) of trading has been, we’ve now seen the injection of another “trillion” in proposed asset purchases and still…..even still – markets can’t move any higher. Tops are long, tops are drawn out, tops are a pain in the ass but……now with The ECB “done” – seriously…….what’s left from the CB’s to push this thing any higher? Zip.

EUR / USD finally showing solid signs of bottoming / finding a low.



Interesting to note The CRB Commodities Index, as one could entertain the scenario that money comes out of ridiculously bloated / bullshit pumped up stocks, and flows into commodities.



The U.S Dollar rampage should conclude here pronto – as it’s exhausted to say the least. Two “doji candles in a row” signalling obvious “indecision” and with commodities looking to bottom out we understand the correlation. A weaker US Dollar ( finally ) = rising commodity costs.



The SP 500 along side “risk in general” has been weak for some time now…but still hasn’t “kicked off” on any kind of lasting downtrend. The whipsaws / sideways trading has been a pain, but all with conclude here shortly.

Even if The SP “does” get a bounce to around 2040 area…it doesn’t make a hair of difference medium term. The next leg down will bring tears to your eyes, fear to your wife and a fat hole in your account should you decide to stay the course.



The Canadian TSX as well as virtually all equities indexes globally are about to take the pain as The Nikkei ( suggested to reverse a few days ago ) has also hit overhead resistance and now looks to dump.

Currency wise little has changed really – as the general theme of long JPY vs the commodity currencies as well short USD vs E.U currencies still stands.