Picking Coca In Peru – Beats Following Markets

The hard cold truth.

There is very little “if any” money to be made on the long side. Period.

If you love “anguish and grief” then great. You can do your best to push though this “as a bull” but……you will likely wake up “morning after morning – for weeks on end” hoping to see a few extra pennies added to your account, only to find more shitty ads on CNBC, an empty sugar bowl, rats in your attic and a dull pain behind your eyes.

With a general view that we ultimately move “significantly lower”….this thing is doing “this” at best:

SPX_APRIL_23_Forex_Kong

SPX_APRIL_23_Forex_Kong

Who could be bothered?

Short of looking for some “big red candles” to follow – I could just as well have a completely  “alternate identity” picking coca leaves in the mountains of Peru as opposed to contemplating this.

Imagine it going sideways for “the next 4 months” and I think you get the picture.

Big red candles or bust folks…otherwise….you’re just wasting your time.

 

I AM STILL EXTREMELY SHORT USD.

 

Up Then Down – Forex Markets Wobble

It’s my feeling that this continued sideways action is likely to persist into early May – giving us little “tradeable action” in any kind of medium term sense.

The following charts really don’t suggest any advantage “bullish or bearish” as these longer term “triangle patterns” continue to plod along to the ultimate point of confluence – when a solid direction will ultimately be seen.

It’s a real drag. It can’t be helped, but what is important is being able to identify it for what it is….and trading ( or not trading ) accordingly. I for one see no real advantage putting money at risk here…..until of course we see something solid unfold.

How long can this go on?

It can “and will” continue as long as the big boys continue to plan and plot positions, dragging in as much retail money as they possibly can before pulling the pin.

I’ve essentially given up trying to convince anyone that the best possible thing to do at this junction is to bank your profits, call it a “good run” and politely move to the sidelines – while the final stages of this “massive distribution at the top” plays out as….human beings will be human beings.

Greed generally being the driving force. I’ve learned enough over the years to appreciate that, there is very little “more” one can expect to milk from this thing on the long side of risk, and that it makes the most sense to just get yourself prepared and positioned for the next move lower so……..if you want to push it – feel free but so so with caution.

USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

We can see that most anything “USD related” continues to grind sideways until this triangle finally resolves itself. Resolving lower in my view so……I don’t see any “edge” jumping into larger positions short of just letting it play out.

EUR/USD – nothing to really offer.

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

EUR_USD_April_20_Forex_Kong

Looking at a weekly chart I’d be more inclined to watch GBP for a better risk vs reward.

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

GBP_USD_Forex_Kong_April_20

With consideration for JPY related pairs…they look pretty ripe for short entries anywhere in here with AUD/JPY suggesting that “risk” could just as well turn lower any day.

AUD_JPY_April_20_Forex_Kong

AUD_JPY_April_20_Forex_Kong

I’m looking for another decent down day in risk, and an opportunity to get short the JPY related pairs here very soon, while waiting on USD realted pairs to finally show their hand.

I don’t have any interest in jumping into anything short of seeing something “solid” develop as far as trend goes.

This is not a trending environment regardless of the usual day to day bullshit media suggesting things are “always going higher”.

The big up day in DOW today was widely promoted as “a huge upswing in stocks” while most people have already forgotten Friday’s wipeout. Net net….its – 78 in my books over the past 2 days right?

Sheep will be sheep.

Small orders if tading at all. Waiting for a shoe to drop.

 

 

 

 

Dow Futures Down -225 – China Crashing

Chinese stock futures are now down almost 7% – the 2nd biggest drop in 7 years.

Down futures down -225 Completely erasing April before you even get out of bed, and get a chance to have a look.

You see what I’m saying here? This thing will not give you “half a chance” to get out with your skin intact if you don’t have the foresight to consider  “ringing the bell” and “taking some off the table” BEFORE IT HAPPENS.

You “powerbulls” can take one on the chin this morning – and you deserve it.

I don’t have alot to say these days, as you know where I stand on the global economy in general, and this puff ball/hot air balloon you call a market.

Looks like you’ve ignored the last two posts…..and the “50 points lower” is “- 250 points lower” before the days has even begun.

Good luck with that, I’m off shopping for a new boat.

Ring The Bell – I Marvel At The Greed

Are you dense?

Let me ask you…….What “will it take” for you to call your broker and ring the bell on your top 5 winners? That one account….the one that has performed “sooooo well” and is just sitting there “dripping with profit”.

What’s it gonna take? 5 points higher? 10 points higher?

How about 50 points lower? Ya……that’s what I figured. Sell on red – as retail will always do.

I remember a wise man telling me once “you buy low ( on red ) and you sell high ( on green ).

It’s simply amazing to me that retail investors continue to “define themselves” by doing the complete opposite so consistently that an entire industry ( the financial industry ) has grown to the mammoth that it is…..simply laying in wait.

Retail will do as retail will do. Make a change. Do something different today.

Bank “a few” of your winners and go for a nice long walk. You’ll feel good.

And you won’t miss a thing.

I remain short USD.

Take Some Off The Table – Just Do It!

With all that we do in our normal daily lives, inevitably there comes a time when things just don’t seem to “do it for us” – as they once did.

The music doesn’t flow, the words don’t come, the canvas sits blank – staring back at you like a long cold winter, and nothing really “does much” to get you up and out of bad…each and every day.

Your’e bored. Things haven’t changed.There is little news, and life just seems to be an endless string of events – repeating themselves day in and day out.

Well then get off your ass Bucko!

I’m bored stiff watching this bullshit market swing back n forth in “no man’s land” day after day, but what? You think that’s gonna get me down? Fat chance of that! It’s just a market for Christ’ sake!

Get up! Get going! Go find something “productive” to do with your time, and don’t let this thing get you down.

Its pretty obvious at this point, that the majority of traders and investors alike have now fallen asleep at the wheel. It sounds to me like most people are completely satisfied with the idea that “things will never go down” and have even become used to the idea that “things may not be going up” either.

People seem to have grown accustom now…..to this endless back n forth / stagnation of price, content to “hold” but with less and less expectation of much further return. Sounds complacent to me.

That sounds like a pretty good reason to take something off the table if you ask me. Profits are only profits once they are sitting in your account.

I’m taking my second entry on adding to USD shorts here this afternoon., with a final installment likely early next week for my last kick at the can before I go find something else to do too.

Life is too short to sit here watching this thing go nowhere.

Long Trades Sink – Kong Waits On Private Island

If you’ve heard me say it once – I’ve said it a million times. A strong U.S Dollar will not be tolerated, as it represents a “red-hot poker to the eye” of both the corporate American “and” The U.S Fed.

You can fire up with all the fancy economic bullshit you can rustle from the countless “pro risk/pro USD/pro economic recovery loser blogs” out there ( and I hope you do ) and it won’t make a stitch of difference.

This thing will be cut off at the knees as U.S earnings plummet to the depth of an ocean.

Lets just call it the “Sea of Recession”.

You’ve heard of it but have no f*^*king clue where it is…..perhaps try looking in your backyard.

Short USD trades are once again “up and running” as we prepare to snap up all those long trades – soon going overboard.

I’d take a look at U.S Equities as well and consider that when BOTH the U.S Dollar AND Stocks start dropping like a rock….the big boys will have already taken the life rafts to shore.

I’ll already be on my private island – scanning my beaches for washed up traders and radio shack suits.

Do you think New Yorker’s can even swim?

I doubt it.

Forex Kong Goes Dark – Markets Go Nowhere

Recent travels have taken me to the far reaches of the planet…..far far away from these pesky markets, deep into the darkest flora and fauna this world has to offer.

I am literally in the middle of nowhere…..and loving every minute of it, short of the “pancake sized” blisters on the back of my heels from having to actually wear shoes / boots. It’s slowed me down a touch….but I’m on the mend now.

No Internet. No Television and barely a scrape of food for miles, let alone a crisp cold beer. I freeze my ass off at night and am now as white as a ghost, blending in the best I can with “wonderful savages” who inhabit this land.

I speak nothing of markets as I am now deeply entrenched in far more “pressing matters” the likes of which I’m not at liberty to discuss – at least for today that is. ut I can tell you this: Something big is about to happen.

Cryptic as it may be, there is no question in my mind that “change is in the air” and considering how stagnant things have been – it’s about freakin time.

I will be back on top of markets as I am now this “mountain we call life” from this afternoon on.

I appreciate your patience but hey……did you really even miss me?

Yesterday Erased – Short Term Retail Smashed

Are you at least “a little bit” concerned yet?

You should be.

Oil tanking – wreaking havoc across global markets as investors also come to terms with the reality that The ECB’s QE Program is a complete and total dud.

destroyed

destroyed

We knew this. It’s not at all a surprise that markets are falling. No surprise at all.

The question begs….do you really think there is sufficient upside left ( perhaps one more “nominal new high”? ) before this thing comes home to roost?

Would it really be worth it to “just hold on” another week / month to see if you seriously squeeze “anything more” out of a market that has gone straight up for essentially 6 years straight?

Madness. Greed and more madness.

When someone suggests that it might be a good idea to “at least” take a little bit off the table considering the run you’ve had….6 years running….you really think you’re gonna see anything more in the way of profits?

Oil will never “ever” see a hundred dollars a barrel again – as global demand ( a product of slowing economic growth ) continues to fall.

Ring the bell on some winners….keep building / holding on to those gold / silver related names and you’ll be golden. Literally.

Kong. Gone.

 

Perspective – How Small You Really Are

As I’m sure most of you know by now – I’m a space / astro biology / cosmology / physics buff.

Sometimes “looking at the big picture” is difficult for some, as we tend to get tied up with the “little things” in our daily lives, and particularly with trading. Every little squiggle holding such significance for some, but when put in perspective – really nothing more than a “small vibration” in the bigger picture.

Perhaps the following video will give you some perspective, where perspective is truly what’s needed.

Pontificate This – SP 500 Negative For 2015

Pon·tif·i·cate – To express one’s opinions in a way considered annoyingly pompous and dogmatic.

Nothing moves in a straight line forever, and anyone with an outwardly “bullish” standpoint has just seen their paper profits taken back to levels of mid November of 2014 – only in a matter of days.

Did you sell at the top? Ya……as I’ve suggested that “sideways” has been the markets direction for many months now – I guess you only need a couple of days like this to see things as they truly are.

Egomaniacs and emotional traders tied to the idea that “markets will do no wrong” now speechless as 4 months worth of “riding the bull train” sets them back to late 2014. Otta watch 4 months worth of paper profits go up in smoke in a matter of days.

Point being…….this market takes no prisoners as both bulls and bears have their day in the sun, with the advantage seen from either side being slight to non-existent for months now.

Don’t be a f%$kin baby. Don’t be a loud mouth either. Take your wins with humility and do us all a favor….

Feel free to take your losses in silence.